yoda Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS is trolling us at 216-240... 1047 H gets shoved away so we go ice to rain... typical MA winter weather At least weenie range tries 300-312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 not yet. January 14 is the current target date. I thought the para was the new GFS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Weenie range on the GFS.... but looks like a decent ridge forming out west and trough in the East... GFS brings the freezer to us as run ends with -15c to -20c 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 UKMET-GGEM are also south now. Looks like Guidance is aligning. CMC is snow for northern VA-SO PA. NAM is way north so you know this was going to happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1" of daytime snow would be pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1" of daytime snow would be pretty huge. 40:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Well the Euro went further south with the clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yes the Euro did go south and gives BWI an inch of snow (assuming a 50 to 1 ratio), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS and Para have advertised this look 2 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Clipper track appears to be trending more south this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS and Para have advertised this look 2 runs in a row. The 6z Atari's evolution from 300-360 is bizarre, but basically it digs that s/w for oil and turns it into an Archambault event it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The 6z Atari's evolution from 300-360 is bizarre, but basically it digs that s/w for oil and turns it into an Archambault event it looks like. Heck, I thought the GFS looked somewhat weird. Takes the northern stream and digs a closed low south of us. The 06Z GEFS has a cold look during that same period with a pattern that doesn't look too bad for snow but offhand I didn't see any snowstorm analogs that jumped out at me but didn't search either so there could have been a modest event or two that I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Clipper track appears to be trending more south this morning. Looks a little north, if anything, on the 6z runs. Realistically its probably not going to come south enough. Still should be some snow showers around with the second(real) shot of arctic air following the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 well that was fun. GFS back north, complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 well that was fun. GFS back north, complete whiff.no blocking, no snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The clipper never really stood a chance. Crappy h5 look and track since it first showed up. Shouldnt be disappointing. It may track close enough for snow showers but no models had it pass under us. That's the only way it could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 well that was fun. GFS back north, complete whiff. Para still manages to get .5" of snow north of Baltimore, but overall it doesn't look too good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 well that was fun. GFS back north, complete whiff. nothing ever trends in our favor. Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Winter cancelers are going to look dumb in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Winter cancelers are going to look dumb in a while. Still on for your twenty inch storm? No sarcasm, genuinely want to know if you still have that confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Still on for your twenty inch storm? No sarcasm, genuinely want to know if you still have that confidence. That was always kind of hopeful but this isn't shaping up as a multiple HECS winter for sure... We might still have a shot at a big one at some point but I'd take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs has ice and para has snow next weekend. I'll blend and take both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs has ice and para has snow next weekend. I'll blend and take both. I really have not looked at the para much this season, except for what has been posted in the forum. Is it better or worse than the GFS overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I really have not looked at the para much this season, except for what has been posted in the forum. Is it better or worse than the GFS overall? It's definitely no Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I really have not looked at the para much this season, except for what has been posted in the forum. Is it better or worse than the GFS overall? V scores show it superior to gfs d1-4. Inferior 6-10. And superior beyond that from what I read. If someone know more, please chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It's definitely no Euro. V scores show it superior to gfs d1-4. Inferior 6-10. And superior beyond that from what I read. If someone know more, please chime in. thanks....I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 thanks....I guess It's also running warm with bl temps. Read that somewhere. Interestingly, the para shows the ao/nao going neg again late in the run. 3 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It's also running warm with bl temps. Read that somewhere. Interestingly, the para shows the ao/nao going neg again late in the run. 3 in a row. GFS sorta lost that but is showing hints of an east -NAO developing at the end of the run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Winter cancelers are going to look dumb in a while. idk how strong I feel about that right now I could see it going both ways at this point but since being realistic or pessimistic will only put me in a bad mood, I'll remain blissfully optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS sorta lost that but is showing hints of an east -NAO developing at the end of the run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model oh yeah, and it kills the SE ridge this run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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