Whitelakeroy Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Congrats IL folks ... have a Merry White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gino's overnight was a tour de force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Latest GEFS show that despite decent low agreement, the sensible weather for any one area varies so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 i like to go back and look at pre-game shots later so i saved a few early looking barcoclinic leaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z NAM sticking with a quality defo structure for the most highly advertised areas. good bit quicker as well EDIT: probably the best overall weenie run for MBY, starts wet but wicked defo structure hits and we'd flip to SN with ease and it wraps up nice and tight in just the right spot. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Going from here to Oswego for family Christmas party, and the other half is worried about driving. I am thinking 1"-2" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Route 51 in IL does really well on 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Route 51 in IL does really well on 12z NAM If you are going to pick up 2-4" of cement, a 3 hour window of SN on Christmas eve isn't a bad way to do it. Legit TROWAL signature across the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Thundersnow's favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ^looks faster than the NAM. 9z SREF plumes mean at 4" for ORD but a variety of 1-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ^looks faster than the NAM. 9z SREF plumes mean at 4" for ORD but a variety of 1-12" jumped from previous run, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 jumped from previous run, no? You get buried on the 4km NAM. Some spots of 3/4" to 1" QPF in 6 hrs over heart of metro between 15-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You get buried on the 4km NAM. Some spots of 3/4" to 1" QPF in 6 hrs over heart of metro between 15-21z. I saw, it is a beautiful defo band that peaks right over the meat of the CWA. This is going to be a really photogenic cement storm for someone in your CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS and NAM now give the NW side of the lower peninsula snow now... Thank you santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I saw, it is a beautiful defo band that peaks right over the meat of the CWA. This is going to be a really photogenic cement storm for someone in your CWA. Some eye popping numbers from the 12z NAM Cobb. Overdone but fun to look at. 12 km NAM Cobb output is 16" for DPA, 9" for ORD, 6" for MDW and 7" for CGX. 4km Cobb for ORD is 15", 13.5" for DPA, 9" for MDW and 9" for CGX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS and NAM now give the NW side of the lower peninsula snow now... Thank you santa. Merry X-Mass to all and to all lots of snow (Maybe ) Although GFS still is west of the NAM track, curious to what Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes/no on blizzard warnings with this system? Have to think if a solution like the above 4km-NAM pans out that there's a chance since the system will have wound up enough by the time it reaches that far north to have some strong surface winds accompany the heavy snow. Flakes being so heavy and water logged would probably minimize the effect of any blowing snow. Thinking blanket WSWs will be issued and maybe a few counties upgraded at the last minute given the remaining uncertainty on where heaviest snow sets up. Those that get upgraded would likely be the the NW MI crew. For those farther south I don't think the system will have tightened up enough yet to meet the wind/visibility criteria despite some of the big QPF numbers coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Merry X-Mass to all and to all lots of snow (Maybe ) Although GFS still is west of the NAM track, curious to what Euro has to say. check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 anyone notice that the low pressure in eastern Texas is already down to 999mb? pretty sure that is already stronger than what models depicted at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Some eye popping numbers from the 12z NAM Cobb. Overdone but fun to look at. 12 km NAM Cobb output is 16" for DPA, 9" for ORD, 6" for MDW and 7" for CGX. 4km Cobb for ORD is 15", 13.5" for DPA, 9" for MDW and 9" for CGX. Could you post the link? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Could you post the link? Thanks Here is a clown map, not sure what the actual equivalent would be to snowfall and ratios, a lot of this may fall as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z weenie hi-res going to be more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z weenie hi-res going to be more progressive Did I miss the GFS? No real commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Did I miss the GFS? No real commentary. it was meh, warmish and not overly dynamic but not wildly out of line with general guidance. i suspect intense convection is going to make model handling of the gulf coast state low difficult (to be clear i'm not talking about that tired moisture transport meme), not to mention the energy will soon be rounding the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 anyone notice that the low pressure in eastern Texas is already down to 999mb? pretty sure that is already stronger than what models depicted at this time It's already in E Texas? I heard the RAP is stronger/west of other guidance, maybe it can lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's already in E Texas? I heard the RAP is stronger/west of other guidance, maybe it can lead the way. I was mistaken. the low I think is around 1002mb now. it was stronger earlier. it is forecasted to ramp up again as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough and goes more neg tilt. and yea I seen that. rap def looks more west of guidance. it runs a north to south baroclinic zone around or just east of the IL/IN border. def something to watch closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's already in E Texas? I heard the RAP is stronger/west of other guidance, maybe it can lead the way. there really isn't a well defined southern surface low yet, it's more of weak & broad elongated area a hundred miles offshore or so of Beaumont, TX with a cold front stretching NNE from the LA/MS border north of Baton Rouge. I suspect we see the low take shape in south or southwest MS. o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What? This is not the case.. Yes I know. I corrected myself. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 there really isn't a well defined southern surface low yet, it's more of weak & broad elongated area a hundred miles offshore or so of Beaumont, TX with a cold front stretching NNE from the LA/MS border north of Baton Rouge. I suspect we see the low take shape in south or southwest MS. o Your RFD to OSH call that you pounded your chest over is in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 there really isn't a well defined southern surface low yet, it's more of weak & broad elongated area a hundred miles offshore or so of Beaumont, TX with a cold front stretching NNE from the LA/MS border north of Baton Rouge. I suspect we see the low take shape in south or southwest MS. o you summed it up well. nothing really has got its act together yet. just a waiting game now on that jet streak to round the base and get the show going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.