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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Looks like the 11th-12th might be a significant FZRA threat. The 0z runs had it as well.

what I find intriguing about it on Para is how even after the main batch clears hr 162 there is more moisture behind it with cold still flowing in...my favorite events are the ones that last a while and don't clear right away...FZDZ is cool to me... and having changeable precip/temps make it interesting

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The thing you have to keep in mind is that prior to some, if not a lot of the "positive" NAO storms, the NAO was probably negative before the storm hit (perfect example is our favorite January 2000 surprise storm 01/25/2000). That would have blocked up the pattern prior to the storm enough to allow the storm to form and hit the area nicely. So while the index would show positive while it's snowing here, the damage would have already been done by the block. Also look at how even the majority of the positive storms are very close to low positive or neutral. If you really want to see how important the NAO is, try going above a +0.5 on that chart; not many storms above 4" while below -0.5 there's many more.

Yes, that's a good point.  I guess taking the derivative of the recent daily NAO indices is a better predictor.

Also, I'm guessing a -NAO that's too strong (i.e., too negative) probably suppresses most storms, hence we don't see a lot of 4"+ storms when that happens.

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Weeklies show the relax period being relatively short lived (unlike the Dec pattern). This assumes there even is a relax period once we move forward 2 weeks. Really nice -epo look late month into Feb.

Ao/nao don't look great but don't look bad. If we can have another nice -epo in the next month combined with a non raging +nao, I think we can all live with it.

At this point, a neutral nao is the new negative.

Dr Cohen's ao forecast ain't lookin so hot still.

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Weeklies show the relax period being relatively short lived (unlike the Dec pattern). This assumes there even is a relax period once we move forward 2 weeks. Really nice -epo look late month into Feb.

Ao/nao don't look great but don't look bad. If we can have another nice -epo in the next month combined with a non raging +nao, I think we can all live with it.

At this point, a neutral nao is the new negative.

Dr Cohen's ao forecast ain't lookin so hot still.

ao forecast is lookin' uh oh

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 said it  10 day sago....    MY WINTER FORECAST is  a  bust

 

that doesnt mean NO winter  ...it means   what I thought is going to happen  is NOT   happening 

 
I dont have to wait to  Mid feb to know
 

 A +B+C+D    = forecast

 

 if  C  doesnt  show up... the forecast cannot possibly    verify

 

don't tell JB that

 

did you just cancel winter?

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 said it  10 day sago....    MY WINTER FORECAST is  a  bust

 

that doesnt mean NO winter  ...it means   what I thought is going to happen  is NOT   happening 

 

I dont have to wait to  Mid feb to know

 

 A +B+C+D    = forecast

 

 if  C  doesnt  show up... the forecast cannot possibly    verify are

i think you are still okay. Nobody called wall to wall winter. December Ninos usually suck. Plenty of time left

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1 Week of cold  is nice  but its  does  NOT   "make"  a winter forecast

 

unless something  changes massively  AND  soon    we are looking at  one of the great  massive weather  
busts of all time 

 

since July   almost every day    every  few  days  every week   

 

1976-77 / or 77-78

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1 Week of cold  is nice  but its  does  NOT   "make"  a winter forecast

 

unless something  changes massively  AND  soon    we are looking at  one of the great  massive weather  

busts of all time 

 

since July   almost every day    every  few  days  every week   

 

1976-77 / or 77-78

JB has been talking about  how its been colder than last year. Anyway...this would be a massive weatherbell fail

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again I  did   not ..  NOT   cancel winter 

all I  was  and  all I am  referring to is MY winter  forecast

Look  if we get a  big  east coast snowstorm  in  MID  FEB and one in say  early March

I  STILL busted.    I  will not   go around saying  "my winter   was partially  right "

 

kind of silly to cancel winter with a snow event on the door step and 2 weeks of below normal temps incoming on Jan 5.I am encouraged today

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DT, there was such a compelling signal for a -ao winter through the fall that it would have been nearly impossible to call for what we've had so far. We had all the early signs and not just the sai/sce/opi stuff. We had strong blocking episodes in both Oct and Nov. It all pointed towards a winter with at least decent blocking.

We still have time of course to at least get a decent period of a -ao but it's clearly not gone as planned for just about every single pro and amateur forecast. I personally don't foresee a favorable anomalous -ao this month. IMO- if Jan goes + on the means and Feb does go -, the sai still missed the mark by a good margin overall.

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0z Euro and ensembles real interesting in the 1/13-1/15 range as we go back to a nino configuration..still a +NAO....would be hard to get a storm not to cut west and/or miller B, but we can cobble something together...

We still have a positive PNA so there is some hope though after Jan 15 , the ensembles start crashing heights on the west coast which without a neg nao will make it hard to do anythingso we better make hay or hope the ensembles are wrong in day 11-15 range.

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We still have a positive PNA so there is some hope though after Jan 15 , the ensembles start crashing heights on the west coast which without a neg nao will make it hard to do anythingso we better make hay or hope the ensembles are wrong in day 11-15 range.

GEFS is starting to show ridging building in AK and the low heights in the goa going away at the end of the run. Cold starts rebuilding in western canada. Pretty good agreement on a relax for at least 3-4 days though. Hopefully it doesn't become annoying if/when is sets up.

GEFS has been leading the way this month while the euro has been struggling in d11-15 to some extent.

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