Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Skilling's call is Dusting to 2" for NE IL now.Credit to tom. He was skeptical at 5pm. Worked the meteorology not only the modeling.And this is not to slight anyone cause I'm sure most that followed this pain in the arse don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So much for "wagons west" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Credit to tom. He was skeptical at 5pm. Worked the meteorology not only the modeling. Yep, definitely deserves credit and his call sound like a safe bet at this point. He still stressed there could be snow bursts that could complicate travel. Fwiw the RPM spread snow further west than the 4km and 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anybody have the 0z RGEM snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anybody have the 0z RGEM snow map? Maybe you'll get enough snow for a white Christmas then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So much for "wagons west" Eh. As you pointed out some said 48 hrs ago storm was DOA, and this was premature. And given my experience wagons west is always a safe call...even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I had a funny feeling this storm was going to go this way. It just didn't "feel" like a snow storm for this part of the subforum. I mentioned a few posts back that I was figuring 1"-2" for around here, and that might pan out. I have been reading posts here and looking at models when I could, and I have been waiting for the shift to the east, and the earlier run of the Euro, even though at the time, it was the outlier, I had a feeling it was on to something. The other thing was that caveat that Alek pointed out in that AFD about the convection down near the Gulf Coast, and it's possible effect on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Credit to tom. He was skeptical at 5pm. Worked the meteorology not only the modeling. And this is not to slight anyone cause I'm sure most that followed this pain in the arse don't trust it. Anyone else hear his last moment comment that we could be back in the 50's on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow, seeing these 00Z runs, I'm wondering if West MIchigan is going to be too far west. Can't believe in on day I went from stressing about being too far east to being too far west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 gfs_namer_036_precip_p36.gif nam_namer_036_precip_p36.gif Looking at how the western edge is on the new GFS... a bump back west 20-30 miles would put millions back in the ball game. Blackrock I think you're golden with this storm now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'd be careful with the snow maps as they could be too stingy farther west if the changeover happens faster than the 00z runs suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'd be careful with the snow maps as they could be too stingy farther west if the changeover happens faster than the 00z runs suggest.+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'd be careful with the snow maps as they could be too stingy farther west if the changeover happens faster than the 00z runs suggest. The RGEM says, "What precipitation farther west?" Sharp cutoff over ORD land. EDIT: Maybe you need to be in EASTERN Lake County to get in on the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 +1 I mean, no doubt things have shifted east but the shift seems bigger if you're only looking at those snow maps since they are slower with the flip to snow in your area. FWIW, GFS snow map still showing accumulating snow farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'd be careful with the snow maps as they could be too stingy farther west if the changeover happens faster than the 00z runs suggest. I see what you're saying. So it's not necessarily less precipitation...just a matter of changeover time. Which, as we can tell, the NAM is changing it over much faster than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The RGEM says, "What precipitation farther west?" Sharp cutoff over ORD land. EDIT: Maybe you need to be in EASTERN Lake County to get in on the good stuff. rgem_apcpn_ncus_12.png Look at the snow map posted earlier in the thread It looks awful if you're in IN, etc but that's still a pretty good amount of precip. No way of knowing just how quickly the cooling process occurs but you gotta have precip to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro has always been king. Looks like it wins again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 IWX may need to consider throwing up advisories for their northwest and north central counties since it is a holiday, although it will be chump change to them, being in the lake belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 IWX may need to consider throwing up advisories for their northwest and north central counties since it is a holiday, although it will be chump change to them, being in the lake belt. Wondered about that. Might be wise to do so, or at least issue a SWS, since we seem to be in the middle of a shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 4km NAM Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very interesting cold weather thunderstorm setup unfolding in the Ohio Valley up thru Western NY and S Ontario tomorrow evening. 5% issued by SPC and NWS Buffalo had this to say...... LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DROP THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOWN TOJUST BELOW 0C WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 100J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED JUSTABOVE THE SURFACE. BY SUMMER STANDARDS THIS INSTABILITY ISNEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONTIT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT MAYPRODUCE THUNDER. 500MB WINDS EXCEED 100 KNOTS...WHICH IS AN OLD RULEOF THUMB THRESHOLD FOR A COLD SEASON DERECHO IF A STRONGLY FORCEDENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. IF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ABLE TODEVELOP...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE MID LEVELSMAY SUPPORT A RISK OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.THESE SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SMALL SCALE BOWINGSEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE...IF IT MATERIALIZES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Latest RAP has the deformation band back a bit west... (Not really paying any mind to the precip. types) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very interesting cold weather thunderstorm setup unfolding in the Ohio Valley up thru Western NY and S Ontario tomorrow evening. 5% issued by SPC and NWS Buffalo had this to say...... LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DROP THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 100J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BY SUMMER STANDARDS THIS INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT MAY PRODUCE THUNDER. 500MB WINDS EXCEED 100 KNOTS...WHICH IS AN OLD RULE OF THUMB THRESHOLD FOR A COLD SEASON DERECHO IF A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. IF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE...IF IT MATERIALIZES. Well that sure makes things more interesting. Check out those 500mb winds as the front passes. Nice momentum transfer as well. YYZ forecast sounding off the 00Z NAM4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Noticeable difference in placement of the rain/snow line between the NMM and ARW. ARW is quicker with the changeover and appears to have more intense precip. This is reason for folks like Tim and me (and maybe even Chicago) to not completely bail yet. It's all going to come down to how intense that band of precip is and how soon it can force a changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Testing this feature... Partially out of boredom, partially out of desperation, I created an animation of RAP runs, 22z to 04z, all valid for 08z. Only conclusion(s) you might draw from this is a slowing down in progression of the low, and maybe even a nudge to the west, particularly in the final frame. May have to click on the image to view animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm not writing off the Chicago area yet, and I still think that we will end up with some cement before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Exact location of the back edge of the precip shield still problematic. I noticed that 20 out of 21 of the 21z SREF members produced over a quarter inch of precip at ORD while the 00z Euro looks like it's almost a shutout. I'll be following what happens with that...would be a pretty bad SREF bust this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Anybody have a 0z Euro snow map, big nudge east on it and looks like it nails MBY, or just let me know the snow amount for KMOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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