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January 2015 General Discussion


Powerball

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If there is one thing I have learned over the years, no matter how cold of a pattern you are in or how great of a snow pattern you are in, thaws are pesky and will be a bit warmer than forecast. No torch by any means, but it hovered in the 38-42F range from 1pm to 3am. Also the dewpoints creeped up to 34F at 3-4am. Still hovering at 36F. The snowpack took a big hit. Id call average depth 2" right now, certainly higher spots but also some bare spots showing up in the usual places. The heavily traveled roads have that thawed look of dirty snowbanks, patches of snow, and lots of brown grass.

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We underperformed relative to the increased forecast temps yesterday, but we are overperforming a bit again today.  Our snow is mostly gone now.  Many front yards in my neighborhood are 50+% snow-free.  Even my enclosed backyard is down to 1 inch.  I'm enjoying the mild temps and especially the bright sun.  January has been MUCH sunnier than December.

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If there is one thing I have learned over the years, no matter how cold of a pattern you are in or how great of a snow pattern you are in, thaws are pesky and will be a bit warmer than forecast. No torch by any means, but it hovered in the 38-42F range from 1pm to 3am. Also the dewpoints creeped up to 34F at 3-4am. Still hovering at 36F. The snowpack took a big hit. Id call average depth 2" right now, certainly higher spots but also some bare spots showing up in the usual places. The heavily traveled roads have that thawed look of dirty snowbanks, patches of snow, and lots of brown grass.

 

The little bit of rain we had didn't help either, as patches of grass have also returned.

 

On the bright side, the streets are practically snow/ice free now...:thumbsup:

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Today was as damp and dreary as they come. Puddles, melting snow, rain and snow showers - its like a petri dish for wintertime sickness. Snowpack took a much bigger hit than I had hoped for the last 2 days, but what can you do when it comes to the old January thaw. Calling depth on average 1 inch right now....but there are tons of bare spots (moreso in front yards than backyards, backyard is still mostly snow with just a few bare spots), and the heavily traveled or open roads are mainly just grass and piles with the occasional drift.

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It's like Maine Mud Season around here.  Where there isn't snow ( or water glazed snow icing) it's like melted permafrost.  My grass that's showing is getting destroyed by the Yard Apes playing in it. Supposed to get down to 25 tonight, gonna have frozen mud stalagmites everywhere in the morning  :angry:

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Took advantage of the relatively warm evening and ran out at half time during the Pats game and washed the truck.  Nice to get all the salt off finally.  Have cooled off quite a bit since though, and have dipped back to 25.  

 

Just patches of snow left now.  Had a nice 6-7" of snow pack 4-5 days ago. 

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update from my earlier post...

Pretty rare to see this kind of fluffy snow ratios.

MQT:

Today's snowfall along Lake Superior is about as dry and fluffy as snow can get. The 2.7 inches that fell at NWS Marquette between 1am and 1pm today contained only 0.05" of liquid, producing a snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) of 54:1. In other words, with this dry of snow, 1 inch of "rain" would translate to 54 inches of snow. Here are some other SLR's for comparison:

- Sleet/ice pellets: 2.5 to 1

- Very wet snow: 8 to 1

- Typical system snow: 12-15 to 1

- Typical lake effect snow: 20-25 to 1

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It's always neat seeing those high ratio snowfalls, but the NWS can't say that had 1" liquid fallen that 54" of snow would have fallen because it assumes that there would be no more compaction from the weight of all that snow.

There's a reason so many extreme high ratio snow events are less than 6" because compaction increasingly becomes a factor above that making SLR less impressive.

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It looks like northern Ohio and northern Indiana, as well as, possibly the Detroit area, and Pennsylvania, may see 1-3" from the Tuesday-Wednesday clipper. (Note: now the TropicalTidbits web site does not have extreme snow-liquid ratios anymore. Levi Cowan has recently set all snow-liquid ratios to 10:1.)

 

DTX discussion

 

 

MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO CUT BACK POPS LATER IN
[Tuesday] AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH FROM THE HIGH POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM AND OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN MODELS PROG A SLUG OF 700 MB MOISTURE AND OMEGA
TO TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE DELAY IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAISE THEM ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
THESE FEATURES ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.  MUCH LIKE TUESDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND ACTUAL SHORTWAVE...WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN IN
POPS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ALBEIT NOT BY MUCH...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING A LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME AND A SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
A BIT MORE SNOWFALL.  THAT BEING SAID SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 

post-1182-0-04396300-1421700349_thumb.pn

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That's something you might typically find in the dog days of summer, not mid winter.

 

Unfortunately, it also means our weather is extremely boring. As for the next couple day, I'd rather be in Southern MN. Probably won't even receive an inch up here.

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