olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 BTW, instantweathermaps now has individual gefs members, as well as the mean. It seems a step better than the psu site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 BTW, instantweathermaps now has individual gefs members, as well as the mean. It seems a step better than the psu site. Thanks for the heads up! Pretty cool addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 nothing ever trends in our favor. Nothing Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DEC QBO did drop (again) to -25.35 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index idk if that is an average number or what it was on the last day of the month either way, let's hope it has switched by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DEC QBO did drop (again) to -25.35 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index idk if that is an average number or what it was on the last day of the month either way, let's hope it has switched by now That's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully we cash in the next 7-14. This pattern still kinda sucks and looks like it's going to get worse again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 well the cmc shows a little bit of hope with next weeks system comming some what up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully we cash in the next 7-14. This pattern still kinda sucks and looks like it's going to get worse again. whats going on in west virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 well the cmc shows a little bit of hope with next weeks system comming some what up the coast. CMC has given me about 100 inches of snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 whats going on in west virginia? February is light your camper on fire for warmth month there I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 whats going on in west virginia? Coal fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro looks to have a little sumpin' on day 6.5-7 again looks cold enough, though barely, probably light, but I see cold air on the move to our west to save the day....or push everything east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 whats going on in west virginia? Damn. That is not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro looks to have a little sumpin' on day 6.5-7 again looks cold enough, though barely, probably light, but I see cold air on the move to our west to save the day....or push everything east? GEFS has a grab bag. Only consistency is that all the members have a series of disorganized little waves meandering around the east coast. The mean has 0.01-.1" of precip in every panel for about 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro has .13 of snow next week for western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 BTW, instantweathermaps now has individual gefs members, as well as the mean. It seems a step better than the psu site. No good can come from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 euro gives everyone about an inch..maybe 2 next week. All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Storm signal on the GEFS around the 15th-16th with a trough swinging through. Sort of looks Miller B-ish at 500mb. Then the pattern breaks down and the +PNA/-EPO goes away so we probably turn mild for several days, verbatim. By the end of the run, pattern certainly looks like mid-December, but with January climo, that's probably not an automatic death sentence. Could also see how the pattern could keep evolving into a favorable state as the high heights in Ontario/Quebec keep receding toward Greenland and Baffin Island. Also a suggestion that ridging returns out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 euro gives everyone about an inch..maybe 2 next week. All snow The pattern on the euro isn't awful, because I think it is the pattern you want if the ATL sucks...Which is a weak nina pattern with a +PNA. That can be a productive pattern. Negative height anomalies to our north and NW and a weak SE ridge. We go to a Nino pattern at the end of the run, but I think without a -NAO it is actually a worse pattern for us, even with its reverse 500mb height structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hey folks. Seems like models are moving into a classic Nino/+PDO pattern again. The difference between this upcoming round and the last is that we are climatologically colder. You can almost get away with the pattern being advertised down the road, even if the polar jet heights are above normal. Jan 5-10 obviously is bringing the cold and small threats and we may have something toward the end of this cold shot, as models have been advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The pattern on the euro isn't awful, because I think it is the pattern you want if the ATL sucks...Which is a weak nina pattern with a +PNA. That can be a productive pattern. Negative height anomalies to our north and NW and a weak SE ridge. We go to a Nino pattern at the end of the run, but I think without a -NAO it is actually a worse pattern for us, even with its reverse 500mb height structure. The pattern for the 15 or 16 isn't bad if it were close to verifying. The positive PNA with a trough digging enough to support a low off the southeast coast. I'd be happy if it were a day 5 forecast as I think the look of the trough would promote a low closer to the coast then forecast but the 500h pattern probably will be different than forecast. I do like seeing a positive PNA. Above map shows that a positive PNA is really important if you want a 4 inch or greater event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hey folks. Seems like models are moving into a classic Nino/+PDO pattern again. The difference between this upcoming round and the last is that we are climatologically colder. You can almost get away with the pattern being advertised down the road, even if the polar jet heights are above normal. Jan 5-10 obviously is bringing the cold and small threats and we may have something toward the end of this cold shot, as models have been advertising. What's up HM....When is our -NAO coming? January 20th-25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The pattern for the 15 or 16 isn't bad if it were close to verifying. The positive PNA with a trough digging enough to support a low off the southeast coast. I'd be happy if it were a day 5 forecast as I think the look of the trough would promote a low closer to the coast then forecast but the 500h pattern probably will be different than forecast. I do like seeing a positive PNA. PNA VS_NAO_snow.png Above map shows that a positive PNA is really important if you want a 4 inch or greater event. that's interesting...basically, the data suggests that a +PNA is much more important than a -NAO, when it comes to 4+ inch snowstorms in DC. People seem to obsess more about a -NAO, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 that's interesting...basically, the data suggests that a +PNA is much more important than a -NAO, when it comes to 4+ inch snowstorms in DC. People seem to obsess more about a -NAO, though. For the really big one, I think it helps having a negative NAO. If you look at the AO, it's not quite as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 that's interesting...basically, the data suggests that a +PNA is much more important than a -NAO, when it comes to 4+ inch snowstorms in DC. People seem to obsess more about a -NAO, though. The thing you have to keep in mind is that prior to some, if not a lot of the "positive" NAO storms, the NAO was probably negative before the storm hit (perfect example is our favorite January 2000 surprise storm 01/25/2000). That would have blocked up the pattern prior to the storm enough to allow the storm to form and hit the area nicely. So while the index would show positive while it's snowing here, the damage would have already been done by the block. Also look at how even the majority of the positive storms are very close to low positive or neutral. If you really want to see how important the NAO is, try going above a +0.5 on that chart; not many storms above 4" while below -0.5 there's many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 whats going on in west virginia? I'm going to Snowshoe in February.. that explains it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Para...18z...hr 150....something to look at other than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Para...18z...hr 150....something to look at other than nothing Looks like the 11th-12th might be a significant FZRA threat. The 0z runs had it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like the 11th-12th might be a significant FZRA threat. The 0z runs had it as well. 12Z GFS Ensemble guidance at least supports a wintry type system. qpf: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=prec&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201501051200%26HH%3D168 temps:http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=201501051200&VAR=tmp2&HH=168&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=72503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like the 11th-12th might be a significant FZRA threat. The 0z runs had it as well. IP I think...but no expert..again better than watching nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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