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12/22 Icing Threat


NorthArlington101

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The doubt about whether any precip will arrive in time "to take advantage" of the sub-freezing early morning temperatures  seems legitimate, as most the modeled QPF seems to arrive later in the morning after temperatures have risen.    But if you look at the NAM meteograms, which can pick up on the trace amounts that the QPF plots miss, there is a little precip shown around dawn with temperatures below freezing.    This is the 18z run - the 12z run admittedly did not have this.724050.meteogram.gif

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Hey...that's a low blow but truth on some occassions. I'm actually 50 miles Northwest of Baltimore and not quite at Mount Washington weather standards.

I'm 29 miles north of Baltimore City and 1 to 2 degrees colder is the universe in marginal events. Most events in these parts are marginal so sometimes that 1 to 2 degrees is the difference between cold rain and a significant winter storm.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VAZ052-055-056-221700-

/O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.141222T1100Z-141222T1700Z/

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...

FREDERICKSBURG

417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON

EST TODAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START

OFF AS SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE

ACCUMULATION. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND

CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND NOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S...RISING INTO THE MID 30S AT MIDDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL

RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VAZ027-028-030-031-505-506-WVZ055-221730-

/O.EXB.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.141222T1500Z-141222T2300Z/

SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-

EASTERN LOUDOUN-HARDY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...

PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...MOOREFIELD

417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO

6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM

THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START

OFF AS SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE

ACCUMULATION. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

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I'm fairly certain I'll see a few ice pellets then steady regular rain throughout the day.

Welcome to a wet, RAW, wretched cold mizzly, drizzly, grizzly kind of a day with pockets of regular moderate rain thrown in for good measure. I should see a decent coating of rain on my car top.

Its 32/31 right now, I should have no problem warming to above freezing soon after sunrise.

I feel real sorry for the Appalachians and for communities farther north, which will see much more treacherous ice.

 

Timing on the precip looks pretty good for a start after 9am for Dale City. At any rate, temps are already 32.9 and should bust out the cap at 33 degrees and we should be well out of this particular copse of treacherous icy woodland lol. The later we can get this precip to start, the better our chances of being spared a shellacking of horrific freezing rain on all of these chilly surfaces.

 

EDIT!!! 33 degrees with a 33 degree dewpoint as of 724am!!! Couple more hours to precip inception - should be all plain rain!! :) GREAT NEWS FOR THE RUSH HOUR in the Washington metropolitan region.

 

EDIT: 821am in Woodbridge - We have dodged the icy bullet here. Rain and 33 degrees, no freezing on any surfaces. Commuters at least here can breathe a HUGE sigh of relief! Should be just a light steady plain rain all day, and cold as heck.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-222145-

/O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-141222T2300Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN...

DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...

FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM

EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF

AS SLEET AT THE ONSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON

ELEVATED SURFACES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM THIS MORNING AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY

EARLY THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS MORNING SLOWLY RISING INTO THE

MIDDLE 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-222145-

/O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-141222T2300Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN...

DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...

FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM

EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF

AS SLEET AT THE ONSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON

ELEVATED SURFACES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM THIS MORNING AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY

EARLY THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS MORNING SLOWLY RISING INTO THE

MIDDLE 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

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