Chargers09 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anyone know what the euro did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anyone know what the euro did? It tracked from just east of Toledo to just east of Detroit up lake Huron from what I can see on the wunderground maps which is near the perfect track for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro looked pretty meager with snowfall south of the MI/IN border from what I could tell from a quick look. Heavier amounts as you head deeper into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If this one doesn't pan out (doesn't look like it will), looks like much of the area will be headed towards futility records. Medium-long range looks rather dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well that sure makes things more interesting. Check out those 500mb winds as the front passes. Nice momentum transfer as well. YYZ forecast sounding off the 00Z NAM4km. Thanks for posting that. Soundings near Buffalo at 06z December 25 have some of the strongest wind fields throughout the atmosphere I've ever seen. Highly relevant high-wind discussion by BUF office mentions 65mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Thanks for posting that. Soundings near Buffalo at 06z December 25 have some of the strongest wind fields throughout the atmosphere I've ever seen. Highly relevant high-wind discussion by BUF office mentions 65mph winds. 155 kts down to 350 mb. Don't see that a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm riding the Euro on this, it's been all over the map but more consistent than the other models so far. So consistently too far east and wrong, where the GFS/PGFS have been farther west for several runs now. Sorry for this but I just thought it would be funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z NAM goes east a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big bust coming for stl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z 4km NAM snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Big bust coming for stl Yeah, Chris Higgins for Fox2 here had some profound commentary on his message board about it: http://morethanweatherstl.com/post/26386 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z 4km NAM snow map. As I suspected. Less snow across the board with a more eastern track. Suspect, a wound up Des Moines blizzard would have served us all better long term. Fittingly, the thread title nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow! The title 'Grinch' storm was definitely appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 "You're a mean one, Mr Grinch..." I may still hold out hope for a few flakes since an easterly track MAY be prevailing, even though the snow map looks pretty meager. The cold season storm stuff may make things interesting as well. What a mess this whole event has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Sorry for this but I just thought it would be funny... wagons east indeed.From a track perspective you are.golden, type and dynamic cooling are the wild cards. Even if a track was nailed down (lol thats a joke) I would say this storma much higher bust potential than average. You could get an ice cold rain and non sticking slush mess or a heavy plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Lansing to Alpena 3-5"?? Good luck to those in line for a White Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 wagons east indeed. From a track perspective you are.golden, type and dynamic cooling are the wild cards. Even if a track was nailed down (lol thats a joke) I would say this storma much higher bust potential than average. You could get an ice cold rain and non sticking slush mess or a heavy plastering. Yeah I'm kind of worried about the thermals and precip rates being any good, the 12z NAM and 4km NAM just sent the main snow band a bit east of my location even lol, craziest trend I've seen this close in, in a really long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 what a cruel hot mess of a storm we've been tracking for over a week. Thankfully we, (the Ohio crowd), were eliminated in the first round which always makes it a little easier to swallow. I feel bad for the Chicago crowd. Teased with a xmas eve snowfall just to have the rug pulled out at the last minute. Goodluck to whoever is left in the game, (Central MI???). Merry Christmas and here's to a southeast ridge that doesn't get bullied and squashed and an active southern jet.....that's all I want for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LOT appears to have cancelled their WWAs... This leaves a lingering strip in N Central IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 From the IND over night disco making it apparent there's no love lost between the models and the forecasters ATM. Yikes, pretty disgruntled (understandably) .... "MODELS ARE DETERMINED TO MAKE THIS FORECASTDIFFICULT RIGHT DOWN TO THE END WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOMINGCRITICAL IN A INCREASINGLY APPARENT NOWCAST SCENARIO.... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...ISSUED AT 152 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUTTHIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS DIVERGE RAPIDLY. 12Z SUNDAY THEEUROPEAN HAS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOOHIO. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS HAS LITTLE OR NO SIGN OF THATSYSTEM. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEY ALSO HANDLE LOWS THAT WILL AFFECTOUR AREA VERY DIFFERENTLY.LAST WEEK NEITHER OF THE MODELS DID WELL FORECASTING FOR THIS WEEK.GIVEN THAT TRACK RECORD...AND THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEY HAVEFOR THIS FORECAST...THERE CANT BE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I can't find any reports of snow, not even under those heavy returns in western MI. This storm thread definitely has the appropriate name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm pretty confident I might get a technical white Christmas out of the deal, nothing spell binding... Just an inch or so. Probably a random area of northern lower gets 8 inches as the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I can't find any reports of snow, not even under those heavy returns in western MI. This storm thread definitely has the appropriate name! We're getting some snow mixing in, but it's just too warm. I'm biting my tongue, er fingers, from complaints...even though inside I'm #$#$#!@$#@$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Should be no surprise with the amount of warm air we have in place. That the storm was gonna bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 37° and rain in Battle Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I didn't expect anything from this storm, really. At most, I thought we would see 1" maybe 2". Personally, I am glad there is going to be very little in the way of "cement" snow. I was in no mood to shovel that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 There's no doubt in my mind that this storm is going to bust for many, I including myself. It's just TOO warm. This is your typical rain changing to wet snow just before the precipitation ends/moves off to the NE. Maybe a quick inch, but grass will still be peaking through - imby anyway. Places north such as Mount Pleasant, will probably be able to squeeze out a couple more inches of wet snow, due to better dynamic cooling and trowal staying there longer- into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I can't find any reports of snow, not even under those heavy returns in western MI. This storm thread definitely has the appropriate name! Big Rapids is reporting light snow now, 12z 4km nam shows the changeover getting going better around 18-19z so maybe it has a clue. a few blips of blue showing in north and west michigan on the intellicast radar which i find is pretty accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm pretty confident I might get a technical white Christmas out of the deal, nothing spell binding... Just an inch or so. Probably a random area of northern lower gets 8 inches as the jackpot. Starting to remind me exactly like the Halloween set up. It would be nice to get the 1-2" like we did on Halloween so I can technically get a White Christmas but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Champaign has flipped over to light snow. Not very exciting, but it's something. METAR KCMI 241753Z 26012KT 3SM -SN BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC015 02/01 A2958 RMK AO2 RAE45SNB45 SLP020 P0006 60017 T00220011 10039 20022 58015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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