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Dec 29th/30th storm chance


Zelocita Weather

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Lol jumping off the bridges its real. Like I said another run, another solution. Clear and simple. I bet 1 million, that 00z Euro would look different.

theres no model that shows more than maybe snow showers...take the weenie glasses of bud

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Still early

Hope springs eternal, but this winter so far -- in terms of the temps so far -- is reminding me a great deal of 2011-2012. It might really be very different in terms of the drivers behind-the-scenes, but I remember the forecasts of a pattern change that never materialized. It seems to be the same thing so far this season.

My one request: If it's going to be warm, just be warm. I still have to turn on the heat when it's 45 degrees out.

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Sometimes in these setups the models under estimate QPF. Regardless as to whether or not the system ends up being sheared out has little bearing on moisture availability. If you have the moisture and a source for lift, it's going to precipitate. So that's why I feel as though a narrow but relatively robust area of precipitation is likely. The wettest areas should be the DC to ACY corridor, but cold air will be lacking that far South so I don't expect much in the way of snow South of say PHL-TTN and nothing more than a few slushy inches just North of there, with next to nothing North of I-80.

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No help on the 18z PGFS. It's drier despite a better look initially. And still nothing like the 06z run which blew up the trailing energy.

 

This one is pretty much DOA.

 

I just took a look at the Euro ensembles and only 3 out of 51 members have a definable low pressure system near the East Coast at 72 hours. 

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The 00Z NAM is more amped with the 2nd wave now but not enough IMO to get excited yet given the NAM's bias at this range, it did surprise me though trending this way

nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

Though it won't be a very significant storm like some others have been early in the season until now, I do think that this is the best chance for many of us (metro NJ/NYC/LI) to see our first 1-3" event of the season

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The 00Z NAM is more amped with the 2nd wave now but not enough IMO to get excited yet given the NAM's bias at this range, it did surprise me though trending this way

 

nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

Goose this about the range the 2nd wave would sniff the ridge.

The 1st wave came further N today on some models and is almost like a FROPA.

Wave 2 would b colder and although doesn't have a trailer to deepen it if it came N along the arctic wave with low level cold air seeping into it you could get something small.

I would b happy if it was there at 12z tomorrow otherwise I would put it to bed.

But not yet.

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