AlaskaETC Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Wrong thread.. You are looking for the weirdo one. Oh...I thought I was in the Pacific Northwest section.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I....HAVE HAD ENOUGH..................OF WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Cool/dry sounds pretty good to me. Warm/wet is better than warm/dry I guess. My blind guess may have some merit. I pulled some analogs where nino 3.4 warmed from early spring through summer into a nino winter. None of these years are on the heels of a mod or strong enso event and all were + in 3.4 for MAM period. I came up with 57/63/65/72/82/91/97/02. Slightly below normal JJA temps Pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 My blind guess may have some merit. I pulled some analogs where nino 3.4 warmed from early spring through summer into a nino winter. None of these years are on the heels of a mod or strong enso event and all were + in 3.4 for MAM period. I came up with 57/63/65/72/82/91/97/02. Slightly below normal JJA temps jja temps.JPG Pretty dry jja precip.JPG Looks absolutely perfect. BTW, what are those units of measure? Degees? Inches of rain? Or standard deviations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Looks absolutely perfect. BTW, what are those units of measure? Degees? Inches of rain? Or standard deviations? Yes, scale is in F for temps. Just slightly below normal. June was the coolest of the 3 months. Precip is simply inches above/below and not SD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I like to look at QBO/Solar when making seasonal predictions w/ an ENSO basis because they've been a great predictive tool when it comes to predicting tropical forcing in the lower frequency range. This is especially true post-1998. They nailed the flip to warm late last Aug/Sep as well as the coolish June/July that preceded it. I'm still working on the forecast for this summer, but I'm leaning towards a wet summer w/ a cooler 1st half, and a warm/hot 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 tic toc tic toc tic toc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 No spring and summer this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 spring will begin in 60 days. while your waiting please enjoy these -20 to 30 departures. please enjoy the dryness. please enjoy the F-ING COLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 First Daffodlis bloomed today and a few of the buds on my hydrangea are opening. So happy to see spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm very much in the mood for a few days of 60/45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 No spring and summer this year Good. Let's skip straight to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Good. Let's skip straight to fall. Yeah, no thanks. I'm craving some heat and thunderstorm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 No spring and summer this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Let the cold air burn itself out, summer will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Based on the latest EPS weeklies, April is looking at/above normal especially as we get into mid/late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 I'll have to check more in the morning but the early cherry here still hasn't bloomed it seems. It's darn close, but that would put it behind last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I wonder what stage the Tidal Basin cherries are at (I'd assume they're at/just past the 'florets visible' stage?). NPS website hasn't updated yet even for the green buds stage - I'd imagine we have to be at least there by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Starting to see some consistency with ensembles that we lose the anomalous repeating trough in the east and ridge west as we move into april. Looks like some flat zonal flow during the first week of april followed by possible ridging in the east as by the time we get to the second week. Wouldn't call it a big warm signal or anything. But it looks like we may get some pleasant spring weather that lasts longer than 36-48 hours in the not too distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Starting to see some consistency with ensembles that we lose the anomalous repeating trough in the east and ridge west as we move into april. Looks like some flat zonal flow during the first week of april followed by possible ridging in the east as by the time we get to the second week. Wouldn't call it a big warm signal or anything. But it looks like we may get some pleasant spring weather that lasts longer than 36-48 hours in the not too distant future. That would be perfect, if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Awesome. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 warm dry, warm damp, warm to hot and dry coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Finally starting to see some buds on trees. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 are we still counting down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Forecast for aggregated DC area airports, mostly analog based w/ ENSO, PDO, QBO, and Solar Flux [Feb-May] as leading indicators: June: +2.5 July: +1.0 August: -2.5 Precip: Near normal..drier to start, wetter to finish. Expecting a warm start to the summer, with a tendency towards a stout western ridge/eastern trough beginning sometime in mid or late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Interesting h5 look d10-15 for the NH. Strong signal for a consolidated PV spinning right over the pole but a secondary lobe of lower heights off the tip of GL. Wavelengths looks tight with trough west/ridge middle/ flat trough east down the line. If it verifies it will either be wet around a boundary the moves around but pleasant temp wise even if dry. Impossible to know for quite a while but keeping an eye on the PV over the arctic drifting SE over time would resemble last summer's pattern in some ways. We haven't ridged out for a long time. Eventually we will but I'm not seeing it anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Even without ridging out, we still seem to get multiple days with highs in the lower-mid 80s just glancing at the mid-range GFS 2m temps. May should come in above average. Euro looks like it has even higher heights locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Even without ridging out, we still seem to get multiple days with highs in the lower-mid 80s just glancing at the mid-range GFS 2m temps. May should come in above average. Euro looks like it has even higher heights locally. The height pattern supports w-nw upper level flow. I'm not worried about typical above average. I personally despise heat ridges with deep sw flow and high humidity. Even with the euro ens mean h5 height anomalies, 850 temps and wind streamlines look pretty pleasant unless it's rainy. A warm spell next week looks inevitable either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 My WAG is there will be more SE ridging this year at least... though that's not really based on anything other than watching how stuff has played out thus far compared to last year. I'd be surprised if it's not a hotter summer overall.. not necessarily saying a whole lot there. I'd imagine we'll see a good deal of storms too as it seems we should stay near the battle zone of air masses -- some question whether or not the southern stream eventually gets chocked off for a while though? CFS has been advertising plenty of US ridging during the heart of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 do not want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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