January Med/Long Range Disco

[EastCoast NPZ]

I find it interesting 86/87 is being used as the example of a turn-around winter where we can still get well-above average snowfall. 

 

By this day in December 1986, we would have just begun to parse the rain/snow line for the big New Year's Day coastal storm (got down into the mid 980's mb). Prolific snow would have already fallen in interior PA, NY, and New England, and the winter was showing itself as a predominantly negative NAO one. 

 

In other words, 86/87 by now was already a fine winter for interior areas that tend to get a lot of snow before January and the coastal plain would have already been anticipating it to be our turn given how stormy the winter started overall. (IAD would end up with 5" in a couple of days.)

 

We probably won't get blanked--- even the trying winters of 91/92 and 94/95 had a couple of decent snowstorms. I just think that we can let go of the 86/87 route (snow getting closer to the coast storm-by-storm) for getting to a historic winter. If we end up above average somehow, 86/87 will still be a bad analog for how the winter progressed. 

 

^ This.

[Amped]

all we need is a feb 83 or Feb 03 or Feb 10 and were good. Im in until Feb passes and none of that happens

Don't worry, we'll get that 3" of slop in March that's supposed to make up for the horrible unsnowy winter.

[StudentOfClimatology]

??

Only 5 instances out of 18 has a snowless Dec resulted in AN snowfall. The effect is rather evident.

No, what's being said is that a snowless Dec doesn't imply that Jan-Mar won't hit their specific avg..obviously a weak Dec will put a dent in the final numbers, but that's not what was being referenced.

[Ian]

I find it interesting 86/87 is being used as the example of a turn-around winter where we can still get well-above average snowfall. 

 

By this day in December 1986, we would have just begun to parse the rain/snow line for the big New Year's Day coastal storm (got down into the mid 980's mb). Prolific snow would have already fallen in interior PA, NY, and New England, and the winter was showing itself as a predominantly negative NAO one. 

 

In other words, 86/87 by now was already a fine winter for interior areas that tend to get a lot of snow before January and the coastal plain would have already been anticipating it to be our turn given how stormy the winter started overall. (IAD would end up with 5" in a couple of days.)

 

We probably won't get blanked--- even the trying winters of 91/92 and 94/95 had a couple of decent snowstorms. I just think that we can let go of the 86/87 route (snow getting closer to the coast storm-by-storm) for getting to a historic winter. If we end up above average somehow, 86/87 will still be a bad analog for how the winter progressed. 

Good points. It seems those putting the biggest positive spin locally are generally ignoring that it's been terrible for pretty much the entire northeast and that the pattern is still bad and has been bad for a while. It could certainly flip but you see a lot of running to the big flips and recalling how much snow we got last winter after Jan started. Both fairly unreasonable bars. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

No, what's being said is that a snowless Dec doesn't imply that Jan-Mar won't hit their specific avg..obviously a weak Dec will put a dent in the final numbers, but that's not what was being referenced.

 

Ahh, I see that I mis-interpreted what he was saying.  My apologies.

[Ji]

Good points. It seems those putting the biggest positive spin locally are generally ignoring that it's been terrible for pretty much the entire northeast and that the pattern is still bad and has been bad for a while. It could certainly flip but you see a lot of running to the big flips and recalling how much snow we got last winter after Jan started. Both fairly unreasonable bars. 

06-07 was $hitty for the entire northeast before the big Jan 15 flip. We still got screwed. with not much snow but we had the 5 inch of sleet which took until July to melt

[Ian]

Ahh, I see that I mis-interpreted what he was saying.  My apologies.

It's a comparison to final yr numbers based on no snow thru Dec.  It's a fine idea but doesn't really show anything either way. 72% avg ended up below normal.. 70% of the 30 last winters ended up below normal. Basically a wash for our climo. 

 

As alluded to by gymengineer the bigger story is that no one is seeing snow so far. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Ahh, I see that I mis-interpreted what he was saying. My apologies.

We were spoiled last winter..we saw legitimate snow in every month except November..that's a rarity here. Most of our winters feature one or two 2-3 week periods where we get 90% of our snow.

In Niños, those tend to cluster in the 2nd half of the winter. Even the crappier years like 1994-95 and 2006-07 had those "windows of performance" in the later portion of the winter. Given the fact that our large-scale forcing regimen is actually much better now than it was during both of those years, I'm kind of baffled by the panic in here. A wall-to-wall cold/snowy winter was never in the cards.

[North Balti Zen]

Are we really in a nino? Did that finally get established as a weak one? Or is it really a neutral?

 

I see it repeated a lot that we can expect a good February because Nino but I know matt and others were not thrilled with where the index for that was headed as we moved through the fall.

[HighStakes]

Are we really in a nino? Did that finally get established as a weak one? Or is it really a neutral?

 

I see it repeated a lot that we can expect a good February because Nino but I know matt and others were not thrilled with where the index for that was headed as we moved through the fall.

I was just going to ask the same question but didn't want to seem like an idiot. It does seem we have different opinions amongst some of the more knowledgeable mets and posters.

[kurtstack]

??

 

Only 5 instances out of 18 has a snowless Dec resulted in AN snowfall.  The effect is rather evident.

So you are saying there's a 28% chance of an above normal DC seasonal snowfall?  I'd be thrilled with those odds.

[NinjaWarrior2]

Looks like Euro still has the Jan 6-7 clipper system

[gymengineer]

We were spoiled last winter..we saw legitimate snow in every month except November..that's a rarity here. Most of our winters feature one or two 2-3 week periods where we get 90% of our snow.

In Niños, those tend to cluster in the 2nd half of the winter. Even the crappier years like 1994-95 and 2006-07 had those "windows of performance" in the later portion of the winter. Given the fact that our large-scale forcing regimen is actually much better now than it was during both of those years, I'm kind of baffled by the panic in here. A wall-to-wall cold/snowy winter was never in the cards.

 

Matt pointed this out over and over again--- small sample sizes, but weak Nino's usually aren't great snow winters for DC. January actually averages more snow in a weak Nino than February. It's way too early to panic, because there are many ways to get to near median snowfall even if we only get one wintry period. But it's also fine to dial back expectations that some had for a blockbuster type winter. 

 

[Ji]

Looks like Euro still has the Jan 6-7 clipper system

To the tune of .04 for me

[T. August]

Well, I'm trying to find a positive...

 

The 12z EURO looks cold starting 1/5. P-GFS is even colder, and it looks like the cold shot lasts longer. Here are the wind chills from the 12z P-GFS.

And then 2m temp anom...

[North Balti Zen]

So the positive is...cold/dry?

 

Awesome.

 

That's phin's music.

[AlaskaETC]

Well, I'm trying to find a positive...

 

The 12z EURO looks cold starting 1/5. P-GFS is even colder, and it looks like the cold shot lasts longer. Here are the wind chills from the 12z P-GFS.

And then 2m temp anom...

 

I don't mind bitter arctic air at all, at least it's a nice second place.

[aldie 22]

When it gets that cold anything can happen...I'm certainly disappointed so far but as I stated awhile back...I'm done tracking the pattern and am hoping for the surprise event...anything big maybe February ?? Slip sliding

[SnowGoose69]

Honestly don't follow him much. I still don't really believe in long range forecasting... there are exceptions to the rule but in general there seems to be a lot of quackery. 

 

There have been a crap ton of high snow pack autumns in Siberia with a +AO or NAO...the correlation doesnt work out as good as many think it ultimately does...DT has posted data before showing many 70s and 80s winters that had snowpacks along the lines of a fall 2002 or 2009 and were dumpster fires. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I do wish we had a like button here for posts that attaches member's names so I could just click "like" on gymengineer's last two posts without having to type a response saying so.

[EastCoast NPZ]

So you are saying there's a 28% chance of an above normal DC seasonal snowfall?  I'd be thrilled with those odds.

 

If you like low odds, more power to you.  Go play powerball.

 

Actually, I wonder what the % is for AN snowfall regardless of Dec outcome?

[gymengineer]

If you like low odds, more power to you.  Go play powerball.

 

Actually, I wonder what the % is for AN snowfall regardless of Dec outcome?

At DCA (so from 45/46 onwards), 39%. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

At DCA (so from 45/46 onwards), 39%. 

 

Can always count on you for the stats records.  Thank you.  

 

So, as I'd expect, a snowless Dec significantly decreases the odds for a good season.

[WxUSAF]

A couple nice solutions on the GEFS for the Great White Hope aka the Jan 5-7 clipper.  That's the one.  Region wide 1-3" or 2-4". 

[mitchnick]

A couple nice solutions on the GEFS for the Great White Hope aka the Jan 5-7 clipper.  That's the one.  Region wide 1-3" or 2-4". 

we actually want that vortex to press far enough south this time or else it goes to our north and we're left with flurries

[BristowWx]

A couple nice solutions on the GEFS for the Great White Hope aka the Jan 5-7 clipper.  That's the one.  Region wide 1-3" or 2-4". 

the Gerry Cooney Storm

[Ian]

Can always count on you for the stats records. Thank you.

So, as I'd expect, a snowless Dec significantly decreases the odds for a good season.

But it doesn't at least in our current climo.

[psuhoffman]

06-07 was $hitty for the entire northeast before the big Jan 15 flip. We still got screwed. with not much snow but we had the 5 inch of sleet which took until July to melt

It takes some luck too. Similar flip happened late in 1958 also. Both. 2007 and 1958 had 2 big blockbuster storms. One in mid feb and one in mid march both years. Only difference was in 58 both crushed our area. In 2007 both barely missed for big snows. Luck plays a big part IMO because both years were close analogs and followed a similar pattern progression but the results in snow were drastically different because of minor synoptic differences on 2 events. I still think we get a good pattern sometime after jan 20. Prob a few week window to score big then it's up to luck mostly.

[gymengineer]

It takes some luck too. Similar flip happened late in 1958 also. Both. 2007 and 1958 had 2 big blockbuster storms. One in mid feb and one in mid march both years. Only difference was in 58 both crushed our area. In 2007 both barely missed for big snows. Luck plays a big part IMO because both years were close analogs and followed a similar pattern progression but the results in snow were drastically different because of minor synoptic differences on 2 events. I still think we get a good pattern sometime after jan 20. Prob a few week window to score big then it's up to luck mostly.

Well--- there was that 11" storm in DC in early December 1957 too that dropped heavy snow all the way up to NYC....and throw in two more early March 2-4" snows between the two KU's. Even 1/58 had a major east coast snowstorm that dropped like 11" at Ocean City and buried central New England... we were too far west for that one. Early January was also pretty cold- solidly below average. I don't think I would call it "luck" at that point or a drastic flip like in 06/07. I think 57/58 was just a stormy, snowy winter.

[WEATHER53]

I don't mind bitter arctic air at all, at least it's a nice second place.

Without cold there is no snow. Cold starts it all off. Were not the waters around Gulf of Alaska very favorable in November and did they not change dramatically in just a 2 week period?