BristowWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like the 11th-12th might be a significant FZRA threat. The 0z runs had it as well. what I find intriguing about it on Para is how even after the main batch clears hr 162 there is more moisture behind it with cold still flowing in...my favorite events are the ones that last a while and don't clear right away...FZDZ is cool to me... and having changeable precip/temps make it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 old GFS 18z has something similar but slightly later...CAD with some form of overrunning precip...not sure of type or amount but CAD looks good to this weenie eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The thing you have to keep in mind is that prior to some, if not a lot of the "positive" NAO storms, the NAO was probably negative before the storm hit (perfect example is our favorite January 2000 surprise storm 01/25/2000). That would have blocked up the pattern prior to the storm enough to allow the storm to form and hit the area nicely. So while the index would show positive while it's snowing here, the damage would have already been done by the block. Also look at how even the majority of the positive storms are very close to low positive or neutral. If you really want to see how important the NAO is, try going above a +0.5 on that chart; not many storms above 4" while below -0.5 there's many more. Yes, that's a good point. I guess taking the derivative of the recent daily NAO indices is a better predictor. Also, I'm guessing a -NAO that's too strong (i.e., too negative) probably suppresses most storms, hence we don't see a lot of 4"+ storms when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Weeklies show the relax period being relatively short lived (unlike the Dec pattern). This assumes there even is a relax period once we move forward 2 weeks. Really nice -epo look late month into Feb. Ao/nao don't look great but don't look bad. If we can have another nice -epo in the next month combined with a non raging +nao, I think we can all live with it. At this point, a neutral nao is the new negative. Dr Cohen's ao forecast ain't lookin so hot still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Weeklies show the relax period being relatively short lived (unlike the Dec pattern). This assumes there even is a relax period once we move forward 2 weeks. Really nice -epo look late month into Feb. Ao/nao don't look great but don't look bad. If we can have another nice -epo in the next month combined with a non raging +nao, I think we can all live with it. At this point, a neutral nao is the new negative. Dr Cohen's ao forecast ain't lookin so hot still. ao forecast is lookin' uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 check out the euro control storm for next week. Just wild...wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 NO ONE SHOULD check out the euro control storm for next week. Just wild...wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 12Z sunday euro ens AO PLOTS from today ESRL shows NAO staying positive EPO currently negative goes neutral by JAN 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 NO ONE SHOULD don't tell JB that did you just cancel winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 DEC QBO did drop (again) to -25.35 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index idk if that is an average number or what it was on the last day of the month either way, let's hope it has switched by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 12Z sunday euro ens AAA.jpg AO PLOTS from today AO.png ESRL shows NAO staying positive EPO currently negative goes neutral by JAN 20 4panel.png looks good.Indicies heading in the right direction. Woof(x2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 looks like Judas betrayed the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 too bad they haven't updated the teleconnection indices the way the models have been changing, who knows what it would have looked like today off 00Z 1/5 data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 said it 10 day sago.... MY WINTER FORECAST is a bust that doesnt mean NO winter ...it means what I thought is going to happen is NOT happening I dont have to wait to Mid feb to know A +B+C+D = forecast if C doesnt show up... the forecast cannot possibly verify don't tell JB that did you just cancel winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 said it 10 day sago.... MY WINTER FORECAST is a bust that doesnt mean NO winter ...it means what I thought is going to happen is NOT happening I dont have to wait to Mid feb to know A +B+C+D = forecast if C doesnt show up... the forecast cannot possibly verify are i think you are still okay. Nobody called wall to wall winter. December Ninos usually suck. Plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1 Week of cold is nice but its does NOT "make" a winter forecast unless something changes massively AND soon we are looking at one of the great massive weather busts of all time since July almost every day every few days every week 1976-77 / or 77-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah that's true DT. I thought that was admirable. Many long range folks just resort to spin when things don't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1 Week of cold is nice but its does NOT "make" a winter forecast unless something changes massively AND soon we are looking at one of the great massive weather busts of all time since July almost every day every few days every week 1976-77 / or 77-78 JB has been talking about how its been colder than last year. Anyway...this would be a massive weatherbell fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think Feb may have some surprises. If this a total bust though, we have to be more cautious with the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 kind of silly to cancel winter with a snow event on the door step and 2 weeks of below normal temps incoming on Jan 5.I am encouraged today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 i think we see a snowstorm on the 15th/16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 i think we see a snowstorm on the 15th/16thCalling for a snowstorm 10 days out in this pattern is definitely not silly. Tho I will be gone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 again I did not .. NOT cancel winter all I was and all I am referring to is MY winter forecastLook if we get a big east coast snowstorm in MID FEB and one in say early MarchI STILL busted. I will not go around saying "my winter was partially right " kind of silly to cancel winter with a snow event on the door step and 2 weeks of below normal temps incoming on Jan 5.I am encouraged today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 i think we see a snowstorm on the 15th/16th That's KA's ice storm date, isn't it ? If it is ice instead of snow that would be more impressive than nailing Christmas Day from September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That's KA's ice storm date, isn't it ? If it is ice instead of snow that would be more impressive than nailing Christmas Day from September. KA calls for an ice storm every year. We havent gotten one in like 15 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 DT, there was such a compelling signal for a -ao winter through the fall that it would have been nearly impossible to call for what we've had so far. We had all the early signs and not just the sai/sce/opi stuff. We had strong blocking episodes in both Oct and Nov. It all pointed towards a winter with at least decent blocking. We still have time of course to at least get a decent period of a -ao but it's clearly not gone as planned for just about every single pro and amateur forecast. I personally don't foresee a favorable anomalous -ao this month. IMO- if Jan goes + on the means and Feb does go -, the sai still missed the mark by a good margin overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 0z Euro and ensembles real interesting in the 1/13-1/15 range as we go back to a nino configuration..still a +NAO....would be hard to get a storm not to cut west and/or miller B, but we can cobble something together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 0z Euro and ensembles real interesting in the 1/13-1/15 range as we go back to a nino configuration..still a +NAO....would be hard to get a storm not to cut west and/or miller B, but we can cobble something together... We still have a positive PNA so there is some hope though after Jan 15 , the ensembles start crashing heights on the west coast which without a neg nao will make it hard to do anythingso we better make hay or hope the ensembles are wrong in day 11-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We still have a positive PNA so there is some hope though after Jan 15 , the ensembles start crashing heights on the west coast which without a neg nao will make it hard to do anythingso we better make hay or hope the ensembles are wrong in day 11-15 range. GEFS is starting to show ridging building in AK and the low heights in the goa going away at the end of the run. Cold starts rebuilding in western canada. Pretty good agreement on a relax for at least 3-4 days though. Hopefully it doesn't become annoying if/when is sets up. GEFS has been leading the way this month while the euro has been struggling in d11-15 to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro ensembles starting to like the d8-10 window. Growing coastal signal. Lots of snowy solutions showing up (I'm sure some are mixed bags). Mean snowfall is 2.5" but some big hits mixed in. This could be a great week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.