A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT... 2-3 is probably a good broad brush call until we see 1: if/where the enhanced banding sets up 2: how effective dynamic cooling is at flipping to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 some hi res NMM images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 2-3 is probably a good broad brush call until we see 1: if/where the enhanced banding sets up 2: how effective dynamic cooling is at flipping to snowAgreed. I'm guessing LOT will put up WWAs and then upgrade to WSWS as necessary. Or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Pretty great agreement between the NMM/ARW on changeover time and placement across the Chicago area and the it's rip city into the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Still getting the good omega signal in/near the DGZ on the 12z NAM for DPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Amazing detail. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-87.48,37.94,1148 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 FWIW – at 1 PM CST, the pressure is 999.1 mb at New Iberia LA (about 100 miles W of New Orleans). That’s a drop of 3.5 mb in the past 3 hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT is holding a conference call at 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 FWIW – at 1 PM CST, the pressure is 999.1 mb at New Iberia LA (about 100 miles W of New Orleans). That’s a drop of 3.5 mb in the past 3 hours there. There is a lot of convection in the immediate area, so things could get a little screwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT is holding a conference call at 2:30pm. Do they stream or make the calls avaialble to the public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There is a lot of convection in the immediate area, so things could get a little screwy System starting to take shape that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do they stream or make the calls avaialble to the public? They might online but I'm not sure where to find the exact link.I'm able to listen to it through our phone at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There is a lot of convection in the immediate area, so things could get a little screwy Agree - I just noticed that after my post. We'll see how it shakes out for nearby sites in the next hour. For comparison...Baton Rouge (50 miles NE of New Iberia) is actually lower, at 998.4 mb...which is a 4.3 mb drop over the past 3 hours. New Orleans is 1001.0 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 They might online but I'm not sure where to find the exact link.I'm able to listen to it through our phone at work. Their severe weather conference calls are available on NOAA radio as well. Not sure if the same goes for winter weather calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Agree - I just noticed that after my post. We'll see how it shakes out for nearby sites in the next hour. For comparison...Baton Rouge (50 miles NE of New Iberia) is actually lower, at 998.4 mb...which is a 4.3 mb drop over the past 3 hours. New Orleans is 1001.0 mb. early this morning i mentioned that i thought the slp would start to organize north of baton rouge near the LA/MS border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z WRF-NMM. Big moisture slug around 17Z 12/24 kicks off dynamic cooling for snow in Chicago. Best action is going to be in NW MI. Consolation prize wrap around snows depicted for those missing out on the main show in SE MI and SW ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z RAP at 12z tomorrow closing off nicely and already taking on a slight negative tilt with the sfc low sitting on the nose of that mid level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z RAP at 12z tomorrow closing off nicely and already taking on a slight negative tilt rapUS_500_spd_018.gif at this point the RAP is firmly in the hi-res/NAM/GEFS camp but it's almost always west at this range so i'm trying to take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 looks nice and will only improve after that. Looks like some solid agreement on a several hour period of rain, at least closer to the city with a changeover expected around 16/17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 at this point the RAP is firmly in the hi-res/NAM/GEFS camp but it's almost always west at this range so i'm trying to take it with a grain of salt. Yeah but still looks solid IMO. The Euro is east because it takes on a more positive tilt/not closing it off aloft which is pushing the sfc low more off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah but still looks solid IMO. The Euro is east because it takes on a more positive tilt/not closing it off aloft which is pushing the sfc low more off to the NE I'd be a little nervous if I were on the western fringes of this thing. Just gonna have to keep watching the trends. imo the more likely way this could bust for Chicago would be a delayed changeover vs. the bulk of the precip going too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z NAM looks a little east through 21hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z NAM looks a little east through 21hr. It's definitely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'll be riding this one out in IKK. Thinking an inch or two might do (thinking better snows just to the west of here). Or if nothing else, an hour or two of rip city. Always leery of changeover deals, but we'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z NAM is a nuisance event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's definitely east. East and slightly more progressive, which has generally been the trend the last 4 runs (except the 12Z which went west but was still more northward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 on the plus side, 15z sref jumped again with a mean up to 6.5 at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Winter Storm Watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ILZ012>014-020>023-INZ001-240415- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0005.141224T1500Z-141225T0300Z/ KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO... MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...GARY 216 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TIMING...RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WET SNOW IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE WATCH AREA AROUND NOON THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. * SNOW RATES... 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE UNDER THE NARROW BAND. * WINDS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. * MAIN IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY FROM AROUND ONE MILE OUTSIDE OF THE BAND TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WITHIN THE SNOW BAND. * OTHER IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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