A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You just couldn't help yourself lol Haha he said it I'm sure I'll be buried as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You just couldn't help yourself lol lol Haha he said it I'm sure I'll be buried as usual lol ... pretty solid call as usual alek...whether rooted in pessimism or realism...pretty spot on I know it means quite little given this particular setup....but there will also be a healthy fresh snowpack laid out to the NW ... again, not of the utmost importance, but certainly isn't going to hurt matters when it comes to the CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Skilling going with the phrase "several inches possible". RPM looked like the last GFS run. Had it snowing in Chicagoland by 9:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS thru 60 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2014122300&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=26 and para gfs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_asnow_us_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS shifted northwest a good 50 miles or so. 850s are now marginal at best for Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Little bit NW, but still not unreasonable. RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS shifted northwest a good 50 miles or so. 850s are now marginal at best for Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Huh? I think he meant the GFS Para? Wasn't much of a shift at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Huh? Yea...look where the center of low pressure went! NW Ohio to SW Michigan. 12z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141222+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area 00z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141223+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think he meant the GFS Para? Wasn't much of a shift at all. Yeah. PGFS shifted the best snow accumulations a little NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do you know what that blue line means? Do you know where Chicago is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think he meant the GFS Para? Wasn't much of a shift at all. I'm comparing 12z and 00z, which could be where the confusion is coming from. Sorry if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do you know what that blue line means? Do you know where Chicago is? Cmon buddy, I'm not trying to pick a fight. Just noting the shift in the center of low pressure. It is there. 12z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like the 850 mb line is tucked around the low a bit more tight this run. PGFS brought the 2" line to the east farther this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do you know what that blue line means? Do you know where Chicago is? Those maps show QPF meaning what already fell with a snapshot of the 850mb temps. That is a common misconception that people see QPF behind 0 at 850mb and think it automatically means it snowed in the previous time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Still don't know if I trust the NAM. By 18z Wed, there's a good 250 mile north/south difference in surface low position between the NAM and GFS. RGEM seems to be a compromise of sorts in terms of speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think Hoosier mentioned the RGEM but didn't see any maps...so here they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Those maps show QPF meaning what already fell with a snapshot of the 850mb temps. That is a common misconception that people see QPF behind 0 at 850mb and think it automatically means it snowed in the previous time period. Yeah, with the temp lines it's their position at the end of said 6hr or 12hr period, while the QPF is the total within that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldn't complain if that RGEM run verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldn't complain if that RGEM run verified. Neither would I, perhaps best case scenario for both Chicago and Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Think Hoosier mentioned the RGEM but didn't see any maps...so here they are rgem_precip_mslp_mw_15.png rgem_snow_acc_mw_17.png Looks like a 12"(?) lollipop just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldn't complain if that RGEM run verified. Ugh, the traffic if it did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And that assumes a 10:1? Looks like it will be wetter than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ugh, the traffic if it did... Eh, beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quite the difference in placement of the snow band between the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Blend them together and it would be perfect for me... Don't have much confidence in any of the models right now. This time tomorrow should clear things up. Wouldn't be suprised for a large number of Watches to be posted and then moved/canceled throughout the day as the track finalizes. Quite the difference in placement of the snow band between the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. snow48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Quite the difference in placement of the snow band between the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. snow48.gif Yep was just going to post about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro looks a tad faster and just south of Louisville at 36hr at 996mb. Not as much cold sector QPF as the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z Euro has the surface low roughly between Jackson and Ann Arbor MI at 00z Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro certainly going to add to the drama for the overnight shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.