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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Mixed signals...i haven't seen it but from what I can tell in that Jan 3-6 thread the Euro is  ok, not ok, great for only mapgirl, suppressed and looks like the para.

 

Hope that clears it up. 

We're a tad warm as it doesn't have the big high that the para has.  Still it's a better look than the GFS and probably would garner the western guys more winter weather than it's temps show right now. 

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Next Saturday's storm appears to usher in a period of below normal temperatures (and above normal precipitation?) The computer-generated NWS 8-14 day outlook issued Sunday gives us a 35-40% chance of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation during the January 5-11 time period. A marked change from the 3-7th time period when the forecast is for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The center of the cold anomaly is well to our west so we can't get too excited yet.  Based on the NAEFS our best chance of wintry weather may be on the 10th. 

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12z Euro decimates the PV..looks like a SSW to me. That'd promote a healthy NAM flip sometime in January, if the literature is correct.

This is starting to look like a backloaded winter.

 

If you only count snow in February as backloaded. I have a feeling we may punt two months.

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If you only count snow in February as backloaded. I have a feeling we may punt two months.

We're not even in January yet..I suspect we'll see something next month. Problem in December was the +EPO/zonal flow. We need amplification and good dynamics to score here w/ marginal temps, not the washed out crap everyone seems to be hoping for.

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Next Saturday's storm appears to usher in a period of below normal temperatures (and above normal precipitation?) The computer-generated NWS 8-14 day outlook issued Sunday gives us a 35-40% chance of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation during the January 5-11 time period. A marked change from the 3-7th time period when the forecast is for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The center of the cold anomaly is well to our west so we can't get too excited yet.  Based on the NAEFS our best chance of wintry weather may be on the 10th. 

 

which is absolutely what we want.  if we're going to get a good (better) pattern we couldn't ask for a better time frame for that to begin.  

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i heard the euro weeklies uncanceled the cancelled winter

Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast. Winter cancel back on.

The NE crew probably like it as they get there SWFE's.

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Temp wise they are a torch for the entire run for the entire east coast. Same crap as now, all the cold is in the west, higher heights along the east coast. Winter cancel back on.

The NE crew probably like it as they get there SWFE's.

Are we looking at the same thing? Height pattern looks fine. Certainly not a torch. Weeklies suck at temps anyways. If anything, it looks like a 2 week continuation of cold pouring into the conus with progressive flow.

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Are we looking at the same thing? Height pattern looks fine. Certainly not a torch. Weeklies suck at temps anyways. If anything, it looks like a 2 week continuation of cold pouring into the conus with progressive flow.

Yep same crap as now essentially, cold struggles to make it east. I am sure someone will tweet it out soon. There isn't a single day on the run with 850's below avg in the east.

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Yep same crap as now essentially, cold struggles to make it east. I am sure someone will tweet it out soon. There isn't a single day on the run with 850's below avg in the east.

The only useful tool is h5. Week 3 has a +pna/-epo. I don't care what 850 says. I know what the means irt sensible wx in the east. Even when lower heights show up in the west week 4, the same general pattern is still intact. We can agree to disagree on this but I wouldn't be upset with the run if I lived in NC at all.

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The only useful tool is h5. Week 3 has a +pna/-epo. I don't care what 850 says. I know what the means irt sensible wx in the east. Even when lower heights show up in the west week 4, the same general pattern is still intact. We can agree to disagree on this but I wouldn't be upset with the run if I lived in NC at all.

I would love to be wrong :-).

This is what one of OH-V guys just tweeted out...

Don't mind SE ridges/+NAO around here. Give me 07-08/SWFE's any day.

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MUCH OF  DEC   saw  -EPO
 

 

We're not even in January yet..I suspect we'll see something next month. Problem in December was the +EPO/zonal flow. We need amplification and good dynamics to score here w/ marginal temps, not the washed out crap everyone seems to be hoping for.

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It is  because  the folks who push and talk about the SSWE  ...  somehow always seem to  show that it means the pattern  change   is going to be " GREAT NEWS"  news for the eastern US

 There are Numerous cases of SSWE    impacting  some other part of the  Northern Hemisphere besides  the   eastern US ... In 2011-12  the SSWE   happened and it  turned  central/ eastern Europe  the Ukraine and   western Russia bitterly cold .... and  had NO impact  in the   any part of the US
 

Why all the SSW hate? The effects of these phenomenon are well researched and very significant in the long run, when antecedent conditions are favorable. It was the major SSW in January of 2007 that turned the tide on that winter. Same goes for the event in January 2013.

Posting from a plane @ 35kft, so hopefully this post goes through properly.

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there is REASON why THIS keeps happening

LEFT SIDE is the ECMWF ENS from DEC 12 .. valid for DEC 25

the right Side is ACTUAL 500 mb on DEC 25

compare .jpg

I think we are really dumping the SE ridge this time around, I could be wrong but I think the W Coast will see a true ridge develop vs the crap EPO ridge, crap as far as people in the MA go anyway

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It is because the folks who push and talk about the SSWE ... somehow always seem to show that it means the pattern change is going to be " GREAT NEWS" news for the eastern US

There are Numerous cases of SSWE impacting some other part of the Northern Hemisphere besides the eastern US ... In 2011-12 the SSWE happened and it turned central/ eastern Europe the Ukraine and western Russia bitterly cold .... and had NO impact in the any part of the US

Agreed, but there were reasons for that outcome, largely involving strong convection over the IO/Indonesian domain. I'm not saying SSWings are always the solution, but they do have a demonstratable effect on the NAM.

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