WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If things shake out as they look now, the first 10-14 days of January will be below normal temp-wise. Maybe a general -2 - -3F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thursday is going to be COLD. 12z Euro shows highs around 20F for the cities, with teens in the NW 'burbs. Lows Thursday morning may dip below 10F right up to I-95. 12z GFS shows this, with lows 8-10F for the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Obviously, the sun drives everything but how does solar activity impact winter? I'm not very knowledgeable in this area, but I've learned that during times of weaker geomagnetic activity (solar minimums), the polar vortex is weaker and the westerly winds in the stratosphere weaken and it can allow stratospheric warming events to occur more frequently and easily. But ENSO also plays a role and you can still get good blocking during solar maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The whole M-F time frame looks cold, but Thursday looks awesome. Snow is obviously #1 for most, but big cold is a close second to me. I agree. There may not be snow on the ground, but an ice-covered inlet is almost as good. Friday should have great ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 The Gfs brothers brought the clipper a little closer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like this storm next weekend is real. GFS somehow still screws us even after having a 1011mb low on the TX/NM border and a 1040mb high at the ND/Canada border at hr 180. Maybe a light mix though verbatim. Para manages to drive a really weak low between 2 1030+ mb highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I agree. There may not be snow on the ground, but an ice-covered inlet is almost as good. Friday should have great ice. Great, now we're relegated to wishing for ice. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I guess it's a start with changing the Pole region....just a darn shame it takes 384 hours lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150102+18+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I guess it's a start with changing the Pole region....just a darn shame it takes 384 hours lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150102+18+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model could be a season saver if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 could be a season saver if this verifies I like the blue in the gomex better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 could be a season saver if this verifies Someone more knowledgeable please chime in. This is a pretty nice look. I don't see split flow (wouldn't you see lower heights off Baha?). I do see blocking - but a east-based -nao, a positive PNA, but it looks like the trough is a little east of ideal. Lower heights in the GOM suggest a tap of gulf moisture. And I see a 384 hr forecast map, which means it's as likely as Santa Claus delivering Christmas presents to the ACLU headquarters with unicorns pulling his sleigh. Appreciate feedback so I can further my knowledge base. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This will be fun... -12F IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Can't see the pic, but I am real pumped for the coming chill. Sorry, I forgot it's WxBell. It shows negative wind chills across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sorry, I forgot it's WxBell. It shows negative wind chills across the area Would be nice to get a coating of snow with this cold outbreak. Too bad that clipper cant dig a bit further south. Sucky pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Clipper love coming..looks like it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Clipper love coming..looks like it so far. Noticeable shift south on the regular GFS...that's snow. Surface is decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Noticeable shift south on the regular GFS...that's snow. Surface is decent too Yes sir....it has shifted south two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm getting excited over a clipper. God help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Oh it is a bit south now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yes sir....it has shifted south two runs in a row. Let's see what the para says in a few. Regular GFS looks like about an inch of snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Needs to come a bit further south...getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Needs to come a bit further south...getting there. Interesting developments... I made a post earlier about how if we were to put down a few inches, the temps would be through the floor. Based on clown maps, it looks like 3" N. of Baltimore City, with 1-2" Baltimore to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Be nice to have a mini flizzard on the leading edge of our cold snap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS looks hot. Don't start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Para gives us some love too. I'll start a thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Para gives us some love too. I'll start a thread..... I thought the para was the new GFS now? Anyway... looks good for some... precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Its a weakling....the vort max really craps out as it approaches. Still time and room for improvement. Could easily produce a coating in some places verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I thought the para was the new GFS now? Anyway... looks good for some... precip I'm looking at the Amwx model page...still list as gfs and gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS continues to bring in 1040+ H pressures into the Central Plains in its mid-range... so at least we will have some cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Its a weakling....the vort max really craps out as it approaches. Still time and room for improvement. Could easily produce a coating in some places verbatim. Surface maps on tonight's run holds the precip together pretty good. Text numbers give BWI .15 with surface temps in the mid to upper 20's with very cold 850's. Para not as wet and farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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