Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro certainly going to add to the drama for the overnight shift. Yep it went east. Pretty much a swing and miss for the LOT CWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro certainly going to add to the drama for the overnight shift. A lot of people on other forums (of course, this is the most educated forum) are pointing out that the hi-res models are the ones taking the further north and west tracks, while the long range models are slow to the party, but given the GEM, UKIE and the Euro are in an easterly camp relatively speaking, can't count out a last minute east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yep it went east. Pretty much a swing and miss for the LOT CWA.. I know it scores the best but I'd be inclined to call it a blip run given what almost everything else looks like tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I know it scores the best but I'd be inclined to call it a blip run given what almost everything else looks like tonight. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z NAM Bufkit data for DPA...some of the highest omega values (in red contour) I've seen around here since GHD. Also included the DGZ and elevated CAPE in yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 A lot of people on other forums (of course, this is the most educated forum) are pointing out that the hi-res models are the ones taking the further north and west tracks, while the long range models are slow to the party, but given the GEM, UKIE and the Euro are in an easterly camp relatively speaking, can't count out a last minute east trend. Only speaking for myself but I give more credence to the hi-res stuff once we're within 24-36 hours. Been burned in the past when disregarding those in light of the lower res models. We'll be more into that window on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Only speaking for myself but I give more credence to the hi-res stuff once we're within 24-36 hours. Been burned in the past when disregarding those in light of the lower res models. We'll be more into that window on the 12z runs. Yep, I agree with that. Therefore, I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEMs, WRF NMMs and ARWs when they are in the 36-48 hr range from the storm in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually wouldn't be overly surprised if those (including me at times) who congratulated the GFS and scoffed at the Euro and NAM were slapped in the face by a freak last minute east/weakening shift. I have to say if that does happen this might end up being the most hilarious storm to have tracked in hindsight, so frustrating yet comedically so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually wouldn't be overly surprised if those (including me at times) who congratulated the GFS and scoffed at the Euro and NAM were slapped in the face by a freak last minute east/weakening shift. I have to say if that does happen this might end up being the most hilarious storm to have tracked in hindsight, so frustrating yet comedically so. Always playing the pessimistic card. Storm after storm. Winter after winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually wouldn't be overly surprised if those (including me at times) who congratulated the GFS and scoffed at the Euro and NAM were slapped in the face by a freak last minute east/weakening shift. I have to say if that does happen this might end up being the most hilarious storm to have tracked in hindsight, so frustrating yet comedically so. I don't think the paths are that different on the models. When comparing the maps, the thing that makes the biggest difference is the angle. It is a question of whether the deformation zone heads in a south to north direction (favoring Rockford up through Illinois), or a SW to NE direction (favoring Chicagoland and Western Michigan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually wouldn't be overly surprised if those (including me at times) who congratulated the GFS and scoffed at the Euro and NAM were slapped in the face by a freak last minute east/weakening shift. I have to say if that does happen this might end up being the most hilarious storm to have tracked in hindsight, so frustrating yet comedically so. Can't rule out an east shift but it would be pretty stunning if it whiffs Chicago to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah I don't see NE IL or eastern WI missing this one. The time has come and gone for big shifts in track. I think 75 miles is about the limit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah I don't see NE IL or eastern WI missing this one. The time has come and gone for big shifts in track. I think 75 miles is about the limit at this point. So you're thinking that Western Michigan will miss out on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Continues to lose the left turners...pretty solid agreement between SBN-FWA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Continues to lose the left turners...pretty solid agreement between SBN-FWA area. track0.png If you're in contact with Gino, ask him what he thinks about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 If you're in contact with Gino, ask him what he thinks about the Euro. And what his tingle level is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Alek's favs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'm no expert, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt (and please correct me if needed). Looking over 0z model guidance and comparing to 6z observations, I found that the 0z NAM and 0z NAM hi-res are forecasting this trough too strong, by an eyeball comparison of 500mb abs. vorticity maps. The best model I could find that matched up with current OBS (in terms of the vort maps) was the 3z RAP. On a side note, the RUC hasn't updated in 11 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Canadian regional ensembles go east as well. CMC-REPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Now this is just laughable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just glancing at sfc obs along the Rio Grande in TX and in that area. Lots of 1002mb obs and a few even of 1000mb. If anything the NAM/RAP are doing okay and the GFS is slightly too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 4z HRRR has the surface low at 998 mb in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Now this is just laughable... Took a quick glance at that earlier. Strong wind fields but questions about instability as usual at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gonna lose the ability to monitor the surface low location/strength via land based sites for a while. Anybody have any good links to buoy data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So you're thinking that Western Michigan will miss out on this? Not necessarily. But you need the deformation band to be orientated more SW to NE as opposed to more N to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z NAM Bufkit data for DPA...some of the highest omega values (in red contour) I've seen around here since GHD. Also included the DGZ and elevated CAPE in yellow bufkit.png If that sort of omega does in fact occur in the DGZ wherever the deform sets up, that would suggest warning criteria snows...outstanding cross-hair signature for almost 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Took a quick glance at that earlier. Strong wind fields but questions about instability as usual at this time of year. A couple hundred J/kg will be enough to bring some winds down to the surface especially in the frontally forced rain band. Edit: both NAMs and the Euro show this actually happening too, 4km NAM/12km NAM have 300-600 J/kg while the Euro is 200-500 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 3z SREF mean snowfall keeps the trend going of pushing the snow swath further east which is not all that surprising. The 15z mean swath was from northern MO to about Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ILX/LOT waiting till afternoon for any WWA or WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Excited to see if the euro pulls this out, it would be a great comeback. Starting to see some western outliers blink but these things love to pull west last minute. Fun track for an at best 4-6 event. Final call of 1.5" imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.