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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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if we don't get snow, it won't matter to many what model busts or not

Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok".

I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness.

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idk how strong I feel about that right now

I could see it going both ways at this point

but since being realistic or pessimistic will only put me in a bad mood, I'll remain blissfully optimistic

I wouldn't go too crazy realistically but I have a hard time seeing how we will get really cold and have nothing to show for it.
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Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok".

I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness.

I'm with you on both counts

we really need some blocking to show up or we really are fooked long term

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Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok".

I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness.

Para looks quite nice for the 12th.  Think we got a chance. 

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Just passing this along, since IMO there will be some kind of threats in the CAD areas for sure at some point.  Hot off the presses!!  LOL  All new weather video is up online.  Warning, its a longer video today, but there is a TON to talk about and a TON of potential with the pattern.  I still feel that the models will trend maybe a little colder with the arctic airmass, but we shall see.  This will be the REAL deal cold for sure.  Next weekend looks **Potentially** interesting...Not sure anything will happen, *more than likely won't*, but IMHO its very possible.  Thanks for watching!

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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18Z GFS has actual snow for DCA/BWI next weekend, only about an inch to 2 at the most, but it's real virtual snow I tell you....I even checked soundings!

of course, the Para GFS had it at 12Z but lost it com0pletely on its 18Z run lol

I think hr 186 and 192 had a little something for the bottom half of the region.
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0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely!

the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho

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0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely!

the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho

The Para still shows some light snow for next weekend.

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0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely!

the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho

Yep - The Highs are strong and they are bringing some bigger shots of cold with them now that we are in January, but as long as they keep sliding off the coast, any chance to thread the needle is slim to none.  Wash rinse repeat, as we do with most winters. 

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