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Christmas Grinch Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Well that sure makes things more interesting. Check out those 500mb winds as the front passes. Nice momentum transfer as well.

 

YYZ forecast sounding off the 00Z NAM4km.

 

 

Thanks for posting that. Soundings near Buffalo at 06z December 25 have some of the strongest wind fields throughout the atmosphere I've ever seen. Highly relevant high-wind discussion by BUF office mentions 65mph winds.

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Thanks for posting that. Soundings near Buffalo at 06z December 25 have some of the strongest wind fields throughout the atmosphere I've ever seen. Highly relevant high-wind discussion by BUF office mentions 65mph winds.

 

 

155 kts down to 350 mb.  Don't see that a lot.

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Sorry for this but I just thought it would be funny...

wagonseast.jpg

fishreel.jpg

wagons east indeed.

From a track perspective you are.golden, type and dynamic cooling are the wild cards. Even if a track was nailed down (lol thats a joke) I would say this storma much higher bust potential than average. You could get an ice cold rain and non sticking slush mess or a heavy plastering.

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wagons east indeed.

From a track perspective you are.golden, type and dynamic cooling are the wild cards. Even if a track was nailed down (lol thats a joke) I would say this storma much higher bust potential than average. You could get an ice cold rain and non sticking slush mess or a heavy plastering.

Yeah I'm kind of worried about the thermals and precip rates being any good, the 12z NAM and 4km NAM just sent the main snow band a bit east of my location even lol, craziest trend I've seen this close in, in a really long time.

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what a cruel hot mess of a storm we've been tracking for over a week.   Thankfully we, (the Ohio crowd), were eliminated in the first round which always makes it a little easier to swallow.    I feel bad for the Chicago crowd.   Teased with a  xmas eve snowfall just to have the rug pulled out at the last minute.

 

Goodluck to whoever is left in the game, (Central MI???).   Merry Christmas and here's to a southeast ridge that doesn't get bullied and squashed and an active southern jet.....that's all I want for Christmas!

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From the IND over night disco making it apparent there's no love lost between the models and the forecasters ATM. Yikes, pretty disgruntled (understandably) .... :cry:

 

"MODELS ARE DETERMINED TO MAKE THIS FORECAST
DIFFICULT RIGHT DOWN TO THE END WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOMING
CRITICAL IN A INCREASINGLY APPARENT NOWCAST SCENARIO....

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS DIVERGE RAPIDLY. 12Z SUNDAY THE
EUROPEAN HAS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
OHIO. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS HAS LITTLE OR NO SIGN OF THAT
SYSTEM. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEY ALSO HANDLE LOWS THAT WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA VERY DIFFERENTLY.

LAST WEEK NEITHER OF THE MODELS DID WELL FORECASTING FOR THIS WEEK.
GIVEN THAT TRACK RECORD...AND THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEY HAVE
FOR THIS FORECAST...THERE CANT BE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IT."

 

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I didn't expect anything from this storm, really.  At most, I thought we would see 1" maybe 2".  Personally, I am glad there is going to be very little in the way of "cement" snow.  I was in no mood to shovel that stuff.

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There's no doubt in my mind that this storm is going to bust for many, I including myself.

It's just TOO warm. This is your typical rain changing to wet snow just before the precipitation ends/moves off to the NE. Maybe a quick inch, but grass will still be peaking through - imby anyway. Places north such as Mount Pleasant, will probably be able to squeeze out a couple more inches of wet snow, due to better dynamic cooling and trowal staying there longer- into the night.

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I can't find any reports of snow, not even under those heavy returns in western MI. This storm thread definitely has the appropriate name!

Big Rapids is reporting light snow now, 12z 4km nam shows the changeover getting going better around 18-19z so maybe it has a clue. a few blips of blue showing in north and west michigan on the intellicast radar which i find is pretty accurate :D

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I'm pretty confident I might get a technical white Christmas out of the deal, nothing spell binding... Just an inch or so.

 

Probably a random area of northern lower gets 8 inches as the jackpot.

Starting to remind me exactly like the Halloween set up.  It would be nice to get the 1-2" like we did on Halloween so I can technically get a White Christmas but not holding my breath.

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