Stebo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro still slays, huh? Looks that way, western MI gets plastered from GRR north on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 4km NAM track is about the same but stronger. 986mb into NW OH. Less cold air to work with though and precip doesn't even get to Kane co on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 00z 4km NAM puts down a few inches from Indy to Kokomo and it's a good hit across Northern Indiana into Western Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This isn't going to cut over Madison or anything but i still like a track to extreme NW Indiana with a RFD to Moneyman jackpot, although i'm starting to feel like that may be too far southwest gonna ride it just because i made the call when everyone was congratulating Detroit Nailed it. Anyways, this kinda sucks. But good luck to the northern IN and western MI peeps. Hope it pours snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Amazed it's taken until now for a DAB call. Just goes to show the unique evolution of this system. Not sure a DAB call within 12-18 hrs. of an event means much. And I look for Chistorms calls cause there relevant. Winter trend of under performance might be being established. Recall, last Christmas got 2inches of snow when flurries were the call. Those winters must be valued. Other note, computer model forecasting is still somewhat comical. Mother Nature is boss.Also, nam was a joke yesterday. Today it's boss by some. Thinking this puppy might be a dud across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 00z 4km NAM puts down a few inches from Indy to Kokomo and it's a good hit across Northern Indiana into Western Michigan. Yep, showing some love for Indiana. Hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yep, showing some love for Indiana. Hope it happens. Can you please show the west MI Wx Bell map? My sister is traveling tomorrow I would like to show it to her!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 In a lot of ways this is what makes meteorology fun but also incredibly frustrating, especially when being charged with making tough decisions in complex situations with lots of variability and lower confidence. Ultimately had to hope that most of the guidance today had a clue, and had no reason to think otherwise based on observational data. If it ends up being a bust in our area, just gonna have to take my lumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 In a lot of ways this is what makes meteorology fun but also incredibly frustrating, especially when being charged with making tough decisions in complex situations with lots of variability and lower confidence. Ultimately had to hope that most of the guidance today had a clue, and had no reason to think otherwise based on observational data. If it ends up being a bust in our area, just gonna have to take my lumps. With a lot of the recent models changes it makes it even harder I bet. We used to know many of the model biases, tendencies and trends but those are not as well defined since they made these updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow, hard to believe the model that held its own against all others is the one that's about to score. Really instills faith in the Euro, although quite honestly it could have been the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This has been one of the most difficult storm systems to try to pin down I can remember in quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow, hard to believe the model that held its own against all others is the one that's about to score. Really instills faith in the Euro, although quite honestly it could have been the other way around. Just to be fair to the other models, the Euro did waver plenty. However, it was always on the eastern end of guidance and right now is looking to be correct barring a swing back left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 In a lot of ways this is what makes meteorology fun but also incredibly frustrating, especially when being charged with making tough decisions in complex situations with lots of variability and lower confidence. Ultimately had to hope that most of the guidance today had a clue, and had no reason to think otherwise based on observational data. If it ends up being a bust in our area, just gonna have to take my lumps I'm fairly certain no one envied your position in the office today...Such a tough call one week out....let alone one day out....considering the population and the holiday with all of the hokey pokey via guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I will say though on the 00z NAM, I'm not entirely convinced that areas on the northwest border of Indiana and Illinois don't do well. We don't have the bulk of the precip, but there is a slug of moisture as lower level temps start to crash. 850s remain below freezing for the entire period, and even temps at 925mb start to crash at hour 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 First call for ORD: DAB I'm going to slant stick 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Can you please show the west MI Wx Bell map? My sister is traveling tomorrow I would like to show it to her!! 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I will say though on the 00z NAM, I'm not entirely convinced that areas on the northwest border of Indiana and Illinois don't do well. We don't have the bulk of the precip, but there is a slug of moisture as lower level temps start to crash. 850s remain below freezing for the entire period, and even temps at 925mb start to crash at hour 18: NAM 00z.gif See my post on the previous page about the WAA pattern being favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm going to slant stick 6"Might not even get 6 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Maybe Detroit is reeling this one in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Maybe Detroit is reeling this one in? Closer than it's been outside of a few GEM and Euro runs a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Closer than it's been outside of a few GEM and Euro runs a few days ago. I am being a bit facetious, but who knows, at this point. I was prepared for my marginal severe chance tomorrow, that look to be evaporating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Sending the punting team on to the field rest of the 00z runs will tell if it's a fake or a 50+ yard punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I am being a bit facetious, but who knows, at this point. I was prepared for my marginal severe chance tomorrow, that look to be evaporating. First and final call: stebo gets a dog turd duster and changes his avatar to scrawny arms rob Lowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 ILX starting to wave the white flag on this one their gonna talk to other offices and hpc on what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well GRR definitely has some things to consider tonight! Now it's time to just sit back and see what happens. Probably just wise to leaves the winter weather headlines alone until the precipitation and deformation band starts developing. I will say one thing, it cooled off quicker than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Part of the problem on the 00z NAM for Chicagoland and into the nearby Indiana suburbs is the delayed changeover on the 00z compared to 18z taken verbatim. The run brings a decent amount of precip into the south suburbs and certainly across the border into IN but the changeover takes longer (similar thing also on the 4km run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 While it is clear the trend maybe east. It is interesting to watch the jump on the NAM solution. Same model some asked yesterday why it still ran. AND IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS ABOVE. HAVE CONSIDERED SHIFTING GEARS A BIT TAKING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT WITH THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE NAM OF LATE...THE PENDING ARRIVAL OF A MYRIAD OF NEW 00Z GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AND MAY STILL REQUIRE VERY STRONG FORCING TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING MAY TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE GOING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Skilling's call is Dusting to 2" for NE IL now. RPM still showing the snow over most of Chicagoland in the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Skilling's call is Dusting to 2" for NE IL now. As close as he is gonna get to a "punt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 All hail the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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