Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 While the results might not be as envisioned from the start. It has been a roller coaster ride which is far from over. East vs West bottom line..... We have had fun watching the birth of the Grinch 2014!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 canadian coming west from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 canadian coming west from 0zIndeed it did. Has the accumulating snow axis in the same area as the GFS/PGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Indeed it did. Has the accumulating snow axis in the same area as the GFS/PGFS.If the ECM comes west, I think we can confidently congratulate the GFS a on a job well done against other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Indeed it did. Has the accumulating snow axis in the same area as the GFS/PGFS. Do you have the link to the snow map? That way I can bookmark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z hi-res will end up in the western camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't think we can toss any solution at this point. Sometimes the hi-res stuff leads the way but just goes a bit too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't think we can toss any solution at this point. Sometimes the hi-res stuff leads the way but just goes a bit too far. low ends up just east of chicago, 4"-8" strip of cement from RFD to Moneybags, DAB-3" NW to SE over the rest of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS soundings verbatim are going to be warm and look very marginal for snow, which can be seen on the COBB outputs. However, the GFS is showing very impressive frontogenesis and omega in the deformation axis, which results in the high qpf values. Also to start, there is some negative EPV present. In this sort of setup, the marginal BL conditions are typically overcome by dynamic cooling to favor snow as the p-type. Models do not handle it well, so mid 30s 2m temp and dewpoints the model is showing would likely be forced down to low 30s by the heavy precipitation in reality. A good recent example of this was the snowstorm on 2/7/13 in northeast IL and southern WI. If I can figure out how to upload some AWIPS screen caps I took from the 12z OP GFS, I'll put them up as an example. Glad someone brought this up as I was wondering if this would be one of those setups where evap cooling plays a role. Of course, this only adds more uncertainty to the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 RCNYILWX, on 22 Dec 2014 - 10:38 AM, said: GFS soundings verbatim are going to be warm and look very marginal for snow, which can be seen on the COBB outputs. However, the GFS is showing very impressive frontogenesis and omega in the deformation axis, which results in the high qpf values. Also to start, there is some negative EPV present. In this sort of setup, the marginal BL conditions are typically overcome by dynamic cooling to favor snow as the p-type. Models do not handle it well, so mid 30s 2m temp and dewpoints the model is showing would likely be forced down to low 30s by the heavy precipitation in reality. A good recent example of this was the snowstorm on 2/7/13 in northeast IL and southern WI. If I can figure out how to upload some AWIPS screen caps I took from the 12z OP GFS, I'll put them up as an example. From part I on this storm topic: Yeah I remember that event really well. What was supposed to be a longer period of mixed precipitation in the morning into the afternoon, turned out to be a 95% snow event, where I picked up 10". Went from a bit of drizzle to straight moderate snow within a half hour. Just plucked these soundings off of Twisterdata. Location at the state line here. Not seeing that pronounced mid level warm layer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Even on the north/Northwest side of the deformation zone on the GEM some are a mix or rain if returns aren't heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 the often stingy lame arw also west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Canadian hit this track a cycle run before the gfs did iirc...perhaps at the same time as the pgfs....on the road....so without my links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 the often stingy lame arw also west Not even close to as west as the RGEM/4km. Chicago is starting to look better and better for potential accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 250 mile spread 48hrs out... Not bad not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Canadian hit this track a cycle run before the gfs did iirc...perhaps at the same time as the pgfs....on the road....so without my links PGFS had an amped version before the GEM did, but GEM did catch on for a few runs before it abandoned the idea for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS had an amped version before the GEM did, but GEM did catch on for a few runs before it abandoned the idea for a few days. Ah ok...thanks...i remembered that run where it that solid n/s hit through IL early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS/PGFS/GEM/WRF bros agree on a nice swath of snow from central IL up through Chicago and up into western/northern MI with the 12z. 12km NAM in the farthest southeast camp with a nice hit from LAF up into the southeast half of MI. 4km NAM and RGEM smoke the northwest half of IL and southern WI. Still some outliers on both sides, but the GFS/PGFS consensus of a central IL to Chicago hit is looking the best at this point IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 NAM should be discontinued. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 GFS/RGEM/NAM surface low tracks. For some reason the GGEM didn't plot but its track is similar to the GFS. Notice the left hook at the end by the RGEM. Quite a gap between the RGEM/some other hi-res models and the other stuff. The RGEM never really gets the surface low into the Gulf of Mexico. This is a tough one as far as which camp to lean toward. As I said before, I wouldn't rule out anything yet so the best course for now may be some sort of compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think the NAM is sniffing out the real storm pattern. /hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think the NAM is sniffing out the real storm pattern. /hope. it's baby stepping west in line with the other non-euro guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 it's baby stepping west in line with the other non-euro guidance I don't think I have a shot at this one, I really just want to see NW lower get in on the action...... For my own sake, another 100 miles west is fine... The GFS and 4K NAM screw the entire state of Michigan. Oh well, this lack of winter is saving me lots of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Through 48hr, the 12z Euro is a little NW, a touch faster, and 2mb stronger (996mb) at 12z Wed on the KY/TN border over Kentucky Lake. Also more QPF on the north side of the low all the way back down to the WSW side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro looks stronger and probably going to go a least a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Euro looks stronger and probably going to go a least a little west. Yep 990mb just south of Indy at 18z Wed compared to between Louisville-Lexington on the 0z run. Much better defined defo band structure as well. Looks like the Euro is the slowest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 987mb over SBN at 0z Wed evening 981mb NE of Saginaw at 6z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Springfield to Chicago to Cadillac MI looking pretty good to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Digging the westward trends w/the latest runs -- the local folks have been extremely bearish on any potential snowfall for the StL metro area. Crossing my fingers for the timing to slow just a bit for the onset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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