Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT just issued a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z NAM is a nuisance event I wouldn't necessarily call it a nuisance event lol. It still hits Chicagoland pretty good with even less mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ninja'd all of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldn't necessarily call it a nuisance event lol. It still hits Chicagoland pretty good with even less mixing issues. i'm not concerned, we really couldn't be in a much better position to thread this needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, I guess I am going to have to watch where the snow sets up. Going to make driving to my brother's house in Oswego a tad difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll be riding this one out in IKK. Thinking an inch or two might do (thinking better snows just to the west of here). Or if nothing else, an hour or two of rip city. Always leery of changeover deals, but we'll hope for the best. Guess what analog was #1 on CIPS using the 12z NAM. 12/1/2006 Gotta do better this time, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 My apologies if it's been posted, I've been out of the loop, but WxBell just added a hi-res RGEM/RDPS to their catalog. 12z run ran the low thru far NE IN and then up to the Thumb. Total QPF map while most likely way too high, is dreamy...even if it's not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Guess what analog was #1 on CIPS using the 12z NAM. 12/1/2006 Gotta do better this time, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 WWAs surround the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT had conference call with other offices and WPC and all agreed on Euro being the eastern outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 15z SREF mean around 5" for both IKK and GYY. Seems like we're both pretty much in the same boat for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 WWAs surround the WSW Screen Shot 2014-12-23 at 2.32.26 PM.png ILZ031-037-038-042>045-051>054-061-240400- /O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0012.141224T1500Z-141225T0300Z/ WOODFORD-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-SANGAMON- CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-SHELBY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...LINCOLN... CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...D CATUR... SHELBYVILLE 216 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING. AREAS WEST OF I-55 SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 9 AM...WITH THE CHANGEOVER BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 OCCURRING BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST NORTH OF I-74. * ACCUMULATIONS...MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES IN AREAS ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN NARROW BANDS WITHIN THIS AREA. * WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES. HOWEVER...AS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY WET SNOW...NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED. * IMPACTS...TRAFFIC WILL BE HEAVIER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY RUSH. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS CAN EXPECT SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT had conference call with other offices and WPC and all agreed on Euro being the eastern outlier... Any talk on the NAM shifting east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any talk on the NAM shifting east? None. Caplan asked about the Euro and if they were discounting that. No 18z NAM talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 15z SREF mean around 5" for both IKK and GYY. Seems like we're both pretty much in the same boat for this one. Yep. And I'd take that running. FWIW, 12z EPS at 12z Wed, 18z Wed, and 0z Thu: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 15z SREF mean around 5" for both IKK and GYY. Seems like we're both pretty much in the same boat for this one. Christmas Bonuses and 5" of cement for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Updated LOT map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT seems to be a bit bullish by their standards with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Any chance of a northwest shift or am I out of the heavy stuff for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Christmas Bonuses and 5" of cement for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 This dang system needs to move more east - I like the NAM, even if it won't be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT seems to be a bit bullish by their standards with this oneAgreed. That's a broad area of 4-6 with still a good deal of uncertainty regarding changeover time. Honestly, I'm more comfortable with the position of the 18z NAM. Seems like we'd be less robbed by rain in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT seems to be a bit bullish by their standards with this one I agree. I think the 2/7/13 debacle has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 what happens to the slp between northern MS and KY will make or break the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I agree. I think the 2/7/13 debacle has something to do with it. I have a feeling the holiday and it being the first potential snow of the season are playing in as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a feeling the holiday and it being the first potential snow of the season are playing in as well I don't envy them at all. There's plenty of precedent for these types of scenarios to turn out on the snowier side but nothing is a lock. I'd rather err on the more aggressive side (within reason) than have to be playing catchup with boosting amounts especially given the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 DTX pulled the trigger on a High Wind Watch. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dtx&wwa=high%20wind%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a feeling the holiday and it being the first potential snow of the season are playing in as well Yeah, this is why they are going WSW and probably go with a Warning when all is said and done, even if the snowfall doesn't fall into warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 DTX pulled the trigger on a High Wind Watch. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dtx&wwa=high%20wind%20watch Not a shock, I also wouldn't be shocked if we see some severe warnings tomorrow with the frontal band either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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