Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's a model war Mitch. The differences late in the runs are unusually large. I suppose in between is a fair outlook. The question I asked myself today is do I believe that once next week's cold shot pulls out do we lose the -epo and flip to a crap ridge pattern with no cold fronts or western ridge for 5+ days? I'm not buying it yet. I think it's more likely we warm for a short period in advance of the next front. If the modeled epo relax and warm period on the ec starts moving back in time then the answer is easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Here's what I have. 2010/2011 - 35.5 I may be a little high on this year. 2011/2012 - 20.0 Nothing but nickle and dime events all winter and a lot of them. 2012/2013 - 28.0 9 inches fell in December during three separate events between the 24th and 29th. 10 inches in March with the two storms. I lost my records when my laptop died but I'm pretty sure I had 36, 22, 28 for those 3 years so we are in the same ballpark. Either way a year in the 20s isn't unusual but it is our lower end and not a good year for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I lost my records when my laptop died but I'm pretty sure I had 36, 22, 28 for those 3 years so we are in the same ballpark. Either way a year in the 20s isn't unusual but it is our lower end and not a good year for this area. I was guessing that your median would be in the 25-30" range if your average was 35 or so... but maybe I'm wrong... Manchester has a fascinating microclimate and I wish there was more data for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I was guessing that your median would be in the 25-30" range if your average was 35 or so... but maybe I'm wrong... Manchester has a fascinating microclimate and I wish there was more data for the area. the avg here is probably closer to 40" at least it has been for the time I've lived in the area and the old millers coop data I had for a 25 year period. Median is probably close to 30 but I'm not sure. The micro climate here is fun sometimes. Not only does the area do well in big storms but there are numerous small events a year here out of nowhere. Couple years ago a convective band of precip setup and was just cold enough on the ridge here. dumped 3" in like an hour during what was otherwise a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not liking NAO, AO or MJO forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still positive, but heading in the right direction toward the end?18z gfs op run develops a nice pattern towards the very end. It's a straw if your grasping for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still positive, but heading in the right direction toward the end? The # doesn't mean much. It's + door to door on all ops and ensembles right now. The h5 pattern sucks and is dominated by low heights where we don't want then. -epo/+pna is our game for the time being. It's not pretty but not disgusting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I h ave been away for 24 hours now, and nothing has changed. Getting a bit sad!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, I'm just grasping. I don't like the pattern but with some shot of cold maybe we can pop some short lead event to get on the board. 18z was a weenie run. At least it's not a shutout pattern. Just a hard one. Instead of drawing dead, we're drawing on an open ended straight against 2 pair. We drew dead much of December. The little clipper next week is going to have a hard time getting below us but we shouldn't ignore it yet. Beyond that some sort of precip event is likely as the cold shot retreats. Mixey to ice? Impossible to know. We'll probably ve tracking some sort of event soon. Even if it's a banged up mess it would be fun. One thing this season is severely lacking is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least it's not a shutout pattern. Just a hard one. Instead of drawing dead, we're drawing on an open ended straight against 2 pair. We drew dead much of December. The little clipper next week is going to have a hard time getting below us but we shouldn't ignore it yet. Beyond that some sort of precip event is likely as the cold shot retreats. Mixey to ice? Impossible to know. We'll probably ve tracking some sort of event soon. Even if it's a banged up mess it would be fun. One thing this season is severely lacking is fun Not sure we shouldn't pay attention to tomorrow night for some winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not sure we shouldn't pay attention to tomorrow night for some winter weather. I've been watching. Maybe a little ice or pellets before the cities mix out. You could do better. Depends how quick things move in. 0z gfs has a little glaze in the close burbs but by mid morning it would be a non event in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z gfs op run develops a nice pattern towards the very end. It's a straw if your grasping for one. In that straw is very thin indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not sure we shouldn't pay attention to tomorrow night for some winter weather. those are the types of events that can sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 I've been watching. Maybe a little ice or pellets before the cities mix out. You could do better. Depends how quick things move in. 0z gfs has a little glaze in the close burbs but by mid morning it would be a non event in these parts. I commented in the other thread, but based on what I see, I can't see how it can warm quickly. If it's modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I commented in the other thread, but based on what I see, I can't see how it can warm quickly. If it's modeled correctly. This run does imply several hours of frozen for you. If tonight's run is right your area stays at or below freezing until at least mid morning on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Gfs-para-gefs are scoffing at the euro ens d11-15 look. Couple weenie op runs in a row with some ens support. Sooner rather than later? Gfs-gefs did well last year with epo/pna stuff. Redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Anything of note from the Euro? Clipper still north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Anything of note from the Euro? New England breaks their snow drought if you thought it was bad up to now, it will only get more painful as those to our north start to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 January Climo typically works out for New England with any number of possible patterns. We need Climo + a good pattern to score here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least it's not a shutout pattern. Just a hard one. Instead of drawing dead, we're drawing on an open ended straight against 2 pair. We drew dead much of December. I don't see this pattern as being any less hostile to getting a snowstorm then the December one. In dec at least we had a good storm track. Lack if cold was a problem but it was close once and we had one threat that fell apart. We could have got lucky if that pattern continues into the heart of winter. At least there were coastals. This pattern yea cold is around but anything of significance will cut well west. I suppose if all you want is some mood flakes or front end ice, or get really lucky and score an inch from a clipper, this pattern may be ok but if you want a real snowstorm I would have taken my chances with the dec pattern. With the active southern stream and storms taking great tracks eventually we might have scored a big one. I see almost no shot of a big snow in this pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Mitch this is all you... http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GEFS looks much more Ninoish by Day 10 with the Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO combo. Looks more like last year actually. I was trying to make the map of last year's DJF 500mb anomalies but the ESRL website is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think with the trend of the AO and the NAO dropping down to near 0 bodes well for us in about 2 weeks, maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GEFS looks much more Ninoish by Day 10 with the Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO combo. Looks more like last year actually. I was trying to make the map of last year's DJF 500mb anomalies but the ESRL website is down. Still not the greatest look though, right? Looks like more Pacific Jet action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still not the greatest look though, right? Looks like more Pacific Jet action. No...not more Pac jet. The +PNA/-EPO cuts off the Pac firehose. But you can see with the troughing east of Hawaii that the southern stream is still present. The problem is the lack of blocking. With the +NAO and SE ridge, big storms will cut to the Lakes. Last year, we had a SE ridge, but it was far enough off shore that the mean trough was in a good position for storms to go to our south even with the +NAO. By hour 300, the GEFS looks even more reminiscent of that. But we really need to get some blocking going. Last year, we had the -AO at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still not the greatest look though, right? Looks like more Pacific Jet action.The PAC pattern there is good. Problem is the Atlantic still looks like crap. Low heights parked right over Greenland. Looking at the analogs most used to predict a snowy winter something sticks out. They all featured a -nao during the snowy periods. It's true we can get snow in the right setup without nao help but that has not been the mo for weak ninos. Just about all the snowstorms that happened in the analog years had nao help. I think many simply assumed since all the analog years did feature a neg nao for a time that it would happen. If it doesn't we are in trouble. Still time, I thought that was more likely later in the season but if like to start seeing signs soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Ok, here's the 500mb anomaly for last year's DJFM. You can compare to the GEFS plots I posted above and you see the Pacific is looking similar with a low south of the Aleutians and a -EPO/+PNA combo. Difference is that last year had a -AO with the PV pushed farther south as we all remember. This forced the SE ridge offshore and kept the storm track to our south in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Ok, here's the 500mb anomaly for last year's DJFM. You can compare to the GEFS plots I posted above and you see the Pacific is looking similar with a low south of the Aleutians and a -EPO/+PNA combo. Difference is that last year had a -AO with the PV pushed farther south as we all remember. This forced the SE ridge offshore and kept the storm track to our south in general. It was an unusual -ao. The -epo was so massive it connected with the scand ridge multiple times. We used the phrase ridge bridge a lot. Worked wonders keeping the pv from retreating too far and made it easy for it to keep dropping down in the fast progressive flo. We'll have to wait a bit to see how strong the upcoming -epo is and what kind of legs it has. Euro ens too a step towards the gefs last night so that was a nice (but small) trend with the ec. Gefs is starting to show the anomalous +ao may be relatively short lived but the spread is too great to think to much about it. PSU, I think we're talking about 2 different things. I know the upcoming setup all but eliminates big storms unless we have an unlikely perfect timing scenario. But Dec really sucked temp wise and our source region was just awful for the balance of the month. You are in a much much better spot for marginal early season stuff. Where I live, Dec was mostly a shutout pattern for snow but good for cold rain. Some impressive cold coming down the pipe.Us close burb and city folks usually need that first and foremost. We won't know the exact ridge/trough placement for a while and I agree that organized stuff goes west. But front end, ns vorts, and trailing stuff along boundaries are all on the table. I'll gladly take a banged up or small event to get on the board. It's been pretty disgusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I took a closer look at last nights euro ens run. I was actually a notable shift. The low heights over AK all but vanished and the +pna is more prominent. Still no blocking of course but a pattern we can live with for tracking digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I read in the Winter thread over in the general discussion section that the EPO could go positive. What effect does that have on the teleconnection? I guess tracking snow would be fun, this pattern is just boring. (third attempt at posting in this thread. ) a -epo is all we've got to give us cold now if we lose that and continue with the +AO and NAO, we'll all be in shorts I suppose a +PNA would help but not with the other 3 all going + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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