Deck Pic Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Are we really in a nino? Did that finally get established as a weak one? Or is it really a neutral? I see it repeated a lot that we can expect a good February because Nino but I know matt and others were not thrilled with where the index for that was headed as we moved through the fall. I was just going to ask the same question but didn't want to seem like an idiot. It does seem we have different opinions amongst some of the more knowledgeable mets and posters. Nino is virtually dead right now, but it could get going again..not sure....We'll almost definitely end up with a positive neutral winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I find it interesting 86/87 is being used as the example of a turn-around winter where we can still get well-above average snowfall. By this day in December 1986, we would have just begun to parse the rain/snow line for the big New Year's Day coastal storm (got down into the mid 980's mb). Prolific snow would have already fallen in interior PA, NY, and New England, and the winter was showing itself as a predominantly negative NAO one. In other words, 86/87 by now was already a fine winter for interior areas that tend to get a lot of snow before January and the coastal plain would have already been anticipating it to be our turn given how stormy the winter started overall. (IAD would end up with 5" in a couple of days.) We probably won't get blanked--- even the trying winters of 91/92 and 94/95 had a couple of decent snowstorms. I just think that we can let go of the 86/87 route (snow getting closer to the coast storm-by-storm) for getting to a historic winter. If we end up above average somehow, 86/87 will still be a bad analog for how the winter progressed. We know they all have their own character. I'm still pretty much agnostic as to whether we reach median. Assuming we are shut out until then (and that is far from a lock) All we have to do is have average snow from 1/15 on to get 90% of median. To reach our norm we'd need 140% of normal after 1/15. It isn't like we need a miracle. Big totals become much harder to reach, of course. As of now, I'm glad I didn't go for big snow this winter. But as far as reaching median, I have no stance on it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nino is virtually dead right now, but it could get going again..not sure....We'll almost definitely end up with a positive neutral winter Thanks Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We know they all have their own character. I'm still pretty much agnostic as to whether we reach median. Assuming we are shut out until then (and that is far from a lock) All we have to do is have average snow from 1/15 on to get 90% of median. To reach our norm we'd need 140% of normal after 1/15. It isn't like we need a miracle. Big totals become much harder to reach, of course. As of now, I'm glad I didn't go for big snow this winter. But as far as reaching median, I have no stance on it right now. Yup, median is so low it's doable in a 10-day span during any winter month. Average is low too but it has just been a pretty high barrier to break through for some reason in our current climate. Getting to 16" has been a coincidental challenge for DCA even during seasons that had multiple opportunities. We have this strange cluster of winters in the last 30 years from 12-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nino is virtually dead right now, but it could get going again..not sure....We'll almost definitely end up with a positive neutral winter I haven't followed the current ENSO stuff but that's kinda crazy if we don't get an official El Nino- its already been the longest period since 1950 without one (maybe even longer, I don't know if CPC has anything before then). We've never had more than 4 consecutive winters without one either. I'm sure you know all this, but it still seems kind of extreme to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I haven't followed the current ENSO stuff but that's kinda crazy if we don't get an official El Nino- its already been the longest period since 1950 without one (maybe even longer, I don't know if CPC has anything before then). We've never had more than 4 consecutive winters without one either. I'm sure you know all this, but it still seems kind of extreme to me. There has been an El Nino watch for what, 6-7 months now? I dont think its coming. Seems neutral conditions are more likely to continue. Of course recently the pattern has been behaving more like a Nina.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 But it doesn't at least in our current climo. Not sure I understand what you're saying. 39% of our winters are AN snowfall, while only 28% of winters that feature a snowless Dec reach that mark. That is a pretty significant reduction. Now those stats from Gym are from 1945 onward.... are you throwing out those pre-1980 years or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Nino forecast was the biggest bust since Kwame Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Nino forecast was the biggest bust since Kwame Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I haven't followed the current ENSO stuff but that's kinda crazy if we don't get an official El Nino- its already been the longest period since 1950 without one (maybe even longer, I don't know if CPC has anything before then). We've never had more than 4 consecutive winters without one either. I'm sure you know all this, but it still seems kind of extreme to me. 1959-1963. Also 1943-1949. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The good news then is that we are practically guaranteed a nino next year. The bad news is that with our luck, it'll probably be even stronger than 97/98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If we don't get snow or cold, then the next best thing is finding mets who cockily predicted insane cold this winter* and amusing ourselves by exposing the fraud that is long range forecasting, which I've always assumed is a way to pump and dump energy futures.... *without qualifications like "my forecast is 2% better than random chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Warm/wet.....cold/dry looks to rule the roost for the next 2-3 weeks. I'm not sure we will even see much in the way of modeled snow over that time period. Truly tough times for snow geese up and down the I-95 corridor. Here's to looking at the later part of Jan and Feb as we hit the new year. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 maybe we can get lucky with that clipper next week. If we can get it to come back south a little bit, it could phase with a coastal storm trying to develop as shown on the 6z GFS model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 1959-1963. Also 1943-1949. No. 1959 was an El Nino using the current methodology: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Again, since 1950, there hasn't been more than 4 consecutive winters without an El Nino, and if we fail to get an official one for DJF this winter it makes five. And this has already been the longest stretch of time between El Nino events. Not sure where you got 1943-1949 from, but if you have a link I'd like to see it, as I've been looking for any reliable ENSO data before 1950. The good news then is that we are practically guaranteed a nino next year. The bad news is that with our luck, it'll probably be even stronger than 97/98. Actually I would take an El Nino stronger than 97-98- that would be the strongest El Nino on record and uncharted territory so who knows what would happen. The stronger El Ninos are usually all or nothing anyway so I'd roll the dice and see what happens. Who knows- maybe that setup is a rare 1 in 1,000 years event that yields triple-digit snow totals at all three airports! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 maybe we can get lucky with that clipper next week. If we can get it to come back south a little bit, it could phase with a coastal storm trying to develop as shown on the 6z GFS model looks better on 0z GFS I thought. but yes something to at least give us a reason to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 the fraud that is long range forecasting With all due respect to the pros who are kind enough to share their thoughts on AmWx, the "science" of long range forecasting is borderline laughable. I'll take my chances on autumn squirrel activity and wooly bear caterpillars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No. 1959 was an El Nino using the current methodology: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Again, since 1950, there hasn't been more than 4 consecutive winters without an El Nino, and if we fail to get an official one for DJF this winter it makes five. And this has already been the longest stretch of time between El Nino events. Not sure where you got 1943-1949 from, but if you have a link I'd like to see it, as I've been looking for any reliable ENSO data before 1950. Actually I would take an El Nino stronger than 97-98- that would be the strongest El Nino on record and uncharted territory so who knows what would happen. The stronger El Ninos are usually all or nothing anyway so I'd roll the dice and see what happens. Who knows- maybe that setup is a rare 1 in 1,000 years event that yields triple-digit snow totals at all three airports! Very risky, an east-based or basin-wide super Nino will probably torch us. But last year ORH_wx said that if there was ever a super Nino that happens to be west-based/Modoki, then it would probably be extremely snowy in the east. Hasn't happened before so it would be uncharted territory, possibly something beyond 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Warm/wet.....cold/dry looks to rule the roost for the next 2-3 weeks. I'm not sure we will even see much in the way of modeled snow over that time period. Truly tough times for snow geese up and down the I-95 corridor. Here's to looking at the later part of Jan and Feb as we hit the new year. MDstorm wow, you can predict out to 3 weeks??? i'm messin' with you, but i do hope you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 FYI—it's really childish and petty to bash long-range forecasting just because you aren't getting snow. Is it perfect? No, there is obviously still a lot to learn, but there is no need to berate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The good news then is that we are practically guaranteed a nino next year. The bad news is that with our luck, it'll probably be even stronger than 97/98. I haven't looked in a bit but last time I did most climate models showed a neutral setup for late in the summer into the fall, there wasn't much indication of an El Niño by any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I haven't looked in a bit but last time I did most climate models showed a neutral setup for late in the summer into the fall, there wasn't much indication of an El Niño by any. In some ways, this winter smells very similar to 2001-02 (though hopefully instead, it will be back loaded, perhaps something like 2006-07). I'm not saying the pattern is necessarily similar, as I cannot honestly remember those details from back then. Nor am I suggesting we'll end up with the same fate. If I recall correctly, that was an ENSO neutral year, there were calls for colder than normal in the east, and I think even CPC was going that way in their DJF winter forecast. As December went along, it became apparent that there was almost nothing hopeful to look for day in and day out, even in the longer range. Thus far that's been the general rule this year as well. One amusing anecdote from that awful winter...I do recall reading JB's lengthy medium range discussion (when it was still free on AccuWeather). Once you sifted through his partisan rantings and football predictions, he kept on harping about how the "shots of vodka cold" and cross-Polar flow were just around the corner (10 days out)! Of course, that never came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I haven't looked in a bit but last time I did most climate models showed a neutral setup for late in the summer into the fall, there wasn't much indication of an El Niño by any. My comment was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. At this point, I don't even care about nino / nina. It doesn't seem like we'll ever get a -NAO again here, so a nino probably wouldn't help us anyway. Regarding the climate models, however: weren't they modeling a nino for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The atmosphere has been acting Ninoish in many ways for awhile now, despite recent evidence to the contrary. Whether it ever crossed an arbitrary threshold is sort of besides the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The atmosphere has been acting Ninoish in many ways for awhile now, despite recent evidence to the contrary. Whether it ever crossed an arbitrary threshold is sort of besides the point. Agreed. The nina'ish pattern will likely be transient. Aleutian low is showing back up on the ensembles down the line. What that means irt sensible wx for us is up in the air. Nino's +ao's and or nao's don't fare well here. That's the real thorn so far this winter. Not enso itself. Looks like a fairly solid weak nino and prominent +PDO to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Bob, hi I'm Kevin. Been a long time lurker. I have a few things to ask. What is the main thing that's hurting us in getting a cold/stormy pattern shaping up? Granted, I'm from the mid south but was curious.Also, I know the mjo isnt everything but is there any realistic chance we see it get to the more favorable phases of 8,1, and 2 this winter? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The water off the eastern seaboard is baking, Bob...and down in the eastern Gulf too. Would love to see some eastern Gulf or SE cyclogenesis at some point this winter. Hard to do that when all the storms head for the Lakes, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Bob, hi I'm Kevin. Been a long time lurker. I have a few things to ask. What is the main thing that's hurting us in getting a cold/stormy pattern shaping up? Granted, I'm from the mid south but was curious.Also, I know the mjo isnt everything but is there any realistic chance we see it get to the more favorable phases of 8,1, and 2 this winter? Thanks It's beyond the MJO this year. The MJO may be hurting near term chances but it's the state of the AO/NAO that is destroying long term chances. It's pretty easy to see. What we really like to see is higher heights spread all over the arctic and Greenland. This acts as a wall to lock in cold high pressure in the eastern half of the conus and also keeps organized storms from cutting right to the lakes or west of us. Picture is worth a thousand words: Good height pattern with solid -ao/nao: What we are facing is the exact opposite with a solid +ao/nao: It can still work out for some frozen with what we are facing but the odds greatly favor small and/or messy mixed bag events until you get way north where it doesn't matter as much. Anything organized will make a run for the lakes or up the apps because there is nothing in the way to force a big storm south and off the coast. Last year was a total luck season for the mid atlantic and SE. We had the same crappy +NAO but the -epo overwhelmed (and also teleconnected to the west coast ridge at times). This allowed the polar vortex to repeatedly drop down and flood the east with cold air. It was so strong that it became a block itself because it was so far south. We are moving towards a -epo pattern but it's not similar to last year so it can't be counted on. No cold shot lasted more than 3-4 days either because there was nothing to stop high pressure from retreating before the cycle could repeat. Our only chances until further notice would be timing a storm with a well placed (but transient) set of features in a pattern. Any threat beyond 4 days on the models will be totally suspect because the slightest changes in the height patterns can = large differences in outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 idk, I haven't seen anything on the models in days to think we have a shot at accumulating snow around here soon; the southern stream is died and the vortex over eastern Canada will keep is cold and dry and too far south for decent clipper action (-sn or flurries at best) I think we'll go through at least 1/20 w/o any luck then an increasing chance that things change around 1/20 or later....and if we're really lucky, things really change in FEB I believe our best chance for me to bust is getting a trailing system on a cold front from the SE ridge slowing the front is the only thing I see that could prove me wrong, but I'll take anything to be proven wrong basically, it's a crummy snow pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Para has a decent vort pass/look around the 6th. It's our next chance so it's worth keeping half an eyeball on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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