CIK62 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 JMA (JustModelAllusions) is also pumped with a lot of precip. but all three critical thickness lines are 30-50 miles north and west of NYC at 144hrs from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12Z PARA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z ggem is a solid hit for all Monday afternoon...4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Ggem? 4-8...Monday afternoon into Tuesday early morning..low.moves ene from delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM aint budging one bit. Definitely has my attention now cause the GFS looks pretty much the same just with no cold air. So I think it's all a matter of if that cold air gets in here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Why would a ridge in front of low pressure cause a SW to flatten out ? The opposite should be true right. A SE ridge should buckle the trough and bend those isobars so the heights rise along the coast. If the confluence is too strong it would flatten out the ridge That's what the GFS thinks. The GGEM PARA and 12z euro ensembles disagree. Guys think every model is gona show a snowstorm otherwise " it's over " . EC snowstorms never work that way. My post was just observing Doormans GIF and the interaction of the se ridge with the pattern flow. Yeah, I'm a snow weenie but I think logically and rational. Please don't lump me in with all of the other guys, I wasn't even thinking about any storm... just the ridge and it's reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My post was just observing Doormans GIF and the interaction of the se ridge with the pattern flow. Yeah, I'm a snow weenie but I think logically and rational. Please don't lump me in with all of the other guys, I wasn't even thinking about any storm... just the ridge and it's reaction. He believed the flow would b fast and the confluence would crush the ridge. I see the ridge. ( which with a neg epo ) I have always liked. Today some models see it my way. Tomorrow they may see it his way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Hard to tell through 72 but it does appear the UKMET may be headed the direction of the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This would give us the needed criteria for a potentially snowy winter up ahead. Let's hope this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I hope it works out because honestly it feels like we've just entered spring rather than winter and today's Easter like weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFS ensembles are not biting at all...only 2-3 maybe resemble the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFS ensembles are not biting at all...only 2-3 maybe resemble the GEMthis all depends on how much energy splits off the western trough and when... this is a difficult forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 One thing is for sure, Upton is not biting. I'm going to play the trend and say any snow that does fall is inland and elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro looks better with second wave just not totally there yet .1 to ttn .25 to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 One thing is for sure, Upton is not biting. I'm going to play the trend and say any snow that does fall is inland and elevated In this case it's probably either snow or suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 In this case it's probably either snow or suppressed Yes. Depends on how far south the front comes down when the precip ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Euro looks better with second wave just not totally there yet .1 to ttn .25 to phl It never takes big moves in one run, if it is indeed headed to the more amped solution it'll take at least 2 more runs til it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM aint budging one bit. Definitely has my attention now cause the GFS looks pretty much the same just with no cold air. So I think it's all a matter of if that cold air gets in here fast enough.Jrodd, the GFS is amplifying a different wave altogether. Nothing at all like the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 The models tend to send systems off to our south during a Neg EPO with a ridge in the SE in the midrange for some reason . This was the disco for last Feb 4th Post SB snow where temps were in the mid 50`s 36 hours prior to this event . You had a SE ridge and Neg EPO .There was a pressing cold front and a system in the Southern branch came NE along the Baroclinc zone that event that dropped 6 -8 inches of snow from Philly through Monmouth County . 4 days before many models had that system off to our S and E and up until 2 days prior some thought 1- 3 was the call . http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42642-feb-3rd-event/ This was the European ensemble 84 hour 500 mb for 2 -3 -2014 and this is the European ensemble 500 mb for Monday the 29th . Not an exact match , but you can see why in a NEG EPO regime with a SE ridge you just can`t assume it`s suppressed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 This is the type of system that could trend more favorably the closer we get just like PB alluded to last years systems. A lot of these minor to moderate snow events are picked up within a short time frame that's why you can't ever assume just because models show cold and dry for days means it'll verify that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 This is the type of system that could trend more favorably the closer we get just like PB alluded to last years systems. A lot of these minor to moderate snow events are picked up within a short time frame that's why you can't ever assume just because models show cold and dry for days means it'll verify that way. Do you have any new information to add? Seems that you just restated what Paul just said. Which systems, specifically, trended more favorably last year as we got closer? Why, specifically, is it a possibility with this system coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Um. Anyone want to comment on the GFS/Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Um. Anyone want to comment on the GFS/Para? GFS remains very suppressed. Develops a weak wave off the NC coast Monday night... didn't look at the para though. The lack of a -NAO is hurting our chances obviously and it seems the trough axis out west associated with the EPO block is a little too far west. EDIT: It's probably more the PV being overbearing and flattening the flow along the east coast than the position of the western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 GFS remains very suppressed. Develops a weak wave off the NC coast Monday night... didn't look at the para though. The lack of a -NAO is hurting our chances obviously and it seems the trough axis out west associated with the EPO block is a little too far west. gfs shows .25-.50 of precip area wise. way different than 18 z(precip wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 gfs shows .25-.50 of precip area wise. way different than 18 z(precip wise) My bad, I didn't realize it focuses on a different shortwave. It looks like there'd be BL issues with that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 My bad, I didn't realize it focuses on a different shortwave. It looks like there'd be BL issues with that precip. i didnt look at any soundings just glanced at the precip amounts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 My bad, I didn't realize it focuses on a different shortwave. It looks like there'd be BL issues with that precip. Does look warm outside the NW zones. But more precip. It's a step though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 00z GGEM shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 00z GGEM shifted south. Warmer and weaker: Not much snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.