Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 As far as how much of this will stick in the areas that get snow, I think back on 11/29/2011 here. Had a high of 58 on the 27th and a lot of rain right before the snow. Had to rely on dynamic cooling but it changed to snow and we managed a few inches here with temps in the 33-34 range through the event. Heaviest band of snow fell in N IN and into MI where they had 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Euro definitely had it's ass handed to it by the GFS(s) with this storm. Gonna be interesting to see who wins the model battle by the end of the winter. Ludicrous statement. It was a complete NWP disaster across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe a downstream benchmark of sorts to keep an eye on as this gets going is whether the surface low solidly gets into the Gulf. If it does then it may make the far western tracks harder to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 As far as how much of this will stick in the areas that get snow, I think back on 11/29/2011 here. Had a high of 58 on the 27th and a lot of rain right before the snow. Had to rely on dynamic cooling but it changed to snow and we managed a few inches here with temps in the 33-34 range through the event. Heaviest band of snow fell in N IN and into MI where they had 6+. just my experience but when thermals get sketchy, it's all about rate, getting into a heavy band right after changeover is key to build a base for accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Maybe a downstream benchmark of sorts to keep an eye on as this gets going is whether the surface low solidly gets into the Gulf. If it does then it may make the far western tracks harder to come by. +1 To me that's the most significant piece. The deepening will occur, but the track will ultimately determine how deep and E/W shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Ludicrous statement. It was a complete NWP disaster across the board. Obviously guidance was all over the board, but the GFS/PGFS caught on and have had the more western track for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 just my experience but when thermals get sketchy, it's all about rate, getting into a heavy band right after changeover is key to build a base for accumulation I'll add my 2 cents: yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Obviously guidance was all over the board, but the GFS/PGFS caught on and have had the more western track for several runs now. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wow I didn't think my last post would ire the great chi storm I love your insight, and wish you would post more actually. I just think the Euro has been more consistent on it's track from around toledo up lake huron. not that it's latest track is good for MBY it shows the main band of snow in western mi. I am well aware of the rgem/pgfs/hires nam being on the far western solutions right now. all I can say is the model spread is really wide still being only 54hrs or so out. I've cut back as time has gone on. Really depends on what's going on for if I post much. It was consistent on that track until this run, when it jumped to the western (and now main) camp. Nice consensus for a track up through C. Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 My gut feeling is the 12km NAM adjusts northwestward and matches the Euro/GFS/etc in coming runs, while the 4km NAM/RGEM squeeze southeast. 2-5" swath along a line that I mentioned a few posts above is my first shot. A little gunshy about placement but I like that range for now. I'd be surprised if it's less than that but wouldn't be surprised if there's a heavier band somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z ECMWF ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 gotta imagine the NAM going to take another step towards consensus guidance here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 gotta imagine the NAM going to take another step towards consensus guidance here... Seems like it's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Seems like it's trying. yep, it's not going to be huge but it continues the trend in the right direction 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 gotta imagine the NAM going to take another step towards consensus guidance here... Nope. Still east, and now faster/weaker/strung out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah back to garage. Gosh what a bad model. Maybe it will get it right inside 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 18z 4km NAM however looks like it will be on the amped/western side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Early on in the run looked like it was going to make a move but then it all went to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 18z 4km NAM however looks like it will be on the amped/western side of guidance. Definitely. Showing central MO getting plastered at 39 hours. Starts to snow by Cyclone and Hawkeye at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 WPC is leaning toward the slower solutions given the strength of the digging jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 18z 4km NAM however looks like it will be on the amped/western side of guidance. Indeed. SLP in far E. IL, SW of Terre Haute at 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 WPC is leaning toward the slower solutions given the strength of the digging jet. Seems right. These 4km NAM runs have been on the faster side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Man that's quite a spread between the 12 km NAM and 4 km NAM this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Indeed. SLP in far E. IL, SW of Terre Haute at 42hrs. 988mb between IKK and LAF at 45hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Surface low near Waukegan on the 4 km NAM at 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 988mb between IKK and LAF at 45hr Likely passes over ORD, as it's just offshore from the IL/WI border at 51hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cyclone gets plastered with the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cyclone gets plastered with the 4km NAM. hires_ref_mw_46.png hires_ref_mw_49.png Talk about a dream scenario for this area. Wow. Wallpaper material right there. Such a tease. EDIT: Speaking of plastered, if a scenario like this misses just east again I'll probably be getting plastered Wednesday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Glad I'm not LOT right now. Still some time to hone in on the details...hopefully by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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