AlaskaETC Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 a -epo is all we've got to give us cold now if we lose that and continue with the +AO and NAO, we'll all be in shorts I suppose a +PNA would help but not with the other 3 all going + I guess a positive EPO gives us the troughing/pacific jet stream, so that makes sense. This is going be a tough few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I guess a positive EPO gives us the troughing/pacific jet stream, so that makes sense. This is going be a tough few weeks. here's a link to the indices http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I guess a positive EPO gives us the troughing/pacific jet stream, so that makes sense. This is going be a tough few weeks. Thankfully no guidance (op or ens) shows the epo going + for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thankfully no guidance (op or ens) shows the epo going + for the next 2 weeks. well, the one link I posted does, but not that convincingly imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 here's a link to the indices http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/index.html Thanks...I get these confused a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gotta love how the -EPO could slip away while the +NAO and +AO refuse to budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 if the problem has been the sun's activity in DEC, there may be a "ray of hope" there if you go to the bottom page of this link "Monthly Solar Cycle Date", it shows that the predicted Average Solar Flux is to drop off fairly markedly in JAN from DEC's number.....the caveat being that it's a prediction http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Zero modeled snow on 12z gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Except maybe tomorrow morning for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Jb was saying this woukd be a very harsh winter while next year would be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Jb was saying this woukd be a very harsh winter while next year would be warm Next year will be a HECS pattern then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Except maybe tomorrow morning for me lol Para disagrees. Both clippers come close next week and the 11-13th period is definitely one to watch with an overrunning scenario possible and a cold airmass in place before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gotta love how the -EPO could slip away while the +NAO and +AO refuse to budge We should probably wait until it actually slips away before worrying. Numerical index guidance doesn't really tell the whole picture. Ensembles and ops don't show a pac jet pattern that is typical with a +epo anyways. PNA is looking to turn friendly as well. Volatile times ahead. I don't see any reason to worry (other than the obvious lack of blocking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Jb was saying this woukd be a very harsh winter while next year would be warm He said 3 out of the next 5 would warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Para disagrees. Both clippers come close next week and the 11-13th period is definitely one to watch with an overrunning scenario possible and a cold airmass in place before. It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south.with a +nao and ao, the lack of blocking probably assures that the northern track holds as we get closer imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's amazing how consistent both the GFS, Para and Euro have been on the track of the clipper this far out. They all seemed locked in. At least there still is 4 days left to get it to come south. Such a unanimous agreement that our area will get screwed by the clipper. Down-sloping FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Robust GEFS support for some sort of storm around the 12th. Mostly overrunning, but 1-2 cutters and coastal thrown in for good measure. Whatever sort of storm occurs, it will have the coldest antecedent airmass to work with yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Once we get some cold it will snow. Weeeeeeenies. i have a feeling it's coming soon. we may not have a monster to track, but we can get events that trend towards us and not away from us. cold air is harder to get locked in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Para disagrees. Both clippers come close next week and the 11-13th period is definitely one to watch with an overrunning scenario possible and a cold airmass in place before. But the 500h looks pretty pathetic durig the 11-13 period. I'd sure bet against it but then I may be like all the pundits yesterday picking the Southeast conference teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Robust GEFS support for some sort of storm around the 12th. Mostly overrunning, but 1-2 cutters and coastal thrown in for good measure. Whatever sort of storm occurs, it will have the coldest antecedent airmass to work with yet this winter. If we can't get some blocking going, the 12z gefs run as a whole is a pretty decent option. It's really favoring ridging out west now. We can get something going with that look even if it's messy. We're in prime climo temp zone now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's a shame that clipper won't come south a bit. If it put down 2-4" with the upcoming cold, wow, definitely some negative temp readings in the NW 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Clippers seem like fools gold around here, but since that's all there is, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Clippers seem like fools gold around here, but since that's all there is, I'm in. In for what? There is no clipper for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like snow to Ice to rain next weekend per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Most of precip is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Most of precip is rain did you ever get a copyright on the word "disaster", because I'm thinking I'll be using it more often in this thread over the next 2-4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 He said 3 out of the next 5 would warm. Yeah I don't know what JB's reasoning for that was...if anything I think the next few winters are likely to be colder and snowier than normal in the East as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah I don't know what JB's reasoning for that was...if anything I think the next few winters are likely to be colder and snowier than normal in the East as a whole. I'm generally with you on that, but wonder if it'll get started in a couple years as we get closer to solar minimum. Also, there's several solar experts who are claiming that the next minimum could be the start of a grand minimum and a much weaker solar cycle than the current (cycle 24) cycle. Interesting times ahead for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Ihave no idea what the next 3 winters will be like but did notice that the Euro had some winter weather around the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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