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January Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Sorta. We did also get dec 5 and the clipper early mo. Most of Jan 'sucked' yeah and anyone would take that stretch and nothing else... But I still say it's a little concerning that almost no one has seen any snow in Dec around here.

And really not just here. MN posted a pitiful snow map of the country the other day.

The good news is that right now I don't think we can trust much of anything past 3-4 days. We are seeing flip-flops even in ensembles. It may look bleak now, but perhaps reality will be different.

BTW, are there any good MJO phases? 8 and 1? Seems as if they are all bad.

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CAPE

CAPE

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My gut says we're ok. Climo is still pretty bad. If we do get a blocky period I'm sure glad we didn't waste it on December. Weaker ninos tend to be backloaded anyway. At this point if you gave me an over/under of 10" at DCA and 15" at IAD I'd bet the over in 2 seconds. Those aren't exactly compelling numbers but doesn't mean I think we are just limited to exceeding them slightly. We really aren't wasting productive windows until January 15th. Our collective concern is certainly understandable but it isn't really rational. What very well could happen is we get a decent percentage between 2/15 and 3/10 and I know not everyone is a fan of snow late season. Off the top of my head this is where I stood on January 15th and my final total.

2004-05: T/17"

2006-07: T/14"

2008-09: T/10"

2013-14: 4"/37"

Good post. Not sure why so many had such high expectations for December, to the point where they are ready to cancel winter already. Most outlooks I saw( that were not total weenie jobs), had Dec mild-ish and turning somewhat colder end of month, with most of the cold back loaded- late Jan through mid March. Getting snow the first third of winter is cool, low sun angle and all, but realistically its doesn't happen a lot around these parts. I had an inch of snow total last December, but then the early Jan storm got things kicked off with 7+ inches here. Could still get lucky and time something in the next 10 days, or might have to wait till the second half of Jan. Tough getting a read on how the pattern will progress with how the models are performing at longer leads.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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We're far from out of the game for some storms and maybe a memorable one (or even 2...greed is fun). The weird thing so far is so much looked at least decent this fall (enso, pdo, sci/sce, opi) that it brought on collective thoughts of a big one. I was always skeptical of that but it's pretty odd to see almost everyone east of the MS kinda sucking it so far and basically scrambling for something. Anything. I know we suck more often then not but a lot of areas that don't suck are sucking pretty bad.[/quote

Fortunately I don't care at all about other areas. I went 0 to -1 in December which is the same as a +3 to +4 in January. And we don't get too many good snows in a +3 January and our climo is much better. I will bust cold this month but I didn't expect anything in the long term. I figured December would probably suck as it usually does. In the medium range I called for a storm end of December but that didn't have much skill, but will bust nonetheless. I've been around too long to panic.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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the pattern may be "Nina-esque", but the sensible wx reminds me (so far) of 97/98 how nobody in the east (up and down the coast save Maine) has snow of real consequence

obviously, the reason that year was the super NINO, but the sensible weather seems the same to me.....warmish and wet

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87storms

87storms

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Euro ens backed off a good bit on snow chances for the next 10 days. I feel the same way Yeoman does to some extent. It has the feel of things not syncing up this year. It can change of course but if that's weeks in the future then big snow calls are going to have an uphill battle.

Still a pattern that can produce so this run of the ens isn't very meaningful. Just not something I wanted to see. GEFS was no better.

Still think it's tough to call until we get to mid January. We can still score in February. What makes Jan nice is that we don't need as much to go right. Cold air has always been more difficult to get than qpf. We do fine with qpf most of the time but we fringe the heck out of temps most of the time as well. Real winter here is typically only a month and a half or two months long and the main reason we only average 15" or so per year.
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Amped

Amped

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Was reading DTs blog post...talks about MJO phase 4,5,6 coming up meaning warm from mid-late Jan...maybe phase 7 in Feb...we have to prepared for the fact we may punt nearly two months. Wow.

 

The MJO moves faster than that. It'll hit 7 somewhere between January 10th and the 15th unless it really stalls.

 

Edit: He actually said phase 7 by late January and phase 8 in February.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Sorta. We did also get dec 5 and the clipper early mo. Most of Jan 'sucked' yeah and anyone would take that stretch and nothing else... But I still say it's a little concerning that almost no one has seen any snow in Dec around here.

You're right, that winter was going much better no way around it. But some of that may have been luck. The dec 5 storm was a little similar to the thanksgiving storm this year in terms if being elevation dependent. The big storm happened but overall the pattern wasn't great until later in the year. We did have a threat last weekend and turned out cold enough only the kicker out west flattened the trough so no storm. Better luck this year and worse 5 years ago and things could be similar right now. I am just as frustrated with the pattern so far as everyone else but I'm not ready to start panicking for the whole season yet. If I had to bet I would still say we finish above avg snowfall I just think it's mostly after feb1.
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Plus we had a great pattern show itself in Dec and all we do is pray for d10 to show that now.

Everyone in the east is collectively chasing a way out of the craptastic Dec pattern. There's no way to sugar coat or forward look until we (or somebody) gets out. 09 had a great Dec -ao. There's alot of data to back up the fact that a -ao Dec is a harbinger of a good winter (with a few exceptions of course). Swing and a miss this year.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Have the euro weeklies really been doing well enough to worry at all about this or are we all just funning around?

Weeklies do well when the 0z ensemble run that they extend does well. If the se ridge/trough west look verifies then there is value. Weeklies can be good when a pattern is stable and terrible when it isn't. The jury is always out. It's up to brains to decide and not computers if we should believe.

-epo's are stable more often then not. Week 3 knocks it down. I'm not sold. But that doesn't mean the se ridge won't cause it's own problems. Would like to see ops and ens push that idea east asap.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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Not much to like about today's runs as the NAO goes strongly positive in the 6-10 means of both the operational Euro and GFS and both keep the ridging in the Pacific too far west. The Alaskan ridge will help cold air build across canada but it will plunge way west and until the ridge shifts east any strong storm is likely to go to our west.  The pattern looks more nina-ish than nino-ish right now.

 

-EPO and -PNA will equal cold from the center of the country to points west.  For this sub forum I hope if the EPO relaxes a PNA ridge will set up further east, if it doesn't.....lets not go there, as my warm winter forecast for the inter mountain west will be a complete buzz kill.

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CAPE

CAPE

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I would have expected more chatter around here. I wanna believe there are chances coming up.

NYE flurries! I am somewhat encouraged in the long term as it appears the AO goes neutral and trends negative beyond next week.(grain of salt, as this is per ens guidance) Good to see higher heights showing up at the pole, with the persistent low up over the Barents sea dissipating 

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