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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Latest euro ensembles give me some hope Jan4-5. Lots of members with midAtl snow. Several huge ones, including one that covers VA with a foot+. Good "trend".

Everyone is beaten down. No one thinks it will be there next run I 'm sure. But that is something to watch.

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He's been pretty mediocre the last bunch of winters other than 2012-13 in which he did really well....I think once he went from legend to us seeing his actual numbers, we realized he was human just like the rest of us....I also don't think him being kind of hesitant to expose his outlooks to criticism has helped him.  So nothing astounding.  But he has been doing this a long time and has had some great calls and some bad ones.  If he does well this winter in the face of mostly cold outlooks, he will deserve a lot of credit and I will be the 1st to give it to him.  This astounding/uncanny stuff is a bit of hyperbole.  I've said this over the years, but I don't think you blowing him up has helped his reputation.  Based on the description of how magical this guy was, I am pretty unimpressed with what he has put out there over the last 10-15 winters.  These outlooks aren't easy.  I don't think I am any better than KA.  Hopefully he is wrong, but if he does well, this will be a big coup.  For what it's worth, I gave a talk to DC-AMS at Washington Post, and I gave a shout-out to KA for doing these outlooks for so long and being the inspiration of sorts for me doing them in a similar manner.  He deserves a lot of kudos for being somewhat of a pioneer when it comes to local winter outlooks with specific numbers.

Nicely stated however there really is not a "rest of us" You and he lead the pack, there is a Lot of talent that has given this a go in the last 5-10 years and I am not sure if they are even batting 50/50 while your and Keiths efforts are more in the 66% range, 2 out of 3. Right here on the internet 12 years ago most posters swore that LR really could not be done and that Keith was lucky. Now several dozen take a crack at it each winter. I never blew him up but I stated the reality and I have stated the reality once again just now.

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The link below is showing sharp warming of anomalies continuing above the 10 mb level of the stratosphere. There was about a 4C anomaly warming just since yesterday's released map to ~+13 C at the warmest anomaly level of 1-2 mb. Watch to see how much warmer it gets over the next 3-5 days as this updates daily. If that prog that Mitch posted Saturday were to verify, I'd expect to see some brown colors (+28 to +32) within 3-5 days, which would make it a top 12 strong SSW since at least 1979 based on these anomalies, alone:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif

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