Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS looks a little west too. 0-8" spread from MDW-RFD while the op GFS has the swath in about the same area, just a little less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 EURO control run favors the exact areas the GFS hits hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good stuff extremewx52. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18Z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18Z 4km NAM Would suck for the Chicago contingent, but I'm rooting hard for the Hawkeye/Cyclone drought to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 With all the talk about model performance, I decided to take a look at the GFS, GFS-Para, GEM, and ECMWF 12Z and 00Z runs for the past 5 days. I plotted the location of the low at the approximate time when it crossed I-80 to best analyze its track accuracy and intensity and ignoring any temporal differences. Here are the results. GFS has a decent cluster between MI/IN/OH border and Cleveland and then 3 model runs which are not clustered. GFS Parallel has had the worst consistency among them all. If the further west track does verify though, it had the most runs which picked up on this trend. GEM The GEM is remarkably consistent with location between South Bend and Toledo Ohio. The intensity is quite variable though with a minimum of 974 and a max of 1004. ECMWF also had a pretty good cluster like the GFS, but then had 3 runs which were way off and east. I will be curious to compare these maps to the final track to get an idea for which model performed the best. If we don't get a westward trend, then the GEM looks like the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good stuff extremewx52. Thanks. Had to resend the post with the pictures oriented correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Great plotting work Extremewx52! PGFS. We still have tomorrow's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS and GFSP all lightened up the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This thing is already tapping a subtropical moisture stream. This should result in a wetter storm. We will just have to see how much of that moisture makes it into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Skilling just posted his futurecast that very closely resembled the GFS parallel. Jackpot out by RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This Snow Weenie from Tulsa will be in extreme SE Iowa for Christmas Eve/Day with the wife's family. I need >1" to happen there. That's all I ask. The models are driving me nuts. Giving hope and taking away. Models are bullies. I'm not even familiar with snow trends in your parts (although it probably wouldn't even matter to know given the absurdity of modeling with this system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 IND discounting a Hoosier fantasy. But the last sentence still gives us some weenie hope "THE NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND PRODUCES TOO MUCH SNOW AS ITTAKES THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER EAST AND HAS DEVELOPS MORE OF A CLOSEDUPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUFKIT GIVES ASMUCH AS 9 INCHES OF SNOW IN LAFAYETTE WHICH IS WAY TOO MUCH. THENAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ISSUES AND WILL DISCARD. WILLGO MORE OF GFS EUROPEAN BLEND WHICH TAKES THE SURFACE LOW NEAR ORSLIGHTLY JUST EAST OF INDY AND IS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITHSNOWFALL." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 more upstream with the initial northern wave then the main system we are tracking, but some nice obs out of URN.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD443 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014 0347 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W12/22/2014 M61 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD325 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014 0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W12/22/2014 M63 MPH MEADE SD OTHER FEDERAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD443 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014 0400 PM HIGH SUST WINDS RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W12/22/2014 M46 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This will be cool to look at when it gets in range. Can just start to see a changeover toward the end of the run. Some of the simulated reflectivity products have been showing convective type elements. Was checking into thundersnow potential and it doesn't look overwhelmingly favorable but maybe a met can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This will be cool to look at when it gets in range. Can just start to see a changeover toward the end of the run. wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Some of the simulated reflectivity products have been showing convective type elements. Was checking into thundersnow potential and it doesn't look overwhelmingly favorable but maybe a met can chime in. Cannot completely rule it out. Pretty significant EPV above the best Fgen and Omega from KVPZ to KRFD on the GFS. Best time frame looks around 12Z. Edit: Would agree that it doesn't look overwhelmingly favorable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Last 3 runs of the GFS with all the ensemble member tracks. 18z lost some of the left turners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This thing is already tapping a subtropical moisture stream. This should result in a wetter storm. We will just have to see how much of that moisture makes it into the cold air. Gates are opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cannot completely rule it out. Pretty significant EPV above the best Fgen and Omega from KVPZ to KRFD on the GFS. Best time frame looks around 12Z. Edit: Would agree that it doesn't look overwhelmingly favorable though. Agree with this from what I looked at today. Nice combination of -EPV above impressive fgen in the deformation axis. Also the midlevel lapse rates are pretty steep, so can't rule out some minor upright instability. The GFS soundings for Chicago are indicating small cape values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This will be cool to look at when it gets in range. Can just start to see a changeover toward the end of the run. wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Some of the simulated reflectivity products have been showing convective type elements. Was checking into thundersnow potential and it doesn't look overwhelmingly favorable but maybe a met can chime in. ILX mentioned possible Convective elements with this system... it was mentioned in the latest AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 SLP in SE New Mexico down to 998 ... 3 or 4 millibars stronger than guidance pegged for 01Z 23DEC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 00Z NAM compared to 18Z NAM.... keeping the northern stream system a little stronger longer...drags the 850 freezing line a little further east in the Northern IL area at least.... southern SLP looking stronger also through 05Z 24DEC .... much wetter on the cold side as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Looks like the NAM might finally cave. Digging the srn wave further south across TX through 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 00Z NAM compared to 18Z NAM.... keeping the northern stream system a little stronger longer...drags the 850 freezing line a little further east in the Northern IL area at least.... southern SLP looking stronger also through 05Z 24DEC .... much wetter on the cold side as well I think this will be the run that finally makes a move toward the others. Maybe not all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Surface low still in TN at 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Congrats to the IL/WI peeps. Atleast somebody nearby will be getting some snow and not i-95.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Surface low still in TN at 12z Wed. Should be a good run for someone along/west I-57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Through 30hr, the 4km NAM looks like it might come back SE some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 990 mb near IND at 21z Wed on the 12 km NAM. Looks like dual lows at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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