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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Obviously, the sun drives everything :P but how does solar activity impact winter?

I'm not very knowledgeable in this area, but I've learned that during times of weaker geomagnetic activity (solar minimums), the polar vortex is weaker and the westerly winds in the stratosphere weaken and it can allow stratospheric warming events to occur more frequently and easily. But ENSO also plays a role and you can still get good blocking during solar maximum.

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Looks like this storm next weekend is real. GFS somehow still screws us even after having a 1011mb low on the TX/NM border and a 1040mb high at the ND/Canada border at hr 180. Maybe a light mix though verbatim. Para manages to drive a really weak low between 2 1030+ mb highs.

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could be a season saver if this verifies

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_49.png

 

Someone more knowledgeable please chime in.  This is a pretty nice look.  I don't see split flow (wouldn't you see lower heights off Baha?).  I do see blocking - but a east-based -nao, a positive PNA, but it looks like the trough is a little east of ideal.  Lower heights in the GOM suggest a tap of gulf moisture.  And I see a 384 hr forecast map, which means it's as likely as Santa Claus delivering Christmas presents to the ACLU headquarters with unicorns pulling his sleigh.

 

Appreciate feedback so I can further my knowledge base.  Thank you.

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Its a weakling....the vort max really craps out as it approaches. Still time and room for improvement. Could easily produce a coating in some places verbatim.

Surface maps on tonight's run holds the precip together pretty good. Text numbers give BWI .15 with surface temps in the mid to upper 20's with very cold 850's. Para not as wet and farther north.

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