usedtobe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Mixed signals...i haven't seen it but from what I can tell in that Jan 3-6 thread the Euro is ok, not ok, great for only mapgirl, suppressed and looks like the para. Hope that clears it up. We're a tad warm as it doesn't have the big high that the para has. Still it's a better look than the GFS and probably would garner the western guys more winter weather than it's temps show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Mixed signals...i haven't seen it but from what I can tell in that Jan 3-6 thread the Euro is ok, not ok, great for only mapgirl, suppressed and looks like the para. Hope that clears it up. Mapgirl doesn't even get 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well it is at least something to track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DT was all over this forum when things looked good... Now they've gone south for the last 10 days, he's nowhere to be seen. Wonder if the 12z Euro will bring him back... he posted about it on his Facebook...cautiously but acknowledged the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DT was all over this forum when things looked good... Now they've gone south for the last 10 days, he's nowhere to be seen. Wonder if the 12z Euro will bring him back... He seems to be spending his time in the western forums these days IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Next Saturday's storm appears to usher in a period of below normal temperatures (and above normal precipitation?) The computer-generated NWS 8-14 day outlook issued Sunday gives us a 35-40% chance of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation during the January 5-11 time period. A marked change from the 3-7th time period when the forecast is for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The center of the cold anomaly is well to our west so we can't get too excited yet. Based on the NAEFS our best chance of wintry weather may be on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Andrew's latest post on his blog is a Winter SOS message: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-long-range-outlook-la-nina.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 the euro run sucked. Last night was much better but it dosent show a cutter at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 the euro run sucked. Last night was much better but it dosent show a cutter at leastLooks cold at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z Euro decimates the PV..looks like a SSW to me. That'd promote a healthy NAM flip sometime in January, if the literature is correct. This is starting to look like a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z Euro decimates the PV..looks like a SSW to me. That'd promote a healthy NAM flip sometime in January, if the literature is correct. This is starting to look like a backloaded winter. If you only count snow in February as backloaded. I have a feeling we may punt two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well it can't be a front loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If you only count snow in February as backloaded. I have a feeling we may punt two months. We're not even in January yet..I suspect we'll see something next month. Problem in December was the +EPO/zonal flow. We need amplification and good dynamics to score here w/ marginal temps, not the washed out crap everyone seems to be hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well it can't be a front loaded winter. Nope, you can't. First 3rd of met winter is pretty much a complete dud for the vast majority on the forum. There should be some winners the next couple of weeks to get the skunk off but the pattern is far from ideal even though largely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If it is not on the JMA, it is not going to happen. You're in luck, the JMA looks pretty good for the 3rd-5th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Next Saturday's storm appears to usher in a period of below normal temperatures (and above normal precipitation?) The computer-generated NWS 8-14 day outlook issued Sunday gives us a 35-40% chance of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation during the January 5-11 time period. A marked change from the 3-7th time period when the forecast is for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The center of the cold anomaly is well to our west so we can't get too excited yet. Based on the NAEFS our best chance of wintry weather may be on the 10th. which is absolutely what we want. if we're going to get a good (better) pattern we couldn't ask for a better time frame for that to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 EPS a big step back from the last two runs. Doesnt look anything like the operational. Mean track takes the low from KY, passes north of DC....fewer members to the south. So while the op seemed to shift weaker/south, the ensembles shifted weaker north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 i heard the euro weeklies uncanceled the cancelled winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 i heard the euro weeklies uncanceled the cancelled winter Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast. Winter cancel back on. The NE crew probably like it as they get there SWFE's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast. Winter cancel back on. The NE crew probably like it as they get there SWFE's. Are we looking at the same thing? Height pattern looks fine. Certainly not a torch. Weeklies suck at temps anyways. If anything, it looks like a 2 week continuation of cold pouring into the conus with progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Are we looking at the same thing? Height pattern looks fine. Certainly not a torch. Weeklies suck at temps anyways. If anything, it looks like a 2 week continuation of cold pouring into the conus with progressive flow. Yep same crap as now essentially, cold struggles to make it east. I am sure someone will tweet it out soon. There isn't a single day on the run with 850's below avg in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yep same crap as now essentially, cold struggles to make it east. I am sure someone will tweet it out soon. There isn't a single day on the run with 850's below avg in the east. The only useful tool is h5. Week 3 has a +pna/-epo. I don't care what 850 says. I know what the means irt sensible wx in the east. Even when lower heights show up in the west week 4, the same general pattern is still intact. We can agree to disagree on this but I wouldn't be upset with the run if I lived in NC at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The only useful tool is h5. Week 3 has a +pna/-epo. I don't care what 850 says. I know what the means irt sensible wx in the east. Even when lower heights show up in the west week 4, the same general pattern is still intact. We can agree to disagree on this but I wouldn't be upset with the run if I lived in NC at all. I would love to be wrong :-). This is what one of OH-V guys just tweeted out... Don't mind SE ridges/+NAO around here. Give me 07-08/SWFE's any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 MUCH OF DEC saw -EPO We're not even in January yet..I suspect we'll see something next month. Problem in December was the +EPO/zonal flow. We need amplification and good dynamics to score here w/ marginal temps, not the washed out crap everyone seems to be hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It is because the folks who push and talk about the SSWE ... somehow always seem to show that it means the pattern change is going to be " GREAT NEWS" news for the eastern US There are Numerous cases of SSWE impacting some other part of the Northern Hemisphere besides the eastern US ... In 2011-12 the SSWE happened and it turned central/ eastern Europe the Ukraine and western Russia bitterly cold .... and had NO impact in the any part of the US Why all the SSW hate? The effects of these phenomenon are well researched and very significant in the long run, when antecedent conditions are favorable. It was the major SSW in January of 2007 that turned the tide on that winter. Same goes for the event in January 2013.Posting from a plane @ 35kft, so hopefully this post goes through properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 there is REASON why THIS keeps happening LEFT SIDE is the ECMWF ENS from DEC 12 .. valid for DEC 25 the right Side is ACTUAL 500 mb on DEC 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 there is REASON why THIS keeps happening LEFT SIDE is the ECMWF ENS from DEC 12 .. valid for DEC 25 the right Side is ACTUAL 500 mb on DEC 25 compare .jpg I think we are really dumping the SE ridge this time around, I could be wrong but I think the W Coast will see a true ridge develop vs the crap EPO ridge, crap as far as people in the MA go anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 MUCH OF DEC saw -EPO Not until quite recently: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It is because the folks who push and talk about the SSWE ... somehow always seem to show that it means the pattern change is going to be " GREAT NEWS" news for the eastern US There are Numerous cases of SSWE impacting some other part of the Northern Hemisphere besides the eastern US ... In 2011-12 the SSWE happened and it turned central/ eastern Europe the Ukraine and western Russia bitterly cold .... and had NO impact in the any part of the US Agreed, but there were reasons for that outcome, largely involving strong convection over the IO/Indonesian domain. I'm not saying SSWings are always the solution, but they do have a demonstratable effect on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Late range Atari, too amusing not to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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