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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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a -epo is all we've got to give us cold now

if we lose that and continue with the +AO and NAO, we'll all be in shorts

I suppose a +PNA would help but not with the other 3 all going +

 

I guess a positive EPO gives us the troughing/pacific jet stream, so that makes sense. This is going be a tough few weeks.

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if the problem has been the sun's activity in DEC, there may be a "ray of hope" there ;)

if you go to the bottom page of this link "Monthly Solar Cycle Date", it shows that the predicted Average Solar Flux is to drop off fairly markedly in JAN from DEC's number.....the caveat being that it's a prediction

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

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Gotta love how the -EPO could slip away while the +NAO and +AO refuse to budge

We should probably wait until it actually slips away before worrying. Numerical index guidance doesn't really tell the whole picture. Ensembles and ops don't show a pac jet pattern that is typical with a +epo anyways. PNA is looking to turn friendly as well. Volatile times ahead. I don't see any reason to worry (other than the obvious lack of blocking).

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Para disagrees.  Both clippers come close next week and the 11-13th period is definitely one to watch with an overrunning scenario possible and a cold airmass in place before.  

It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south.

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It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south.

with a +nao and ao, the lack of blocking probably assures that the northern track holds as we get closer imho
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It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south.

Such a unanimous agreement that our area will get screwed by the clipper.  Down-sloping FTL.

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Robust GEFS support for some sort of storm around the 12th.  Mostly overrunning, but 1-2 cutters and coastal thrown in for good measure.  Whatever sort of storm occurs, it will have the coldest antecedent airmass to work with yet this winter.  

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Para disagrees.  Both clippers come close next week and the 11-13th period is definitely one to watch with an overrunning scenario possible and a cold airmass in place before.  

 

But the 500h looks pretty pathetic durig the 11-13 period.  I'd sure bet against it but then I may be like all the pundits yesterday picking the Southeast conference teams.

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Robust GEFS support for some sort of storm around the 12th. Mostly overrunning, but 1-2 cutters and coastal thrown in for good measure. Whatever sort of storm occurs, it will have the coldest antecedent airmass to work with yet this winter.

If we can't get some blocking going, the 12z gefs run as a whole is a pretty decent option. It's really favoring ridging out west now. We can get something going with that look even if it's messy. We're in prime climo temp zone now as well.

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Yeah I don't know what JB's reasoning for that was...if anything I think the next few winters are likely to be colder and snowier than normal in the East as a whole.

I'm generally with you on that, but wonder if it'll get started in a couple years as we get closer to solar minimum. Also, there's several solar experts who are claiming that the next minimum could be the start of a grand minimum and a much weaker solar cycle than the current (cycle 24) cycle. Interesting times ahead for sure.

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