Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's not just about right now... I don't want this place to be overrun with weenies so much that actual meteorologists find it unbearable. The least we can do is respect the work they do, even if they bust. Right. Just like I respect ernie grunfeld and bruce allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Tinman has been spot on lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Gfs long range actually looks good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Gfs long range actually looks good lol It does, Deep trough in the east. High press over Greenland.. but is it reality? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It does, Deep trough in the east. High press over Greenland.. but is it reality? Who knows. Considering how things have gone so far...I'll only believe it once it's happening realtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Gfs long range actually looks good lol first hint of a -nao, of course until its supported by more then just one op run I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Mets being run off by "weenies" is horse out of the barn SO long ago that chastizing now is funny. Borderline laughable models for month of December is in fact a valid assessment. Dont know what got them screwed up this year after a very good run 2009-2013/14. Suspect it was the enhancements which have turned out to not work well. For a decade I have questioned why is there so much time and money put into the 10+ day when essentially it mostly cannot be done and who needs to know that far out anyway? I think this science is simply trying to grab at something that is too far out of it's reach. My borderline laughable comment was directed at seasonal forecasts, most of which are based on a blend of models, analogs and teleconnections. For one poster to dismiss it by saying I'm only angry because I'm not getting snow is pretty lame as most of the seasonal forecasts for last winter were lousy too. Its pretty apparent that looking at the Pacific, Atlantic, October snow cover, etc and then blending with worthless long range model forecasts of the MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc has not yielded anything remotely close to a dependable forecast. Unfortunately it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A reasonable prediction could be snow in the Mid-Atlantic in 46 days. Why? GFS shows nothing so...16 days of no snow and then small steps...snow on the GFS at 10 days that fails to materialize, same failed pattern again and then finally...snow 10 days later. No science other than persistence which has been skill this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It does, Deep trough in the east. High press over Greenland.. but is it reality? Who knows. Considering how things have gone so far...I'll only believe it once it's happening realtime. first hint of a -nao, of course until its supported by more then just one op run I am skeptical. There's been a thread tracking digital snow for a little while now. We should start a new one to track this digital -NAO, since it's such a novelty to see! In all seriousness, much better seeing these signs on the longer range GFS than what it has been advertising. Of course, as you all have said, whether it ends up being reality by then is a totally different matter. We saw similar good signs for the last week or 10 days of December for awhile too, and ended up with a shut-out. Happy 2015, everyone!! ETA: The 00Z GEFS mean doesn't really show signs of the -NAO, but 06Z kinda-sorta hints at heights trying to build over Greenland (unless that's wishful viewing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 At this point I just want to see indications of a -AO and +PNA. A -NAO has been largely elusive since 2009-10, so I am not counting on having any sustained meaningful block on the Atlantic side. If it develops, its a bonus. Need the western ridge to become a stable feature with some amplitude, and shift east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Is this MJO forecast giving us a subliminal message about long range forecasting of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Is this MJO forecast giving us a subliminal message about long range forecasting of late? Lol. Really nice to see the envelope trending towards the COD before it reaches more favorable stages for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 COD is totally acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 My borderline laughable comment was directed at seasonal forecasts, most of which are based on a blend of models, analogs and teleconnections. For one poster to dismiss it by saying I'm only angry because I'm not getting snow is pretty lame as most of the seasonal forecasts for last winter were lousy too. Its pretty apparent that looking at the Pacific, Atlantic, October snow cover, etc and then blending with worthless long range model forecasts of the MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc has not yielded anything remotely close to a dependable forecast. Unfortunately it is what it is. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Mets aren't going to be run off by weenies. Models aren't perfect. Okay now that we have established these simple truths, its NYE. Have fun. I am. Oh and the 0z runs have begun... Agreed. It's pretty much a trumped up charge leveled by one or two that got their feelings hurt. Most mets here are professionals and know criticism come with the job. That being said, we're not gonna just accept wanton and baseless trolling of them. Anyway happy NY yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 COD is totally acceptable.Bob, Not only is the COD acceptable (IF it turns out to be going there, which is up in the air), but I just found out based on research I've done over the last couple of days that at least Atlanta has been colder in at least January during COD's (i.e., amplitude under 1.0) on average than any of the eight phases with amplitude greater than 1.0! I was quite surprised to discover that being that I had never read anyone say that the COD was most favorable to cold. So, I'm now openly rooting for the COD as that seems to at least give the SE US a better shot at longer lasting and/or more intense cold. Also, all six major ZR's at ATL since 1975 were when the MJO was in the COD! I'm assuming you saw my posts in the SE forum about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I did Larry. We typically only focus on the mjo when things are bad and we are looking for a way out. 8-1-2 is good in our area for storms but it's not a magic bullet. Since the mjo forcing has been unfavorable so far, having no forcing is a net + in my book. I'm rooting for a quick death...followed up by 8-1-2. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 COD is totally acceptable. Forgive the interruption. Been an avid reader for about 12 years now and don't recognize the abbreviation "COD". I get CAD and tried to look up COD, but even NOAA's weather abbreviation page did not list it. I'm with everyone else in the hunt for some positive signs leading to some form of winter. Would welcome a quick tutorial. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Forgive the interruption. Been an avid reader for about 12 years now and don't recognize the abbreviation "COD". I get CAD and tried to look up COD, but even NOAA's weather abbreviation page did not list it. I'm with everyone else in the hunt for some positive signs leading to some form of winter. Would welcome a quick tutorial. Thanks Circle of death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is cold and dry except for a rain event lol next weekend as the arctic air moves out in time for our rain. GFS at 384 looks like its trying to end winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Circle of death? rotflmao - The doom and gloom feels something like that. Reminds me of 06/07 until we got the big sleet fest on Valentine's Day 07. Keep hoping one of the pros will latch onto a tangible sign for improvements ahead for all to gleam some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is cold and dry except for a rain event lol next weekend as the arctic air moves out in time for our rain. GFS at 384 looks like its trying to end winter though Not a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Circle of death?Yes. This is actually when the MJO amplitude is under 1.0. Circle of death sounds bad but is ironically actually the opposite at least as regards what I mentioned about better cold chances. The question I now have is whether of not we're likely to get a lengthy period in the COD this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Another day, another solution for the LR. I have to stop looking past 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is cold and dry except for a rain event lol next weekend as the arctic air moves out in time for our rain. GFS at 384 looks like its trying to end winter though How do you end something that never started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Another day, another solution for the LR. I have to stop looking past 5-6 days. Wise decision. One could say that the pattern has shown its hand for winter and will generally continue. Pessimistic view. Or you could look at the long term guidance and see that it continues to depict a crappy pattern and toss it because verification has been erratic. Optimistic view lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It can't get much worse at least. #brightside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It can't get much worse at least. #brightside I guess an all out torch would be considered worse, but I would almost welcome it if the alternative is a continuation of cold rain-warm rain-cold/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wise decision. One could say that the pattern has shown its hand for winter and will generally continue. Pessimistic view. Or you could look at the long term guidance and see that it continues to depict a crappy pattern and toss it because verification has been erratic. Optimistic view lol. Not sure I agree that the models have been bad in the long range lately. They had a really bad stretch in mid december where they advertized a -nao regime that never came about. Since then they have been pretty good I think. overall they have nailed that we would be stuck in a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO pattern and we have been. Maybe there have been some individual runs that have shown a crazy solution but hasn't the pattern overall reflected what we would expect from that pattern. The ensembles and the indices the models have predicted have nailed things for 2 weeks now. Just because we don't like what they are showing doesnt mean we can just toss it under the false premise that they have been awful. I would not believe any specific synoptic solution in the long range, but the pattern being shown has been stable and models have been good with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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