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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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The 6z Atari's evolution from 300-360 is bizarre, but basically it digs that s/w for oil and turns it into an Archambault event it looks like. 

Heck, I thought the GFS looked somewhat weird.  Takes the northern stream and digs a closed low south of us.   The 06Z GEFS has a cold look during that same period with a pattern that doesn't look too bad for snow but offhand I didn't see any snowstorm analogs that jumped out at me but didn't search either so there could have been a modest event or two that I don't remember. 

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Clipper track appears to be trending more south this morning.

Looks a little north, if anything, on the 6z runs. Realistically its probably not going to come south enough. Still should be some snow showers around with the second(real) shot of arctic air following the clipper.

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Still on for your twenty inch storm? No sarcasm, genuinely want to know if you still have that confidence. 

That was always kind of hopeful but this isn't shaping up as a multiple HECS winter for sure... ;)

 

We might still have a shot at a big one at some point but I'd take the under.

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I really have not looked at the para much this season, except for what has been posted in the forum. Is it better or worse than the GFS overall?

V scores show it superior to gfs d1-4. Inferior 6-10. And superior beyond that from what I read. If someone know more, please chime in.

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It's also running warm with bl temps. Read that somewhere.

Interestingly, the para shows the ao/nao going neg again late in the run. 3 in a row.

GFS sorta lost that but is showing hints of an east -NAO developing at the end of the run

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model

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