BristowWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Latest euro ensembles give me some hope Jan4-5. Lots of members with midAtl snow. Several huge ones, including one that covers VA with a foot+. Good "trend". Everyone is beaten down. No one thinks it will be there next run I 'm sure. But that is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Time to start a Jan 3-5 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Time to start a Jan 3-5 thread.[/quot e] Its all a snow in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Time to start a Jan 3-5 thread.First, probably need a thread for this earth shattering event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Time to start a Jan 3-5 thread. Don't you dare! You will JINX it like you have with every other event this season! ITS ALL YOUR FAULT, IAN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 He's been pretty mediocre the last bunch of winters other than 2012-13 in which he did really well....I think once he went from legend to us seeing his actual numbers, we realized he was human just like the rest of us....I also don't think him being kind of hesitant to expose his outlooks to criticism has helped him. So nothing astounding. But he has been doing this a long time and has had some great calls and some bad ones. If he does well this winter in the face of mostly cold outlooks, he will deserve a lot of credit and I will be the 1st to give it to him. This astounding/uncanny stuff is a bit of hyperbole. I've said this over the years, but I don't think you blowing him up has helped his reputation. Based on the description of how magical this guy was, I am pretty unimpressed with what he has put out there over the last 10-15 winters. These outlooks aren't easy. I don't think I am any better than KA. Hopefully he is wrong, but if he does well, this will be a big coup. For what it's worth, I gave a talk to DC-AMS at Washington Post, and I gave a shout-out to KA for doing these outlooks for so long and being the inspiration of sorts for me doing them in a similar manner. He deserves a lot of kudos for being somewhat of a pioneer when it comes to local winter outlooks with specific numbers. Nicely stated however there really is not a "rest of us" You and he lead the pack, there is a Lot of talent that has given this a go in the last 5-10 years and I am not sure if they are even batting 50/50 while your and Keiths efforts are more in the 66% range, 2 out of 3. Right here on the internet 12 years ago most posters swore that LR really could not be done and that Keith was lucky. Now several dozen take a crack at it each winter. I never blew him up but I stated the reality and I have stated the reality once again just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yup. Not much discussion on it, but nice change...hopefully its a trend. Guess folks are busy today. Most people are jaded and beat down. And knowing how the 0z Euro will probably show a 598dm SE ridge, it's probably prudent that nobody jump on this "trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 In our area, modeled snow always comes first, and then reality is a small percentage of the modeled snow. Anything else we get would fall in the fluke category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Most people are jaded and beat down. And knowing how the 0z Euro will probably show a 598dm SE ridge, it's probably prudent that nobody jump on this "trend". The euro has been adamant now for 3 runs or so that the SE ridge will likely be beaten down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 The euro has been adamant now for 3 runs or so that the SE ridge will likely be beaten down Inspires great confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The euro has been adamant now for 3 runs or so that the SE ridge will likely be beaten down If that happens, then will this "Nina-like" pattern finally come to an end and behave more like a proper El Nino? Or are there other factors too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Inspires great confidence. Looks pretty close to the 1/20/2001 setup. But with models all over the place I have little confidence anything remotely similar will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks pretty close to the 1/20/2001 setup. But with models all over the place I have little confidence anything remotely similar will verify. it'll flatten out between then and now and who knows what the ultimate result will be....certainly not the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para FTW Canadian snowmap not too far from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 6Z GFS is trying to give me and DCA a Twelfth-Night present. Can someone else have it instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 So that thing on the 5th/6th is showing on the para, Canadian, and euro in some fashion or another - that's the first time thisn year i think, that a threat has shown up early on several models at once. Maybe a reason to hold a little hope for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 If it is not on the JMA, it is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The link below is showing sharp warming of anomalies continuing above the 10 mb level of the stratosphere. There was about a 4C anomaly warming just since yesterday's released map to ~+13 C at the warmest anomaly level of 1-2 mb. Watch to see how much warmer it gets over the next 3-5 days as this updates daily. If that prog that Mitch posted Saturday were to verify, I'd expect to see some brown colors (+28 to +32) within 3-5 days, which would make it a top 12 strong SSW since at least 1979 based on these anomalies, alone: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Now we wait for the euro to spit out some amped up slow moving bowling ball that stays for 72 hours gives 20"+ inches of modeled snow from Richmond to the PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Now we wait for the euro to spit out some amped up slow moving bowling ball that stays for 72 hours gives 20"+ inches of modeled snow from Richmond to the PA border Rain. we only do rain threats now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 i dont even look at the old GFS anymore. It never shows snow so why bother. Para all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What now only 26 or so more runs for it to hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What now only 26 or so more runs for it to hold... a visitor from across the pond will be here soon to crush our dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 a visitor from across the pond will be here soon to crush our dreams Keep worshipping at that altar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Keep worshipping at that altar. I'm on Team GFS (Atari). You should join too. We could print T-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Curious what people think about euro....to my untrained eyes looks like extended period of marginal temp overrunning and some marginal temp flizzarding for DC and thereabouts from Sunday through Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 So did the Euro take it away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 So did the Euro take it away? Mixed signals...i haven't seen it but from what I can tell in that Jan 3-6 thread the Euro is ok, not ok, great for only mapgirl, suppressed and looks like the para. Hope that clears it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 DT was all over this forum when things looked good... Now they've gone south for the last 10 days, he's nowhere to be seen. Wonder if the 12z Euro will bring him back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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