RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 and this SWS for central IL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL218 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-231000-KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE218 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014...CHRISTMAS EVE SNOW...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATETUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN ANDSNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TOSUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN...BUT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT GRADUALLY ARRIVESFROM THE WEST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ONWEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE EAST OF I-55...WITH LESS THAN1 INCH FURTHER WEST INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.FOR THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY...PLEASE BE AWARE OFTHE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. CONSIDERABLEUNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIESTPRECIPITATION AXIS AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TOSNOW...SO KEEP ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Glad I'm not LOT right now. Still some time to hone in on the details...hopefully by tomorrow. MKX has it just as bad, anything from a graze job to heavy wet snow to rain and dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Talk about a dream scenario for this area. Wow. Wallpaper material right there. Such a tease. EDIT: Speaking of plastered, if a scenario like this misses just east again I'll probably be getting plastered Wednesday night lol. Dream scenario, especially when considering it would end your sub 6" storm drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Does anyone think the west trend is done or just starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Does anyone think the west trend is done or just starting Everything keeps inching west, especially the hi-res guidance but also the GEFS/Euro means...op NAM is lagging but is getting there slowly but surely. IMO the upper levels continue to scream rapid deepening and left turn which is probably why the hi-res guidance is so gonzo. This isn't going to cut over Madison or anything but i still like a track to extreme NW Indiana with a RFD to Moneyman jackpot, although i'm starting to feel like that may be too far southwest gonna ride it just because i made the call when everyone was congratulating Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Glad I'm not LOT right now. Still some time to hone in on the details...hopefully by tomorrow. they have 24 hours to sit on it. suspect i'll be under a WWA by tomorrow evening with a little help from the holiday timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Dream scenario, especially when considering it would end your sub 6" storm drought! hires_snow_acc_mw_18.png Wow, that IS dreamy... Meanwhile, snow chances for NWO be like: Westward trends appear to be prevailing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Everything keeps inching west, especially the hi-res guidance but also the GEFS/Euro means...op NAM is lagging but is getting there slowly but surely. IMO the upper levels continue to scream rapid deepening and left turn which is probably why the hi-res guidance is so gonzo. This isn't going to cut over Madison or anything but i still like a track to extreme NW Indiana with a RFD to Moneyman jackpot, although i'm starting to feel like that may be too far southwest gonna ride it just because i made the call when everyone was congratulating Detroit You called wagons west first for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z RGEM 995 mb on the MS/TN border at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Liking what I'm seeing at this point for LSX. We're walking a fine line - requiring enough sampling of the gulf to provide ample moisture yet need it to continue the westward track to enjoy the deformation zone since we won't be slotted. Keeping the fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM looks like it's going to be amped/west camp again based on the vertical velocity charts at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 In case you wanted to see the rest of the run, Bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM looks like it's going to be amped/west camp again based on the vertical velocity charts at 48 hours. i thought the 995 on the MS/TN border was the giveaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 For whatever it's worth, 12z CMC-REPS tracking chart. Generally going east of the global model, though a handful of members side with the CMC. Compare with the GEPS, which favors the west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 i thought the 995 on the MS/TN border was the giveaway 986 mb near Kankakee at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 In case you wanted to see the rest of the run, Bo. hires_snow_acc_michigan_20.png thx geos.... one more shift and i'm gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 986 mb near Kankakee at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12Z ECMWF for the LSX folks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 SWS issued by Izzi. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-230200-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 /418 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/...SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONWEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDINGTHE EXACT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE...WHICH COULD MEAN THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION...RAIN...OR RAINCHANGING TO WET SNOW. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THISPOINT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO A PERIOD OFHEAVY WET ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.FOR THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY...PLEASE BE AWARETHAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PLEASE KEEPABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORMSYSTEM FOR UPDATES.$IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOT 318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 /418 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/...SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONWEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDINGTHE EXACT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE...WHICH COULD MEAN THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION...RAIN...OR RAINCHANGING TO WET SNOW. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THISPOINT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO A PERIOD OFHEAVY WET ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Iowa getting back in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's gonna be close here... but I think I'm sitting pretty good as it stands. Need a balance of the hires NAM and the global guidance. Would be a nice final storm before moving to the tropics of Indiana before the new year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 986 mb near Kankakee at 48 hours. Too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's gonna be close here... but I think I'm sitting pretty good as it stands. Need a balance of the hires NAM and the global guidance. Would be a nice final storm before moving to the tropics of Indiana before the new year... Don't forget the sunscreen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 thx geos.... one more shift and i'm gold. says the guy already expected to get 6" tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Iowa getting back in the game....Most of those are unrealistically far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z op GFS looking like it should stay consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm working winter weather desk tomorrow at LOT. Should be a fun day. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Most of those are unrealistically far west. Majority of SREF members look really far west as well. Multiple taking the low west of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 18z op GFS looking like it should stay consistent Looks like it sped up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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