Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If the next 2 weeks feature bn temps and multiple arctic shots then the euro ens are going to bust horribly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If the next 2 weeks feature bn temps and multiple arctic shots then the euro ens are going to bust horribly if we don't get snow, it won't matter to many what model busts or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 if we don't get snow, it won't matter to many what model busts or not Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok". I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 idk how strong I feel about that right now I could see it going both ways at this point but since being realistic or pessimistic will only put me in a bad mood, I'll remain blissfully optimistic I wouldn't go too crazy realistically but I have a hard time seeing how we will get really cold and have nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok". I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness. I'm with you on both counts we really need some blocking to show up or we really are fooked long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I wouldn't go too crazy realistically but I have a hard time seeing how we will get really cold and have nothing to show for it. that's because you're young and "relatively" new to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Canadian was south with the clipper compared to the 12z GFS. Verbatim it would be .25" of snow, but at least it didn't go north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 thru 72 hrs, almost looks like Euro will be a bit south with the clipper vs. 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I don't think the clipper is med/long range anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Best look since the phantom look in mid-Dec for around now. Our HECS off the CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I don't think the clipper is med/long range anymore. Yeah, my bad. Can mods move this to the Obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Outside of a dry little ns vort sneaking in, not much going on most of next week from how it looks now. Next weekend is definitely a period of interest. No blocking makes it shakey but definitely the best antecedent airmass of the year by a wide margin in place for a time. Would likely be a messy and/or icey type of deal if things work out "ok". I'm becoming more interested in the +ao/nao starting to show some weakness. Para looks quite nice for the 12th. Think we got a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Best look since the phantom look in mid-Dec for around now. Our HECS off the CA coast. Damn that's hawt. That is a KU pattern. Too bad it probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Damn that's hawt. That is a KU pattern. Too bad it probably won't happen.Yeah I'd take it. Dryish thru then but fun may come shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Para looks quite nice for the 12th. Think we got a chance. Really both the gfs and the para show a little something. Maybe it will show it again and we can break the monotony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 euro is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 euro is a disaster Good seeing as how it keeps caving to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just passing this along, since IMO there will be some kind of threats in the CAD areas for sure at some point. Hot off the presses!! LOL All new weather video is up online. Warning, its a longer video today, but there is a TON to talk about and a TON of potential with the pattern. I still feel that the models will trend maybe a little colder with the arctic airmass, but we shall see. This will be the REAL deal cold for sure. Next weekend looks **Potentially** interesting...Not sure anything will happen, *more than likely won't*, but IMHO its very possible. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18Z GFS has actual snow for DCA/BWI next weekend, only about an inch to 2 at the most, but it's real virtual snow I tell you....I even checked soundings! of course, the Para GFS had it at 12Z but lost it com0pletely on its 18Z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18Z GFS has actual snow for DCA/BWI next weekend, only about an inch to 2 at the most, but it's real virtual snow I tell you....I even checked soundings! of course, the Para GFS had it at 12Z but lost it com0pletely on its 18Z run lol I think hr 186 and 192 had a little something for the bottom half of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 While not a great setup by any standard, the Day 7-8 event on the GFS is probably the best legit shot we've had all season. There's a reinforcing cold shot day on Friday that builds a nice HP behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely! the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely! the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho The Para still shows some light snow for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0Z GFS takes the weekend "event" away....completely! the changes in the long wave pattern that we need for us to get something are monumental and the fail of every event (yes, I know nothing has failed yet, but we can't even get threats to hang in there.....and they're not even close!) speaks volumes about what lies ahead imho Yep - The Highs are strong and they are bringing some bigger shots of cold with them now that we are in January, but as long as they keep sliding off the coast, any chance to thread the needle is slim to none. Wash rinse repeat, as we do with most winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 zero steps forward...15 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Grasping for straws in this pattern. but tonights 00z GGEM at Day 9 and Day 10 gives us a winter storm, but its mostly ice fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z GFS looks interesting at 162 hours, we have decent confluence and a nice 500mg shortwave forming in C PA 500mgs of shortwaves lol Huff I was texting while driving lol, i meant Central US haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z GFS looks interesting at 162 hours, we have decent confluence and a nice 500mg shortwave forming in C PA 500mgs of shortwaves lol 500 mg of short waves in PA? 500mb sw in pa isn't good for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS looks really close to being a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well, we get our usual 8 to 10 days out snow event on the GFS. Next run, it'll poof. The fact that we're looking at the 192 hour GFS for some hope is tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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