GaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think that the importance of the MJO as regards SE wintry wx is far overblown and is much ado about nothing. So, getting cold and/or a major SE winter storm when the MJO is within the COD or in any phase including 4-6 is nothing unusual. So, imo, there is no correlation between MJO phase and SE winter wx. Here is plenty of evidence:MJO: real examples: none of these in phase 8,1,2Look at Jan. of 1977 (coldest month on record for much of the SE)..note that it is low amp/in the COD much of the time:http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1976.12.1.gifLook at how much of the very cold Jan to early Feb of 1978 is in either the COD or phases 4-6:http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1977.12.1.gif3/1-2/1980 big SE snow: CODhttp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1979.12.1.gif Snowjam 1/12-4/1982 Atlanta: CODhttp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1981.12.1.gif3/24/1983 big ATL 7.9" snow: CODhttp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1982.12.1.gif1/7-8/1988 big SE winter storm: CODhttp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1987.12.1.gif3/12-13/1993 Storm of Century: phase 4http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1992.12.1.gifLate Jan of 2000 SE winter storms including Carolina Crusher: CODhttp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.1999.12.1.gif 2/26-7/04 big Carolina snow: phase 5 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200401.phase.90days.gif 3/1/2009 big SE snow: phase 4http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.2008.12.1.gif12/25/2010 snow: phase 5; 1/9-10/2011 big snow: phase 6http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag/pd.2010.12.1.gif Big Feb. 2014 winter storm: COD http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thanks for the info, as always, Larry! You have been the voice of reassurance this month. If there's one less indice we can stress over whilst hoping for wintry weather, I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Thanks for the info, as always, Larry! You have been the voice of reassurance this month. If there's one less indice we can stress over whilst hoping for wintry weather, I'm all for it. You're welcome. If this data doesn't convince someone that the MJO phase is pretty much inconsequential as far as SE major winter storm/cold chances are concerned, then please tell me why and include hard evidence. The MJO is so overhyped regarding SE winter weather correlations that it is absolutely laughable! There basically is no correlation!! I think it should pretty much be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Good info, Larry. I know you're only looking at snow/winter weather events here, but my concern with the MJO has more to do with sustained cold. Phases 3-6 really don't support sustained cold in the east. There are some composite maps floating around somewhere on this. So when I see the MJO headed for those phases with any amplitude, it's hard to ignore, not withstanding the fact that we can still have snow, as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Good info, Larry. I know you're only looking at snow/winter weather events here, but my concern with the MJO has more to do with sustained cold. Phases 3-6 really don't support sustained cold in the east. There are some composite maps floating around somewhere on this. So when I see the MJO headed for those phases with any amplitude, it's hard to ignore, not withstanding the fact that we can still have snow, as you pointed out. CR, thanks! No, I'm not just looking at snow/wintry events. A. There has been plenty of sustained cold during 3-6. So, I even call into question the idea that it is hard to get sustained cold in the SE during phases 3-6 1) 1/16-2/3/1978 was a very cold period in the SE and yet it was in phases 3-6: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197801.phase.90days.gif 2) Look at how much of the cold Jan 2010 was in phases 3-6: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201001.phase.90days.gif 3) Look at how much of the cold Feb. of 1979 was in phases 3-4: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197901.phase.90days.gif 4) Frigid Jan. 2014...mainly 5/6/COD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif B. People here care much more about big winter storms than sustained cold. Nevertheless, I've just provided several examples of sustained cold during 3-6. C. I've seen those diagrams. I'm claiming bollocks regarding what those diagrams suggest. Are people going to look at those and dismiss what I've shown here? I maintain there's very little correlation between MJO and cold/winter storms in the SE, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ok, gotcha. I thought you were just talking storms. That certainly makes me feel better. And I'll bet you made Bevo happy by working "bollocks" in there. Seriously though, thanks for the data! It's very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Probably a dumb question but what is the definition of "sustained cold"? Last winter from Jan to Feb it felt like we had several shots of cold air that last 3-4 days, but nothing "sustained" IMO. But, for 2010, we had sustained cold for the first 2 weeks of Jan, we then relaxed for 10 days or so and then we had another 2-3 weeks of sustained cold for end of Jan into Feb. What's being modeled starting next week looks like a cold shot not "sustained cold" as the models do relax, assuming they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Probably a dumb question but what is the definition of "sustained cold"? Last winter from Jan to Feb it felt like we had several shots of cold air that last 3-4 days, but nothing "sustained" IMO. But, for 2010, we had sustained cold for the first 2 weeks of Jan, we then relaxed for 10 days or so and then we had another 2-3 weeks of sustained cold for end of Jan into Feb. What's being modeled starting next week looks like a cold shot not "sustained cold" as the models do relax, assuming they are right. Pack, Not a dumb Q! However, the answer is that I don't have a specific def. I honestly think you're overthinking this. The is the SE. It is quite rare to have long stretches of cold without at least some interruption. Besides, the examples I showed are still some of the most sustained in recent decades in the SE US regardless of whether or not you care to include 1/2014. Bottom line: Being in phases 4-6, any phase, or in the COD are not a detriment to cold and major winter storm possibilities in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Probably a dumb question but what is the definition of "sustained cold"? Aren't you married? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Aren't you married? Lol. Relationships aside, I'd say sustained cold is a pattern lasting a t least a couple of weeks with more below average days than normal or above. My criteria isn't too stringent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You rock Larry!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 But you can bet that if the MJO phase is favorable, it'll be trotted out as proof that we'll have a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lol. Relationships aside, I'd say sustained cold is a pattern lasting a t least a couple of weeks with more below average days than normal or above. My criteria isn't too stringent. CR, Ok, I think I can satisfy your sustained criteria at least five times for phases 3-6 (see below). So, as I've been saying, you can get sustained cold during phases 3-6 in the SE. However, after a couple of hours of analyzing this more carefully and looking at all winter months since 1974, I feel I need to backtrack somewhat on the idea of a very low correlation between winter mildness and phases 3-6 in the SE. I do now think that there probably is a halfway decent partial correlation between phases 3-6 and above normal temp.'s and vice versa for phases 7-8/1-2 though still not a high correlation. I'm saying that because I saw more instances of mild 3-6 and cold 7-8/1-2 than the other way around. So, whereas I'm still saying that getting sustained cold during phases 3-6 isn't at all unusual (see below) and that there's still reason for hope for cold to dominate the first half of this Jan. even if phases 3-6 were to dominate as suggested by the EPS, I'm now going to call it a modest rather than very low correlation between phases 3-6 and SE mildness in winter. However, I'm not at all backtracking regarding the idea that major SE winter storms aren't favored by phases 7-8/1-2 over 3-6 and the COD as evidenced by the numerous examples I cited. The distribution of major winter storms in the SE was scattered all over the MJO spectrum as well as both inside and outside the COD. Let's face it. That's what most posters here seem to care more about by far as compared to sustained cold. Sustained cold at RDU during phases 3-6 between 1974 and the present: 1. 11/30-12/10/1976: phases 5-6 low to mod amp http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197610.phase.90days.gif 2. 1/16-2/3/1978: phases 3-6 at pretty high amp of 2-3 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197801.phase.90days.gif 3. 2/9-20/1979: mainly low amp phase 3 and then just in COD near phases 3/4 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197901.phase.90days.gif 4. 2/4-18/1985: phases 3-5 at very high amp of 3-4! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198501.phase.90days.gif 5. 12/2-14/2010: low amp phases 3-6 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201010.phase.90days.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Although I maintain my opinion that the MJO is much ado about nothing major winterstormwise in the SE based on the many cited examples and that also there have been some instances of cold when within phases 3-6 as listed, I as mentioned did find a decent correlation between phases 3-6/warmth as well as 7-2/cold as there were clearly more cases like these for the SE (based on RDU) than the reverse for the period since 1974. Because we are searching for reasons for the lack of a +PNA in the near future per models, I've decided that getting to the left side of the circle (7-2) would at least be reason for hope for the SE to finally get back to being cold dominated. Per the model consensus with extra emphasis on the EPS, it would appear that the first really good chance to get back over to phase 7 would be ~1/15 based on the projections out through 1/9. With that, the weak Niño/high end neutral positive, +PDO, and lingering hope that the SAI/OPI will finally deliver us a strong -AO (SSW or not) at some point, I'm now thinking that the period near 1/15 has decent potential to finally end the current mildness misery and potentially throw us into deep winter conditions. Let's see how the MJO forecasts (especially EPS ) evolve over the next week or so in a last ditch opportunity to salvage an overall cold SE DJF since a quite cold 1/15-2/28 could still be just enough cold weight to do the trick . Even just getting back into the COD may very well help.Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Can you Mind trick the MJO to the cold phase? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 But you can bet that if the MJO phase is favorable, it'll be trotted out as proof that we'll have a good pattern. True, but I think we all can agree the "can" has been kicked so hard and high that we can't see it landing until after the 15th now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Pack, Not a dumb Q! However, the answer is that I don't have a specific def. I honestly think you're overthinking this. The is the SE. It is quite rare to have long stretches of cold without at least some interruption. Besides, the examples I showed are still some of the most sustained in recent decades in the SE US regardless of whether or not you care to include 1/2014. Bottom line: Being in phases 4-6, any phase, or in the COD are not a detriment to cold and major winter storm possibilities in the SE. My experience has been that winters in Ga are usually a roller coaster. Two weeks of cold, two weeks of not so cold. !0 days of cold, and on and on. I don't recall many winters where it was warm like in the last few years, nor many out of the 60's where it was just plain cold. The cold comes down, then eases off, then comes in some more. That's normal to me. The recent super cold stretch of 12 days or so back a few years was as cold as I remember, but it wasn't but a few weeks. The deep south rarely gets all cold, or all warm. I'd say sustained cold would be 2 weeks of bitter cold, followed by a week to 10 days of normal, followed by several more weeks of bitter. I like to make hand made paper when I can flash freeze the pulp by pouring it out when it's 10 or below, usually 6 or so is better. I don't get to do it very often. Sometimes 2 years in a row, then maybe 6 or 7 years off. Nothing is sustained in the south, at least in Ga. You get some good weeks, some good months, some good years, and you get bad weeks, months and years. It's never all bad, and never all good. Even in the recent heat winter, I had a low of 17, and in many "cold" winters it never got to 17 often. You just have to take the good with the bad down here, and wait. Whatever you want will eventually come around. Even a blizzard, lol. I'm still waiting on a foot of snow, but I don't doubt I'll get it, sooner or later....and indices, and models are useful tools, but they don't create the weather. You just have to wait and see what happens. The weather is way, way more amazing than humans and their toys. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Tony, Good post. Agree for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.