*IndyMeso* Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 And IND cancels the Winter Weather Advisory for the remaining four counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Super frustrating system to try to forecast. Model handling in terms of details has been pretty bad with some worse than others. EC/UKMET maintained more of an eastward track over the past few days but it seems like all models were too quick to deepen the surface/upper low in their prior runs, which makes all the difference in a setup like this when you're reliant on dynamic cooling. Hence, the area affected is smaller than what it would've been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 this was probably the biggest fu ever to ORD snow lovers. Alek's bad karma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 RC from LOT mentioned the extensive convection possibly playing a role in the weaker/farther east outcome. This is tough to figure out either way until very close in as the opposite can happen and result in a more rapidly deepening system. I feel bad for the mets on this one. At some point you have to make a call in terms of watches, etc. even if confidence isn't as high as you'd like. That's what they are for. Throw in that it's a holiday and people would've been ticked off had it gone the other way and there had been accumulating snow with little/no heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 this is what we tracked for 8 days.....sometimes you just have to laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 RC from LOT mentioned the extensive convection possibly playing a role in the weaker/farther east outcome. This is tough to figure out either way until very close in as the opposite can happen and result in a more rapidly deepening system. I feel bad for the mets on this one. At some point you have to make a call in terms of watches, etc. even if confidence isn't as high as you'd like. That's what they are for. Throw in that it's a holiday and people would've been ticked off had it gone the other way and there had been accumulating snow with little/no heads up. I am very glad all I ever really expected was rain and wind (heck even the wind is going to be a minor event). I am all to used to convection causing undesired outcomes. Happens frequently around here. Overall this was one of the more difficult systems to forecast I have seen in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 this is what we tracked for 8 days.....sometimes you just have to laugh Sadly if you go back to the Long Range thread we have been tracking it for over 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I think the NAM is sniffing out the real storm pattern. /hope. NAM wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big Rapids is reporting light snow now, 12z 4km nam shows the changeover getting going better around 18-19z so maybe it has a clue. a few blips of blue showing in north and west michigan on the intellicast radar which i find is pretty accurate Someone gets 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 NAM wins. Eh, it sent the surface low toward Washington DC early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Eh, it sent the surface low toward Washington DC early on. Early on it was out to lunch, then in a matter of a single run, it shifted the storm to its current track and never looked back... Even while the GFS was heading west in it's wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 12z NAM from yesterday. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Some mangled wet flakes in Lake county IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Someone gets 8+. 17z RAP shows Alpena getting 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Could be something, could be nothing... And even if it is something, could be a non-event for most.Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 17z RAP shows Alpena getting 6 This could be Alpena's winter! They've been missed the past couple years about as much as Iowa. A nice lake effect event earlier on in the winter, and perhaps a nice event here. If I don't get any snow, I'm rooting for Alpena! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Heaviest returns just moved overhead here at radar site KIWX and best we were able to muster were a few large flakes. Maybe 3 hours of returns like that and we could have turned all the way over, but now the back of the precip is on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The GEM did a respectable job modelling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 DTX finally put up a WWA. Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI325 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014...QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING...MIZ047>049-053-054-060-061-250500-/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0013.141225T0100Z-141225T0500Z/MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...SAGINAW...CARO...OWOSSO...FLINT325 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TOMIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PMTHIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LOCALLY HEAVY WET SNOW AFTER 8 PM * 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE IN 3 HOURS OR LESS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR HEAVY SNOW IS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 And GRR just removed the lakeshore counties from it's WWA and filled in a couple counties that looked stupid with no advisory next to the DTX one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm going bold with an inch of snow here tonight. Temps at 40 now and dropping ever so slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 And GRR just removed the lakeshore counties from it's WWA and filled in a couple counties that looked stupid with no advisory next to the DTX one The GRR NWS forecast discussion was the most depressing discussion for this snow lover. We've had some flake mixing in here and there, but that's it. Sigh. Maybe an inch tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The GRR NWS forecast discussion was the most depressing discussion for this snow lover. We've had some flake mixing in here and there, but that's it. Sigh. Maybe an inch tonight? This storm definitely became the Grinch in the thread title for most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 And GRR just removed the lakeshore counties from it's WWA and filled in a couple counties that looked stupid with no advisory next to the DTX one Looks like DTX filled those two in now. Noticed a few reports of unknown precip east of Grand Rapids in that bright banded area. If there are flakes making it to the ground, I bet they're monsters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 IWX dropped the wind advisories for the eastern portions of the CWA as well. CLE downgraded the high wind warnings to advisories. Meanwhile, note the line extending from cntrl OH to nrn KY. Producing 40-50mph gusts, and has Severe thunderstorm warnings on it near Chillicothe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Just had a legit strike thunder/lightning here. Wonder how many Christmases past have featured that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Just had a legit strike thunder/lightning here. Wonder how many Christmases past have featured that. Had a big thunderstorm Christmas morning here once. Need to remember what year that was, wanna say '05 or '06... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Latest HRRR shows that 35-40dbz blob changing to snow over MBY, could be fun, will have the camera ready incase it rips really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Just had a legit strike thunder/lightning here. Wonder how many Christmases past have featured that. Just had 2 of them myself!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0564.html UNREAL!!! I will be out chasing tonight if necessary, and will hopefully grab myself a Christmas Eve lightning shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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