Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 PSU, I agree completely with your post. The move away from the nasty Pac jet in December took maybe 5 days longer from when the ensembles first showed it but it did occur as generally advertised. And what we are seeing now was modeled well in advance. The runs showing a possible -ao/nao were very brief and have since locked into a + regime which is verifying as we speak. I'm not sure where the models suck attitude is coming from because they have done quite well with a few exceptions since the middle of Dec. If people think they suck because d7+ threats on op runs haven't materialized then I don't know what to say there. That's not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not sure I agree that the models have been bad in the long range lately. They had a really bad stretch in mid december where they advertized a -nao regime that never came about. Since then they have been pretty good I think. overall they have nailed that we would be stuck in a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO pattern and we have been. Maybe there have been some individual runs that have shown a crazy solution but hasn't the pattern overall reflected what we would expect from that pattern. The ensembles and the indices the models have predicted have nailed things for 2 weeks now. Just because we don't like what they are showing doesnt mean we can just toss it under the false premise that they have been awful. I would not believe any specific synoptic solution in the long range, but the pattern being shown has been stable and models have been good with it. I generally agree. My point was that the pattern does seem to be pretty stable, and the guidance continues to generally show more of the same. I was being a bit tongue in cheek, as its difficult to be optimistic at this point unless you basically disregard the long range model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We can hold out hope that the models will do what they did in mid-Dec but in reverse. It wasn't just modeling arguing for a change around now though... and persistence is a giant pain in the arse. At least we are getting a mixup in the predominant weather at the surface for a while.. that's gotta be better than staying almost entirely stagnant if we want to accident into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'd be shocked still if we end up with a winter like the two before last or even something less than 5-8" at DCA. Though we did see the summers of 2010-12 in a row so I guess it's possible. I'd probably still go with about 8-12" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Which of course means a really sharp gradient so I can get my 20" storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Which of course means a really sharp gradient so I can get my 20" storm here. And my 30+" seasonal forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We can hold out hope that the models will do what they did in mid-Dec but in reverse. It wasn't just modeling arguing for a change around now though... and persistence is a giant pain in the arse. At least we are getting a mixup in the predominant weather at the surface for a while.. that's gotta be better than staying almost entirely stagnant if we want to accident into something. Since 06/07 keeps being mentioned as something to hold onto as far as a reverse we have look back and see by what time during January that winter the reverse looked certain. I think it was somewhere around the 10th-12th or so as we were in a colder regime by the 19th with light snow event that fizzled. In other words the ensembles better start looking good in about 7-10 days from right now or else it's probably over in terms of sustained solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We can hold out hope that the models will do what they did in mid-Dec but in reverse. It wasn't just modeling arguing for a change around now though... and persistence is a giant pain in the arse. At least we are getting a mixup in the predominant weather at the surface for a while.. that's gotta be better than staying almost entirely stagnant if we want to accident into something. I hold out hope we get a good pattern at some point, just punting the next 2 weeks basically. I don't need the winter to be cold and snowy end to end to be satisfied. For me its more about big storms, if we only get 3 good weeks in Feb but we can cash in with 2 significant 6"+ events I would be happy. For anyone here that would be happy with an inch or two I wouldnt give up on the clipper yet either, its far enough out in time to expect the track to shift some. It could still shift south and produce something. I just think that holding our breath that somehow this pattern will somehow break suddenly in the Jan 8-15 period is not realistic. I have plenty of hope that sometime after that things should improve. If for no other reason then the odds of this pattern lasting that long without any shake up is slim, plus as we head later into winter and the trough wavelengths shorten if cold is around we can get lucky a lot easier then in this current pattern. There is a reason we get most of our big snows in late January through February. So I hold out lots of hope that in about a week we start to see positive signs for later January. If we get to January 15 and it looks like this, then I will start to panic that this year will be a total loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 And my 30+" seasonal forecast! Well, honestly probably more like 8" at DCA but might as well have a cushion. Mega gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I hold out hope we get a good pattern at some point, just punting the next 2 weeks basically. I don't need the winter to be cold and snowy end to end to be satisfied. For me its more about big storms, if we only get 3 good weeks in Feb but we can cash in with 2 significant 6"+ events I would be happy. For anyone here that would be happy with an inch or two I wouldnt give up on the clipper yet either, its far enough out in time to expect the track to shift some. It could still shift south and produce something. I just think that holding our breath that somehow this pattern will somehow break suddenly in the Jan 8-15 period is not realistic. I have plenty of hope that sometime after that things should improve. If for no other reason then the odds of this pattern lasting that long without any shake up is slim, plus as we head later into winter and the trough wavelengths shorten if cold is around we can get lucky a lot easier then in this current pattern. There is a reason we get most of our big snows in late January through February. So I hold out lots of hope that in about a week we start to see positive signs for later January. If we get to January 15 and it looks like this, then I will start to panic that this year will be a total loss. For us, if we get shutout through the first half of January then even if we get a real nice 2-3 week period later on it will be very difficult to get near our average. Areas south of us will have a better chance. With the ways things have started off I would sign up right now for 20-24 not including what we got already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 For us, if we get shutout through the first half of January then even if we get a real nice 2-3 week period later on it will be very difficult to get near our average. Areas south of us will have a better chance. With the ways things have started off I would sign up right now for 20-24 not including what we got already. avg has very little to do with my appreciation for a winter. For instance, if we get say a 12" and 8" snowstorm back to back then a couple 1-2" clippers and a nice 3 week period of cold and snowcover in early February....thats only say 23" added to the little bit we had in November...so we would finish well below AVG but I would still remember it as a good winter IMO. just depends how it goes. I just like to have at least one big storm and a good period of snowcover and I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 if you want cold, you will be happy next week http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Highs in the teens to around 20 next Thursday.. no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Highs in the teens to around 20 next Thursday.. no thanks. ahh, you can take it.... 3 days later, it's near 50! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 if you want cold, you will be happy next week http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Highs in the teens to around 20 next Thursday.. no thanks. It's the perfect setup for our snow-less winter ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's interesting that the arctic outbreak coincides perfectly with the brief pv split @ 10-30-50mbs next week. Is the connection that direct in the troposphere or is there a lot more to it? If it can be direct like that then it could be part of the reason is snuck up on the ensembles. There wasn't a lot of lead time with the minor warming/split event. Unfortunately the strat pv quickly consolidates over the arctic by d8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 avg has very little to do with my appreciation for a winter. For instance, if we get say a 12" and 8" snowstorm back to back then a couple 1-2" clippers and a nice 3 week period of cold and snowcover in early February....thats only say 23" added to the little bit we had in November...so we would finish well below AVG but I would still remember it as a good winter IMO. just depends how it goes. I just like to have at least one big storm and a good period of snowcover and I am happy. If that scenario were to happen then you'd finish really darn close to your median. I think any of us would take a median winter and run with it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Highs in the teens to around 20 next Thursday.. no thanks. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 looking beyond the cold in the next 7-10 and the warm up thereafter, the question becomes how will the pattern look after the cold comes back the last 7-10 (if we're lucky) days of the month anyone with any ideas, stats, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This winter is both warm & wet and cold & dry basically everything but snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This winter is both warm & wet and cold & dry basically everything but snowy. You forgot cold and wet. Had enough 30s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 looking beyond the cold in the next 7-10 and the warm up thereafter, the question becomes how will the pattern look after the cold comes back the last 7-10 (if we're lucky) days of the month anyone with any ideas, stats, etc.? 200mb spag for ref http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_npac_384_200_1176_ht.gif 5,000 mile EST-- Flatline EKG 500mb (anomaly) 384hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015010112/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png Extrap the Tap from the PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 200mb spag for ref http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_npac_384_200_1176_ht.gif 5,000 mile EST 500mb Flatline EKG (anomaly) 384hrs gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015010112/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png Extrap the Tap From the PAC that's part of the warm period I referenced unfortunately I was wondering once that passes....of course, it could hold but I'm thinking not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 that's part of the warm period I referenced unfortunately I was wondering once that passes....of course, it could hold but I'm thinking not Feb Progs http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z200.20150101.201502.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150101.201502.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201502.gif SKULDUGGERY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 If that scenario were to happen then you'd finish really darn close to your median. I think any of us would take a median winter and run with it at this point.Not sure exactly what median here is but I know it's not as drastically different from avg as it is for dc. Even in 2011/12 and 2012-13 as bad as they were I managed to get well above 20" both years. I think close to 30 one of them and the other 3 years in this decade were close to 40" and 2 years above 80". So a year in the 20s is not a good winter here but again i was just referencing what makes me happy not what is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Feb Progs http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z200.20150101.201502.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150101.201502.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201502.gif SKULDUGGERY CFS2 ehh.....I'm not sure if I ever heard of that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 then... get on the curve sir http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20141230.z500.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not sure exactly what median here is but I know it's not as drastically different from avg as it is for dc. Even in 2011/12 and 2012-13 as bad as they were I managed to get well above 20" both years. I think close to 30 one of them and the other 3 years in this decade were close to 40" and 2 years above 80". So a year in the 20s is not a good winter here but again i was just referencing what makes me happy not what is normal Here's what I have. 2010/2011 - 35.5 I may be a little high on this year. 2011/2012 - 20.0 Nothing but nickle and dime events all winter and a lot of them. 2012/2013 - 28.0 9 inches fell in December during three separate events between the 24th and 29th. 10 inches in March with the two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least a pretty impressive cold outbreak next week is becoming locked. Details are obviously unknown irt to any precip chances as the airmass moves out. I'd be totally happy with a snow to sleet to ice event. Even just ice at this point. It would be a bummer to totally waste the cold. The pattern still favors a nw storm track. Maybe we can get a foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least a pretty impressive cold outbreak next week is becoming locked. Details are obviously unknown irt to any precip chances as the airmass moves out. I'd be totally happy with a snow to sleet to ice event. Even just ice at this point. It would be a bummer to totally waste the cold. The pattern still favors a nw storm track. Maybe we can get a foot of ice. GFS better be more right than the EC or we're cooked I recall the GFS was better than the EC last year in the long range so I hope it remains the better of the two....I recall the EC wanting the shut down the cold and the GFS remained adamant idk Bob, the current patterns proged by the diff models have got to be, as a whole, the worst I can remember in a long time it seems that in prior years we had fantasy storms, at least, that never worked out, but we're not even seeing them to any regular degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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