Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Ggem, euro advertising a chance for a winter storm next monday/tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Ggem, euro advertising a chance for a winter storm next monday/tuesday... Gone on 12 z Euro I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 As soon as we see the light..it gets dark again. Euro loses the Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122412/ecmwf_T850_eus_7.png Toss it or Gloss it for the dm's vague and cryptic ....posse 24hrs ago http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44961-december-forecast-discussion/?view=findpost&p=3209110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The models have been so inconsistent this season that I honestly don't know what's going to happen. It's like throwing darts on a weather map. My hunch as it was last winter is that if a snow event is going to happen it won't be forecast by the models at Day 7+. Rather it'll just sort of appear subtly within a day 3-4 timeframe and gradually trend more favorably from there. A KU on the other hand would be seen over a week out but currently and moving forward the pattern is not very KU friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Further N that the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Gfs shows nothing while the Para has a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para looks like an advisory event for NYC into SNE. Another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Para doesn't look to bad, central pa gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Gfs shows nothing while the Para has a snow event where can i find the para link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 where can i find the para link? Tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 where can i find the para link? tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Gfs shows nothing while the Para has a snow event Difference comes near hour 108 when Para has deeper, further east trough and a wrinkle in it over N.Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFS 850 mb guidance http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 What the pipeline looks like thru Jan 1st http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/g8_zpsnk8yxpvo.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Enhanced for Clarity OPC outlook SE ridge guidance and MSLP track http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/O500_zpsgkqsdi3z.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Enhanced for Clarity O500.gif OPC outlook SE ridge guidance and MSLP track http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/O500_zpsgkqsdi3z.gif I tried posting in the previous post asking if the se ridge was the cause for "flattening out"....looks to be so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Threat looks dead...0 gfs says it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Gfs and ParA keep both waves south of the area at 00z... Well the parallel actually has some snow here for 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Second wave on ParA does get up here 2-4 3-6 type deal...starts early Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Second wave on ParA does get up here 2-4 3-6 type deal...starts early Tuesday morning Gfs model has owned the pattern this year. Euro is garbage in garbage out. Para is a mess. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I tried posting in the previous post asking if the se ridge was the cause for "flattening out"....looks to be so...Why would a ridge in front of low pressure cause a SW to flatten out ? The opposite should be true right. A SE ridge should buckle the trough and bend those isobars so the heights rise along the coast. If the confluence is too strong it would flatten out the ridge That's what the GFS thinks. The GGEM PARA and 12z euro ensembles disagree. Guys think every model is gona show a snowstorm otherwise " it's over " . EC snowstorms never work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Threat looks dead...0 gfs says it's over I hope you're being sarcastic with this post for your sake...Are you serious man? 00z GGEM looks like a crushing, 12z EURO ens looked really good, Para GFS is a close call, UKMET looks much better....We await the EURO but you dismiss the storm potential on a 4-5 day GFS panel, dude.....considering this is the first REAL shot at a legit snowstorm all season, whaaaaaatttt???? Did you drink too much egg nog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This threat is far from dead. This is actually probably the best threat we have had so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM has been consistent with showing a snow event for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nothing on the Euro ..Heights are too compressed due to the cold push south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nothing on the Euro ..Heights are too compressed due to the cold push south... Heights have verifying stronger aiding in resistance so while the GGEM is probably way off im not gonna go as far as to say what it shows is a joke. Agree it's probably our most legit threat all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Heights have verifying stronger aiding in resistance so while the GGEM is probably way off im not gonna go as far as to say what it shows is a joke. Agree it's probably our most legit threat all season. All season? You realize the season just started a few days ago right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Threat looks dead...0 gfs says it's overThe Wiggum Storm does not die so quickly a death as is presumed. Learn to use guidance as a tool and not gospel. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Its likely not anything of consequence but its bizarre to see the NavGEM and Canadian be so amped for Monday and the GFS/Euro be so flat...I've been on the flat train all along so not ready to jump at all based on those 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.