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Dec 29th/30th storm chance


Zelocita Weather

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The models have been so inconsistent this season that I honestly don't know what's going to happen. It's like throwing darts on a weather map.

My hunch as it was last winter is that if a snow event is going to happen it won't be forecast by the models at Day 7+. Rather it'll just sort of appear subtly within a day 3-4 timeframe and gradually trend more favorably from there.

A KU on the other hand would be seen over a week out but currently and moving forward the pattern is not very KU friendly.

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I tried posting in the previous post asking if the se ridge was the cause for "flattening out"....looks to be so...

Why would a ridge in front of low pressure cause a SW to flatten out ?

The opposite should be true right. A SE ridge should buckle the trough and bend those isobars so the heights rise along the coast.

If the confluence is too strong it would flatten out the ridge

That's what the GFS thinks. The GGEM PARA and 12z euro ensembles disagree.

Guys think every model is gona show a snowstorm otherwise " it's over " . EC snowstorms never work that way.

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Threat looks dead...0 gfs says it's over

 

I hope you're being sarcastic with this post for your sake...Are you serious man?

 

00z GGEM looks like a crushing, 12z EURO ens looked really good, Para GFS is a close call, UKMET looks much better....We await the EURO but you dismiss the storm potential on a 4-5 day GFS panel, dude.....considering this is the first REAL shot at a legit snowstorm all season, whaaaaaatttt???? Did you drink too much egg nog?

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Heights have verifying stronger aiding in resistance so while the GGEM is probably way off im not gonna go as far as to say what it shows is a joke.

Agree it's probably our most legit threat all season.

All season? You realize the season just started a few days ago right?

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