usedtobe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Next Monday's virtual storm looks interesting though having the vort lift a little to our north doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. However, we're dealing with a really cold air mass so it will be interesting to see how the system plays out on the other models. Still too far out to get excited much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well, we get our usual 8 to 10 days out snow event on the GFS. Next run, it'll poof. The fact that we're looking at the 192 hour GFS for some hope is tragic. Yes it is. We're reduced to rooting for clippers with the vort going to our north or 192 GFS forecasts with the vort lifting just to our north. In slow snow years we are pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yes it is. We're reduced to rooting for clippers with the vort going to our north or 192 GFS forecasts with the vort lifting just to our north. In slow snow years we are pathetic. if there's one thing i've learned, it's that being in the bullseye at day 8 isn't always ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ...definitely looks trackable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That setup is similar to PDII...unlike many of the times models like showing that setup at times the last few winters, this one has potential I think because the pattern out west does not support the S/W getting trapped or cut off and the high being able to escape, its a fluid pattern...the other times we've seen this we're relying on something ejecting, in this case if that something does exist I very much like the chances of it coming east and running into the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 500 mg of short waves in PA? 500mb sw in pa isn't good for anyone. Lmao thats what I get for texting while driving, ouch.... Meant C US lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would like to see a trend towards a front overunning hit while the airmass is still solid. If we have to rely on organization it gets dicey. So far out it's meaningless to parse but watching for a stripe running from the deep south up the tn vly in advance of the vort would be nice. And not terribly complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For the record, being in the "bullseye" at any point would be kinda nice at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For the record, being in the "bullseye" at any point would be kinda nice at this point... We haven't even seen a bullseye for a while so that is an improvement. Plus the AO and NAO are trending in the right direction at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would like to see a trend towards a front overunning hit while the airmass is still solid. If we have to rely on organization it gets dicey. So far out it's meaningless to parse but watching for a stripe running from the deep south up the tn vly in advance of the vort would be nice. And not terribly complicated. That's sort of how it's looked for the 12th time frame the last several days. This coastal solution is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 He adds a lot more to this forum than you do, so i would chill with your usual nasty comments. To be fair I was writing it at a stop light. I agree txting while driving is a big no no. However Id be lying if I said Ive never checked the EURO while driving 75 down 95. As for this potential event, the 12z GGEM has a favorable setup at 144 hours. I dont have it beyond that yet so I don't know what it does from it. I don't think there has been one suite of model runs that all showed a good fantasy snow event across the board. Meaning even if the EURO showed a day 7 snowstorm the GFS wouldn't. This makes sense obviously since we haven't had any snow. It would be nice if the EURO latches on today, I am dying for something to track. Ravensrule, as much as I appreciate it no need to stand up for me lol... I am 28 years old and have been posting on wx forums since I was 14...I think I will always be labeled a weenie because the veteran posters know me from my young days even though Ive been following wx models for 10+ years, went to met. school etc. I never get offended... I think personally I am decent at recognizing favorable setups. The setup is okay, I dont like how far north the shortwave gets on the GFS, but we have a nice airmass to work with... I hope the EURO gives us something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 To be fair I was writing it at a stop light. I agree txting while driving is a big no no. However Id be lying if I said Ive never checked the EURO while driving 75 down 95. As for this potential event, the 12z GGEM has a favorable setup at 144 hours. I dont have it beyond that yet so I don't know what it does from it. I don't think there has been one suite of model runs that all showed a good fantasy snow event across the board. Meaning even if the EURO showed a day 7 snowstorm the GFS wouldn't. This makes sense obviously since we haven't had any snow. It would be nice if the EURO latches on today, I am dying for something to track. Ravensrule, as much as I appreciate it no need to stand up for me lol... I am 28 years old and have been posting on wx forums since I was 14...I think I will always be labeled a weenie because the veteran posters know me from my young days even though Ive been following wx models for 10+ years, went to met. school etc. I never get offended... I think personally I am decent at recognizing favorable setups. The setup is okay, I dont like how far north the shortwave gets on the GFS, but we have a nice airmass to work with... I hope the EURO gives us something Some people bash you here and it is unwarranted. You add a lot to this forum and i love reading your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Some people bash you here and it is unwarranted. You add a lot to this forum and i love reading your posts. Agree, I feel the same way on his contributions. As for the medium range, definitely a trackable event for once next week. Beyond that in the longer range toward the end of its run, the 12Z GFS looks pretty awful. Cold air gets flushed from Canada, ridging out west breaks down, and low heights recede toward the Polar region if you take it at face value. But the 12Z ensemble mean has a lot different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 day 7 of the Euro looks like it has something that might give us something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 day 7 of the Euro looks like it has something that might give us something It's a strung out messy event. Some light overrunning snow to start. Then some light ice. Then some rain. Totally different than last night's solution. At least it has precip making it here this time. We won't know much for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's a strung out messy event. Some light overrunning snow to start. Then some light ice. Then some rain. Totally different than last night's solution. At least it has precip making it here this time. We won't know much for a while. thanks.....at least it's sumpin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro keeps things quite chilly through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro keeps things quite chilly through the end of the run. yep, and 2 days ago the 11-15 day ensembles had us torching at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will put this up in here again, as I think most of the areas have some nice potential next weekend. Hot off the presses folks! LOL All new weather video is up. I really think y'all will like it. There is a BUNCH of weather talk, duh...but we talk about the Arctic airmass coming down and how I feel like the models will likely be a little to warm with it, Especially the EURO. Also, how I think the models will ***MORE THAN LIKELY** be kicking out the airmass toward the weekend. PLUS we talk about the *POTENTIAL* weekend fun.. again, potential and TRENDS not a forecast. The players are on the field, but do we kick a field goal, fumble or hit the end zone?? Enjoy and thank y'all for liking and sharing the videos and page. Really means a lot to me. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For the sake of the sanity of this board, we need this weekend to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For the sake of the sanity of this board, we need this weekend to work. Things look to remain active after the weekend too. That's the good news. The bad news is the gefs and euro ens are both showing a warmup down the line and it includes almost all of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Things look to remain active after the weekend too. That's the good news. The bad news is the gefs and euro ens are both showing a warmup down the line and it includes almost all of Canada. I figure Millwx is wishing he went with one of those torches that were showing up in his winter analog set instead of the cold one(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Things look to remain active after the weekend too. That's the good news. The bad news is the gefs and euro ens are both showing a warmup down the line and it includes almost all of Canada. Honestly, probably we have to really on the weeniesm that has some truth to it...models are underdoing or rushing the cold air departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I really can't remember a winter that has been this horrendous at this point and "reasonable" foreseeable future for the entire east coast, save Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Honestly, probably we have to really on the weeniesm that has some truth to it...models are underdoing or rushing the cold air departure. I'm not even worried about it Tbh. We have a completely uncooperative ao/nao. We should expect oscillating cool/warm periods. I doubt this weekend is our only chance for a moderate event before things shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Things look to remain active after the weekend too. That's the good news. The bad news is the gefs and euro ens are both showing a warmup down the line and it includes almost all of Canada. Blah blah ..... Showed the same thing in decber for Canada and it was not near as bad as what showed on the ensembles. All the ensembles have been garbage over the last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm not even worried about it Tbh. We have a completely uncooperative ao/nao. We should expect oscillating cool/warm periods. I doubt this weekend is our only chance for a moderate event before things shift. I do too. I still think we have time to turn this winter around. In fact, we have a good shot to at least "break even" still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Blah blah ..... Showed the same thing in decber for Canada and it was not near as bad as what showed on the ensembles. All the ensembles have been garbage over the last few weeks I didn't get any snow in Dec and never really had a chance. The month sucked. One thing all guidance has consistently nailed is a +ao/nao. That hasn't changed and until it does I'm not expecting anything great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I really can't remember a winter that has been this horrendous at this point and "reasonable" foreseeable future for the entire east coast, save Maine This winter reminds me of the period from 1972 to 1975 in New England. It would get cold, but most of the storms went up the Ohio River Valley. I remember a lot of storms starting cold and ending up warm. There must have been exceptions, but I don't have the data or the knowledge to interpret it. I'm just an observer but wonder if there are some clues for us from those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z GFS continues our streak of never have two good runs in a row of anything decent. That's a stout H though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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