Nygmen Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 yup on to the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lol jumping off the bridges its real. Like I said another run, another solution. Clear and simple. I bet 1 million, that 00z Euro would look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 What did the 12z euro show for South of nyc? Like between ttn & phl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Lol jumping off the bridges its real. Like I said another run, another solution. Clear and simple. I bet 1 million, that 00z Euro would look different. theres no model that shows more than maybe snow showers...take the weenie glasses of bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 What did the 12z euro show for South of nyc? Like between ttn & phl? not much...dustings to an inch at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 12Z Euro is South, game over. Still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Still early Hope springs eternal, but this winter so far -- in terms of the temps so far -- is reminding me a great deal of 2011-2012. It might really be very different in terms of the drivers behind-the-scenes, but I remember the forecasts of a pattern change that never materialized. It seems to be the same thing so far this season. My one request: If it's going to be warm, just be warm. I still have to turn on the heat when it's 45 degrees out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Sometimes in these setups the models under estimate QPF. Regardless as to whether or not the system ends up being sheared out has little bearing on moisture availability. If you have the moisture and a source for lift, it's going to precipitate. So that's why I feel as though a narrow but relatively robust area of precipitation is likely. The wettest areas should be the DC to ACY corridor, but cold air will be lacking that far South so I don't expect much in the way of snow South of say PHL-TTN and nothing more than a few slushy inches just North of there, with next to nothing North of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 What a lovely pattern we are in :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml OPC 96hr cast weakens the surface low on the water 1009 mb -1012 mb and drops it a bit southeast 500mb Flatline the result http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml Upper jet pattern is very unrelenting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 18z GFS is coming in a bit further NW with everything but also weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 No help on the 18z PGFS. It's drier despite a better look initially. And still nothing like the 06z run which blew up the trailing energy. This one is pretty much DOA. I just took a look at the Euro ensembles and only 3 out of 51 members have a definable low pressure system near the East Coast at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 00Z NAM is more amped with the 2nd wave now but not enough IMO to get excited yet given the NAM's bias at this range, it did surprise me though trending this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 00Z NAM is more amped with the 2nd wave now but not enough IMO to get excited yet given the NAM's bias at this range, it did surprise me though trending this way Though it won't be a very significant storm like some others have been early in the season until now, I do think that this is the best chance for many of us (metro NJ/NYC/LI) to see our first 1-3" event of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 00Z NAM is more amped with the 2nd wave now but not enough IMO to get excited yet given the NAM's bias at this range, it did surprise me though trending this way Goose this about the range the 2nd wave would sniff the ridge. The 1st wave came further N today on some models and is almost like a FROPA. Wave 2 would b colder and although doesn't have a trailer to deepen it if it came N along the arctic wave with low level cold air seeping into it you could get something small. I would b happy if it was there at 12z tomorrow otherwise I would put it to bed. But not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like the models are starting to improve on the 2nd wave. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The GGEM looks a nose better than 12Z but not a whole lot...the UKMET continues to be fairly north vs the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 GEFS looks solid for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 how solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 how solid? Light snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 hopefully this thing can trend somehow it really doesnt look good after this for big snowfall in the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 hopefully this thing can trend somehow it really doesnt look good after this for big snowfall in the foreseeable future Euro is a miss. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This threat has been a miss for quite awhile now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Euro is a miss, what a winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This threat has been a miss for quite awhile now... Uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Uh? GFS has been a miss basically from the get go The ECM , outside of that one run...basically has been a no go as well... Pattern to progressive thanks to pacific jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The firehose pac jet rules this season unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 18z nam has a secs for the mid atlantic on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 60 hour+ nam is as useful as the 384 hr gfs....just saying. I wouldn't put much stock into it at this range anyway. Show it at 30 hours and it has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 60 hour+ nam is as useful as the 384 hr gfs....just saying. I wouldn't put much stock into it at this range anyway. Show it at 30 hours and it has my interest. NAM and more so, SREF's still have 1-3" ... I'd hug them if you want to save winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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