Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'm just having fun. They have done well with the epo though. I wouldn't be shocked if the ridge goes up and the cold comes down. Mid-late march cold is warm anyways.I defintely wouldnt be surprised if we have to claw to the warm season again. I'm tired though... Fortunately DC avg is 60+ at end mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I haven't even looked past this storm in a while. I hope the temporary warmup is coming. Snowcover is getting lame. The 10th-15th have looked seasonable AOA for a while. Some 60's should happen during that period if it doesn't rain or some sneaky back door front drops down. My wag is those 5 days average above normal. How much (if at all) is anyone's guess. I don't give a crap about snowpack anymore. It will still melt with temps below freezing during the day so may as well just get rid of it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro weeklies said F this post. mattie g says F the Euro weeklies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 mattie g says F the Euro weeklies! this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 All about padding stats at this point. If we do hit 60s it will feel like summer. I think we are sufficiently padded at this point. Adding another mod event wouldn't change the stats much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro keeps getting is to mid-60s on Wed ahead of front. Another Euro fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Another Euro fail. GFS MOS has mid 60s next Wednesday now. New Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 yeeeap, it's that time again whether you like it or not. 0z Euro generally favors slightly below to average going forward. Even this is a sharp change from what we have been experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Even though it's been cold and snow on the ground here for most of the last 3-4 weeks can see buds fattening on cherry trees around here, and the something trees behind my place have red fuzzies. Full on crocus and daffodil watch once the snow melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Euro is mild/warm wall to wall. Get out the itshappening gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 There we go. Now we just need tubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 It's gorgeous out at only mid 30s. Let's do this in terms of a real warmup and spring. I could care less about snowcover. It has been here since February 14, that's unreal. Need real warmth. It's past time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 I can't even remember the last time DCA had a whole week above freezing in MOS (or actual). Got the first out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Ian, what is best for an actual severe season across the country in terms of indices? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Ian, what is best for an actual severe season across the country in terms of indices? Sent from my iPhone Not completely sure.. I think it's a bit more mixed than winter overall. During peak season in the central US you generally don't want a +PNA though. At a certain point you'll end up with the moisture needed either way so a bad flow will still cause storms in places that get a lot of storms. -NAO seems mixed.. I've heard it is good and bad. I think overall it's probably better to have a +NAO. Mark touched on some more in his tornado outlook here: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/02/spring-2015-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 I can't even remember the last time DCA had a whole week above freezing in MOS (or actual). Got the first out of the way. I did look this up.. pretty impressive for DCA: No streak of a week or more with no freezing temps since late December. Longest in 2015 so far is 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Not completely sure.. I think it's a bit more mixed than winter overall. During peak season in the central US you generally don't want a +PNA though. At a certain point you'll end up with the moisture needed either way so a bad flow will still cause storms in places that get a lot of storms. -NAO seems mixed.. I've heard it is good and bad. I think overall it's probably better to have a +NAO. Mark touched on some more in his tornado outlook here: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/02/spring-2015-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Thanks, had missed that, will go read now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Excited to see EPS Meteogram temps when they come out on WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Thanks, had missed that, will go read now. Sent from my iPhone ENSO is a decent signal too. La Niña years are often weighted a bit earlier and further east. Both super outbreals occurred coming out of Nina. I think overall Nina are better years but there have been some big seasons coming out of Nino from mainly the eastern plain into Midwest. And also northern plains.A giant lower us ridge is probably a good signal for the derecho areas to us as well. Great Lakes troughs are good for us too so whatever pattern supports that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Thanks and thanks for the link to mark's piece. I keep over-looking just how devastating the drought in the west is to the normal weather patterns further east. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Euro is mild/warm wall to wall. Get out the itshappening gif. Best news in a while. It's been good...time to move on. I hope we can get about a 10 day stretch in April of mid 60's to mid 70's with not a single cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 DC is the new midwest, just wait. What's bad for them is good for us. If the winter pattern continues into summer one should expect constant, almost prolific storminess for this region (not so much anywhere else). Last summer didn't pan out because the -NAO in combination with the -EPO was just too much to handle. Last summer was definitely on the stable side due to the unseasonable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 DC is the new midwest, just wait. What's bad for them is good for us. If the winter pattern continues into summer one should expect constant, almost prolific storminess for this region (not so much anywhere else). Last summer didn't pan out because the -NAO in combination with the -EPO was just too much to handle. Last summer was definitely on the stable side due to the unseasonable airmass. Last summer had a +NAO. Usually, -NAO summers feature higher geopotential heights over the southern USA, usually giving us a good heat source and a westerly flow aloft. Outbreaks like July 2010 and June 2012 occurred under similar conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Teleconnections get wonky as we head into the late spring and summer months... not too much in the way of good correlations with the sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I Think we're going to get a couple decent upper lows meandering through OH-PA this spring. I have nothing more to go on than gut, of course. I'm just feeling it because we're due a good few spring storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 DCA snagged 32 last night it seems. MOS still above throughout. Also 61 tomorrow at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 Just looked at 0z Euro. Sweeeeeet. Torch next weekend into early week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Just looked at 0z Euro. Sweeeeeet. Torch next weekend into early week? Euro bias of teasing Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.