Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 987mb over SBN at 0z Wed evening 981mb NE of Saginaw at 6z Thursday. SBN? That's actually a pretty big jump in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nice to see the euro get on board with the big picture, probably no coincidence that this better agreement is coming after better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 My gut feeling is the 12km NAM adjusts northwestward and matches the Euro/GFS/etc in coming runs, while the 4km NAM/RGEM squeeze southeast. 2-5" swath along a line that I mentioned a few posts above is my first shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 SBN? That's actually a pretty big jump in that case. Actually more splitting SBN and FWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nice to see the euro get on board with the big picture, probably no coincidence that this better agreement is coming after better sampling When it comes to these super wavy set ups....sampling is king...i agree alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Any idea when this will be rolling through Stl area and what time it's supposed to be over with? Driving to Columbia, MO Xmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually more splitting SBN and FWA Sounds like a compromise track between the hi-res stuff and other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just for a little bit more perspective: The layer of warm air is quite shallow. We can see that at the onset of precipitation, 900mb is even just below freezing. At the heaviest precipitation, the 925mb layer is hovering right around freezing. This is MDW text soundings: http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KMDW.txt My concern is primarily with the strength of the cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere. You have to go all the way up to the 600mb layer to get temperatures around -10. Even 700mb is only hovering between -4 and -7. Snow growth is going to be poor, and even though precipitation may be hard enough to overcome marginal BL temps, I doubt much of this slop will accumulate-- especially in urban areas and if this occurs during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'll take what the EURO is showing. I'm sure the NAM will make a big jump NW soon. It is good at doing that in only 1 or 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looking at moisture/omega and implications from model qpf, think there could be a period of 1-2" per hour type rates in the heart of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ecmwf_tsnow_michigan_13.pngcan you post the map south of that...I would but it's not coming up thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z GEFS with another jump NW, mean now with a 992 just north of LAF vs 996 over Indy on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'll take what the EURO is showing. I'm sure the NAM will make a big jump NW soon. It is good at doing that in only 1 or 2 runs. Yep, the new upgraded NAM is always the last on board to figure out the storm track, long gone are it's days of being the most amped up nw trend sniffing model, the 4km hires versions is probably closer to reality and what the old NAM would say but too amped up and NW. I'm riding the Euro on this, it's been all over the map but more consistent than the other models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Given its track, seems a little strange the Euro snow band isn't farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bufkit being screwy so this is the 6z GFS for DPA, really impressive omega signal and DGZ plotted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can someone post the link to that NCEP ensemble perturbation track forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm riding the Euro on this, it's been all over the map but more consistent than the other models so far. So consistently too far east and wrong, where the GFS/PGFS have been farther west for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ecmwf_tsnow_michigan_13.png Thanks for posting that, I am a little curious as to the amount must be including Lake Enhancement as I just don't see that amount with the lack of cold air and how fast this system is moving off to the North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Euro definitely had it's ass handed to it by the GFS(s) with this storm. Gonna be interesting to see who wins the model battle by the end of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Euro definitely had it's ass handed to it by the GFS(s) with this storm. Gonna be interesting to see who wins the model battle by the end of the winter. started out this way last winter and rolls flipped pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Can someone post the link to that NCEP ensemble perturbation track forecast?Here's the old version of the website. The graphics are not visually stunning, but they update quick.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bufkit being screwy so this is the 6z GFS for DPA, really impressive omega signal and DGZ plotted as well. bufkit.png Looks like some great lift but somewhat shallow DGZ. Gonna be low ratio snows but it's been that way from the beginning. Should be a good paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So consistently too far east and wrong, where the GFS/PGFS have been farther west for several runs now. Wow I didn't think my last post would ire the great chi storm I love your insight, and wish you would post more actually. I just think the Euro has been more consistent on it's track from around toledo up lake huron. not that it's latest track is good for MBY it shows the main band of snow in western mi. I am well aware of the rgem/pgfs/hires nam being on the far western solutions right now. all I can say is the model spread is really wide still being only 54hrs or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wow I didn't think my last post would ire the great chi storm I love your insight, and wish you would post more actually. I just think the Euro has been more consistent on it's track from around toledo up lake huron. not that it's latest track is good for MBY it shows the main band of snow in western mi. I am well aware of the rgem/pgfs/hires nam being on the far western solutions right now. all I can say is the model spread is really wide still being only 54hrs or so out. don't poke the bear and model spread really isn't that wide, consensus on cutting the low towards northern indiana is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Do you have the link to the snow map? That way I can bookmark it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2014122212&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=414 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 don't poke the bear and model spread really isn't that wide, consensus on cutting the low towards northern indiana is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 track.aeperts.2014122212.east_coast.single.png nicely illustrated, in fact even a few more western members than i imagined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 nicely illustrated, in fact even a few more western members than i imagined Yeah a solid consensus between Evansville-Lexington but like you said, several left turning NNW moving members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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