stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will say though, the general idea is still there, so this isn't a true step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I really can't remember a winter that has been this horrendous at this point and "reasonable" foreseeable future for the entire east coast, save Maine The bad years (2011-12, 2001-02) were way worse at this point. This feels more like 2006-07 or 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will say though, the general idea is still there, so this isn't a true step back. We always seem to get the High when we don't need it. Looks squashed to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The bad years (2011-12, 2001-02) were way worse at this point. This feels more like 2006-07 or 2008-09. well, I said so far and foreseeable future and there's nothing on the horizon for NE thru 1/15 and we have the clipper....maybe? so this year would be worse than those years I believe thru 1/15 admittedly, I'm going on memory and "feel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This winter reminds me of the period from 1972 to 1975 in New England. It would get cold, but most of the storms went up the Ohio River Valley. I remember a lot of storms starting cold and ending up warm. There must have been exceptions, but I don't have the data or the knowledge to interpret it. I'm just an observer but wonder if there are some clues for us from those years? The Northeast has not had a cold winter that was snowless in quite awhile, to be honest we're very overdue for that. I don't know if the MA has had one, I'd imagine 03-04 was probably close to it for some people that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The Northeast has not had a cold winter that was snowless in quite awhile, to be honest we're very overdue for that. I don't know if the MA has had one, I'd imagine 03-04 was probably close to it for some people that way. Considering Dec was +4, I don't think this winter will make cold status either way in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Mega -NAO on the 18z GFS only 15 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Mega -NAO on the 18z GFS only 15 days away That would be ironic to still get warm and wet with -NAO...because that is how it looks to me..but that is so far away that doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS is advertising some nice blocking that aligns with the period that other knowledgeable mets have been calling for a pattern change around 1/20. Maybe it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS is advertising some nice blocking that aligns with the period that other knowledgeable mets have been calling for a pattern change around 1/20. Maybe it's something. Gefs looks like a mid December redux on tap. Maybe climo will toss us a bone if we go down that path. Not a pretty look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The -NAO will block the warm air from departing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 The -NAO will block the warm air from departing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Omg Ji...that is some funny S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The bad years (2011-12, 2001-02) were way worse at this point. This feels more like 2006-07 or 2008-09. The question I have is: is the cold shot next week (which looks like it'll be fairly impressive) the start of a permanent shift for the rest of the winter like 06/07, or is it just a temporary blip and the warmth returns the following week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The question I have is: is the cold shot next week (which looks like it'll be fairly impressive) the start of a permanent shift for the rest of the winter like 06/07, or is it just a temporary blip and the warmth returns the following week? Anything beyond 5 days is a crap shoot...I mean we can't hold a solution for more than 1 model run unless it's a cutter and warm front combo of course so everything is on the table ...just my non expert opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Anything beyond 5 days is a crap shoot...I mean we can't hold a solution for more than 1 model run unless it's a cutter and warm front combo of course so everything is on the table ...just my non expert opinion. Yeah, it was more of a rhetorical question, no one can really answer at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yeah, it was more of a rhetorical question, no one can really answer at this point.It's pretty simple. As long as a negative ao doesn't happen, there will be no long duration cold period. Not seeing that anywhere in the next 2 weeks. We can benefit from temporary things like a +pna/-epo but relying on them for a long winter period rarely works out if ever. Those features look favorable for a little while but we will almost certainly warm up for a time unless we get help elsewhere. Any warm period could be brief or annoying. No way to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS is dry and cold for the weekend. I guess the one good thing is that it won't look like that in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS is dry and cold for the weekend. I guess the one good thing is that it won't look like that in a few runs. Time to focus all mental snow weenie energy on the clipper and arctic front squalls. By the time that fun is done we'll have a good idea what happens next. IMO- seems pretty unlikely that we won't get more winter wx through the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Gfs has a closed 576dm ridge over Iceland at 336. It keeps dropping cookie crumbs at a very different pattern that includes blocking down the line. I personally doubt it but it's been at least 5-6 runs with interesting features. I suppose we can't totally ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z Euro and gfs ens very different in the LR. Gfs is a pattern we can live with and probably score a time or two....Euro is, as others have mentioned, a repeat of the Dec pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 At this point, no one should care one bit what the Euro shows in the long-range, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z Euro and gfs ens very different in the LR. Gfs is a pattern we can live with and probably score a time or two....Euro is, as others have mentioned, a repeat of the Dec pattern. The 06Z GEFS ensembles have two clusters that are equally divided withone showing above normal temps for us in the 11-15 day period while the other has below normal for the same time period. Both the Euro ens clusters covering the same time period have us above normal for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 not saying it's right or where it will go from here, but 12Z operational thru 216 hrs. does look better around the Pole and Greenland than what we've been seeing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150105+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 not saying it's right or where it will go from here, but 12Z operational thru 216 hrs. does look better around the Pole and Greenland than what we've been seeing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150105+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model better shot http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_216_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150105+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Both the GFS brothers are suppressed for the 12th timeframe. It's a nice setup up for us with strong highs over us and confluence to the north to hold in the cold air. Would be our luck the one time we get that setup the confluence is TOO strong. But I wouldn't be surprised if things come north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Both the GFS brothers are suppressed for the 12th timeframe. It's a nice setup up for us with strong highs over us and confluence to the north to hold in the cold air. Would be our luck the one time we get that setup the confluence is TOO strong. But I wouldn't be surprised if things come north a bit. haven't been too many system that I can recall since OCT that have been suppressed, but that can always change on a dime I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 haven't been too many system that I can recall since OCT that have been suppressed, but that can always change on a dime I suppose I take it back...Para does something on the 13th-14th. Almost like a Miller B solution. Pretty disorganized, but gives us some on/off light snow those days. I still think it's a legit threat window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 haven't been too many system that I can recall since OCT that have been suppressed, but that can always change on a dime I suppose Dec 19-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Dec 19-21 that's not too many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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