Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 First half or so of Jan hasn't been the best recently.. Typical time for cold and dry. Entering prime accident time tho. def gotta be colder than its been if we want snow heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The thing is the epo is keeping us colder for a week or so, but without that nao or ao that bob alluded to, we are in trouble IMO.I'm not sure how we can attain them moving forward at least for a while. I hear about SSW and splitting the PV....but its not translating to warming the artic and Greenland, like I know most want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 First half or so of Jan hasn't been the best recently.. Typical time for cold and dry. Entering prime accident time tho. def gotta be colder than its been if we want snow heh. I've written a outlook for the 1st half of January. I'll post it here when Jason get is up. When the pattern sucks, no one reads them. My popularity soars with a snowy pattern. Guess how many readers I'll have today. I predict on CWg I get 8 comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I've written a outlook for the 1st half of January. I'll post it here when Jason get is up. When the pattern sucks, no one reads them. My popularity soars with a snowy pattern. Guess how many readers I'll have today. I predict on CWg I get 8 comments. If you allow Ji to write your outlooks but still use your name you could become the Skip Bayless of weather. Your comments count will skyrocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If you allow Ji to write your outlooks but still use your name you could become the Skip Bayless of weather. Your comments count will skyrocket. If you look at his Facebook page, he actually knows quite a bit and doesn't hype as much as some of the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I've written a outlook for the 1st half of January. I'll post it here when Jason get is up. When the pattern sucks, no one reads them. My popularity soars with a snowy pattern. Guess how many readers I'll have today. I predict on CWg I get 8 comments.Ha. Yeah true maybe. Not the best time overall right now for eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If you look at his Facebook page, he actually knows quite a bit and doesn't hype as much as some of the pros. Then maybe Ji should write JB's outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I've written a outlook for the 1st half of January. I'll post it here when Jason get is up. When the pattern sucks, no one reads them. My popularity soars with a snowy pattern. Guess how many readers I'll have today. I predict on CWg I get 8 comments. It's easy to figure out what your outlook will be for the first half of January. We desperately need a deck shuffler, but this pattern doesn't seem to be showing any signs of breaking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's easy to figure out what your outlook will be for the first half of January. We desperately need a deck shuffler, but this pattern doesn't seem to be showing any signs of breaking down. the Euro is showing warmth in the strat occurring and it has been adamant about it assuming that happens in the next 5 days as advertised, that may be the deck reshuffling we need, but no guarantee we'll like our new hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ha. Yeah true maybe. Not the best time overall right now for eyes. I'm getting where I can almost predict who will comment on the slow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like the Euro has a big amorphous blob of a low somewhere offshore on the 7th. Does the vort pass give us any love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like the Euro has a big amorphous blob of a low somewhere offshore on the 7th. Does the vort pass give us any love? Some light snow on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 FYI—it's really childish and petty to bash long-range forecasting just because you aren't getting snow. Is it perfect? No, there is obviously still a lot to learn, but there is no need to berate it. Hey I find it entertaining to speculate about and maybe (one day) someone will unlock some sort of method that has measurable skill (beyond a couple percentage points above random chance). I just kinda wish it was presented in that context. It's for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 On or around the 15th, the 18z looks to give us some snow and then at the end of the run, it looks as if the GOM will stir something up. Best LR look in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 FYI—it's really childish and petty to bash long-range forecasting just because you aren't getting snow. Is it perfect? No, there is obviously still a lot to learn, but there is no need to berate it. LOL, how did I miss this gem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 LOL, how did I miss this gem? It's no different from saying "all models suck!!!!!" because you didn't get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's no different from saying "all models suck!!!!!" because you didn't get snow Not because one doesn't get snow...but because 5-10 forecasting is hit and miss, and 10+ day forecasting with reliable results is a myth at best. If the truth is bashing, then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not because one doesn't get snow...but because 5-10 forecasting is hit and miss, and 10+ day forecasting with reliable results is a myth at best. If the truth is bashing, then so be it. I agree with you. Who cares what an 11-15 day forecast looks like on the models at this point. Where we are now, is essentially the inversion of what was being advertised 10 or so days ago. This is what makes me optimistic about mid Jan and going forward. We could be in the midst of a pattern change for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I agree with you. Who cares what an 11-15 day forecast looks like on the models at this point. Where we are now, is essentially the inversion of what was being advertised 10 or so days ago. This is what makes me optimistic about mid Jan and going forward. We could be in the midst of a pattern change for all we know. Well said. Are all instances of pattern change easily discernible? Or are some pattern changes harder to identify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Well said. Are all instances of pattern change easily discernible? Or are some pattern changes harder to identify? I dunno. Generally I think its more difficult in a fast flow, Pacific driven pattern. Anecdotally, models seem to do better in stable patterns, like for example one that is blocky. But thats just a guess on my part. All I can tell you is the models aren't doing a great job getting it right beyond about 5 days this winter, for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Not because one doesn't get snow...but because 5-10 forecasting is hit and miss, and 10+ day forecasting with reliable results is a myth at best. If the truth is bashing, then so be it. It's one thing to say that long-range forecasting is not very reliable and is hit and miss, which is stating the obvious.... nobody thinks that weather patterns can be perfectly predicted weeks in advance. There is still a lot that needs to be learned in the field. But calling it a fraud is out of line and disrespectful to the profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 I dunno. Generally I think its more difficult in a fast flow, Pacific driven pattern. Anecdotally, models seem to do better in stable patterns, like for example one that is blocky. But thats just a guess on my part. All I can tell you is the models aren't doing a great job getting it right beyond about 5 days this winter, for whatever reason. I've always read that models really struggle with pattern changes, but I really don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I've always read that models really struggle with pattern changes, but I really don't know. Yeah I prob didnt really answer his question. I was more trying to provide a reason why the models seem to be struggling in the long range in the current pattern. But wrt to pattern changes, they seem to jump the gun(advertised too soon) when it comes to transitioning to a colder pattern, while it "seems" to generally happen quicker going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I thought I only saw one guy say that? correct, but Fozz thinks there should be more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I thought I only saw one guy say that? You're right, one person called it a fraud, and another called it "borderline laughable". It's just a couple of people, but I think making disrespectful comments can discourage actual experts from posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 You're right, one person called it a fraud, and another called it "borderline laughable". It's just a couple of people, but I think making disrespectful comments can discourage actual experts from posting here. I'd say the long range "experts" might not be posting right now for different reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'd say the long range "experts" might not be posting right now for different reasons. It's not just about right now... I don't want this place to be overrun with weenies so much that actual meteorologists find it unbearable. The least we can do is respect the work they do, even if they bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Mets aren't going to be run off by weenies. Models aren't perfect. Okay now that we have established these simple truths, its NYE. Have fun. I am. Oh and the 0z runs have begun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Mets being run off by "weenies" is horse out of the barn SO long ago that chastizing now is funny. Borderline laughable models for month of December is in fact a valid assessment. Dont know what got them screwed up this year after a very good run 2009-2013/14. Suspect it was the enhancements which have turned out to not work well. For a decade I have questioned why is there so much time and money put into the 10+ day when essentially it mostly cannot be done and who needs to know that far out anyway? I think this science is simply trying to grab at something that is too far out of it's reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Mets aren't going to be run off by weenies. Models aren't perfect. Okay now that we have established these simple truths, its NYE. Have fun. I am. Oh and the 0z runs have begun... I agree. Mets have been around here for years and they know how the game is played so there not going anywhere or else they already would've left. Every once in a while someone is run off, regular members included like what happened in the Philly forum but something like that is taking things way too far and too seriously. The majority of people here are reasonable to ignore the bad seeds. Everyone needs to be a little thick skinned from time to time and be able to take some criticism or be able to laugh at themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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