Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z RGEM was also east. Actually it's kind of hideous for NE IL purposes. But the real takeaway is the nice donut-hole over LAF on the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ha it's like a giant FU to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z RGEM was also east. Actually it's kind of hideous for NE IL purposes. But the real takeaway is the nice donut-hole over LAF on the snowfall map. rgem_snow_acc_mw_17.png It'll be funny if LAF gets more than where we'll be. Uneasy about this one for various reasons. Family has been pressing me for a call of course... I said at least 2-4" for Lake county with the thinking there's more upside than downside. RGEM says no to that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z RGEM was also east. Actually it's kind of hideous for NE IL purposes. But the real takeaway is the nice donut-hole over LAF on the snowfall map. rgem_snow_acc_mw_17.png Lol what a horrible model. Yesterday, it had the heaviest band of snow through western Illinois. Perhaps the Euro is about to score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I still like my call from yesterday morning of 2-5" from Springfield to Chicago up to Cadillac MI. Although amounts will probably be higher than that up deeper into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It'll be funny if LAF gets more than where we'll be. Uneasy about this one for various reasons. Family has been pressing me for a call of course... I said at least 2-4" for Lake county with the thinking there's more upside than downside. RGEM says no to that though. lol, yeah...that would be funny. It's a tough call on this one. The 12z Euro (and its ensembles) going east is a bit disconcerting. But, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lol what a horrible model. Yesterday, it had the heaviest band of snow through western Illinois. Perhaps the Euro is about to score a coup. Guess that means my statement Rainman pointed out about the Euro was indeed ludicrous if Euro ends up scoring. Wooooops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Guess that means my statement Rainman pointed out about the Euro was indeed ludicrous if Euro ends up scoring. Wooooops. Well played. Lol Rainman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 SREF 12hr mean from 15z run. This doesn't seem to be very accurate beyond 24hrs, but within 24 it seems to do decent. Little area of 6" showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It might not be much but the 21z RAP is too weak compared to sfc obs in LA by about 2mb and the sfc low appears to be a little west of the RAP position at 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Mostly clear skies here aiding in dropping the temp and dewpoint nicely. Plot of the surface winds at 5pm. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-89.19,35.89,2048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well played. Lol Rainman. No, I said disaster across the board. Give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Mike Caplan (ABC7 Chicago) tweeted: "Next forecast model update around 9pm. Could be a major revision. I'll let you know." Wagons East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Mike Caplan (ABC7 Chicago) tweeted: "Next forecast model update around 9pm. Could be a major revision. I'll let you know." Wagons East? Given the variability of the models and the limited width of the heaviest snow band(not to mention lacking cold air) no revision would be considered major. Today's social media hype machine. Mike is better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I have a feeling the holiday and it being the first potential snow of the season are playing in as well This and other reasons speculated about all played into our decision. It was a lower threshold lower confidence watch than we typically go with. I'm definitely nervous with the trends of the 18z guidance and 12z Euro but hoping (for my forecast) that convection down south is messing with things a bit and that the track will ultimately put us in a favorable position for the intense banding and dynamic cooling. Regarding the amounts, I think it's unlikely that large of an area sees the higher amounts forecast, but somewhere in the defo band is going to get slammed. Bust potential is high still but unfortunately it's the nature of the beast, especially with a system like this and marginal BL conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 23Z RAP still closed off at 540 through 11Z 24DEC gets the SLP down to 993 east of Indianapolis at 17Z 24DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This and other reasons speculated about all played into our decision. It was a lower threshold lower confidence watch than we typically go with. I'm definitely nervous with the trends of the 18z guidance and 12z Euro but hoping (for my forecast) that convection down south is messing with things a bit and that the track will ultimately put us in a favorable position for the intense banding and dynamic cooling. Regarding the amounts, I think it's unlikely that large of an area sees the higher amounts forecast, but somewhere in the defo band is going to get slammed. Bust potential is high still but unfortunately it's the nature of the beast, especially with a system like this and marginal BL conditions. I'm clueless here. But wouldn't a further east track lead to a more progressive storm with less snow due to lack of dynamic cooling. While a more intense storm winding up will favor the more northwest track? Funny thing is, I'm still more concerned with a more northwest track if this really intensifies. Tough forecast for you guys. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 23Z RAP still closed off at 540 through 11Z 24DEC gets the SLP down to 993 east of Indianapolis at 17Z 24DEC Yeah not bad. Sfc low looks like it's moving due north last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow that satellite imagery is impressive... nice little piece of energy in Northeast Kansas, North Central/Northeast Texas, deep convection/diffluence on the southeast flank of the system... everything just screams big storm if only the temps were in a bit better situation. The concern I have with the intense convection is the opposite of some of the other thoughts... we don't have a closed off upper air system jus yet (although we are getting there) to yank the surface low more West so until that happens I think we monitor that deep convection down South to see if it causes the low pressure to develop more East-Northeast for a while vs. due Northeast or North-Northeast as the models say. We'll see... I know its not conventional but it has me wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Wow that satellite imagery is impressive... nice little piece of energy in Northeast Kansas, North Central/Northeast Texas, deep convection/diffluence on the southeast flank of the system... everything just screams big storm if only the temps were in a bit better situation. The concern I have with the intense convection is the opposite of some of the other thoughts... we don't have a closed off upper air system jus yet (although we are getting there) to yank the surface low more West so until that happens I think we monitor that deep convection down South to see if it causes the low pressure to develop more East-Northeast for a while vs. due Northeast or North-Northeast as the models say. We'll see... I know its not conventional but it has me wondering. One can kind of see the bolded happening with the satellite imagery as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yeah not bad. Sfc low looks like it's moving due north last few frames yeah....but a little bit of hop scotch leading up to it...tough to pick out any strong trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Updated SREF (I think) showing a 1-2 inch system around these parts. Alek's 1.5" call could be $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 First call for ORD: DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Updated SREF (I think) showing a 1-2 inch system around these parts. Alek's 1.5" call could be $$$. If you're referring to cyclone's SREF map above...it refreshed automatically...the 1-2" is for hours 24-36. Need to see hours 12-24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 First call for ORD: DAB Amazed it's taken until now for a DAB call. Just goes to show the unique evolution of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro still slays, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Updated SREF (I think) showing a 1-2 inch system around these parts. Alek's 1.5" call could be $$$. 21Z Plume for ORD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nam looks like a hot bag of vomit. Wave can't go negative tilt so pressures don't fall like you want them to and then your winds at 850mb don't back in the warm sector (they stay SW) so you don't develop a good WAA pattern to get precip into the cold air. Well at least my shift at ORD will be less busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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