Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 stay aware everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I havent even looked at current temps but I'll take the over. I'm 33 but the low spot nearby are 29. City is much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The doubt about whether any precip will arrive in time "to take advantage" of the sub-freezing early morning temperatures seems legitimate, as most the modeled QPF seems to arrive later in the morning after temperatures have risen. But if you look at the NAM meteograms, which can pick up on the trace amounts that the QPF plots miss, there is a little precip shown around dawn with temperatures below freezing. This is the 18z run - the 12z run admittedly did not have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hey...that's a low blow but truth on some occassions. I'm actually 50 miles Northwest of Baltimore and not quite at Mount Washington weather standards.I'm 29 miles north of Baltimore City and 1 to 2 degrees colder is the universe in marginal events. Most events in these parts are marginal so sometimes that 1 to 2 degrees is the difference between cold rain and a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I will be counting on Sterling to be diligent and issue an advisory - hopefully not after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Kinda curious ers-wxman1, will the ZR advisory be expanded to include Spotsylvania and Stafford counties?Sitting at 28 in Spotsylvania, just not sure how much QPF falls around here. Anyone have QPF numbers for Fredericksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hey...that's a low blow but truth on some occassions. I'm actually 50 miles Northwest of Baltimore and not quite at Mount Washington weather standards. 50 miles? Do you live in PA? Even littlestown in Adams county is less than 50 miles from the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You are correct... from the( beltway ) I'm about 40 miles. I live 2 miles south of m/d line. Back on topic hrrr keeps the cad pretty dug in thru lunch time with temps in the 32-33 range here. Rap looks a good bit warmer. Doesn't RAP run warm, or cold, or whatever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2z HRRR is dry until noon. Temps are in mid 30s around here by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Although the precip type maps say otherwise, this sounding looks a lot like snow for western Fairfax county. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Currently 26.2/23 out there, so there's some room to warm after sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 VAZ052-055-056-221700- /O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.141222T1100Z-141222T1700Z/ PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK... FREDERICKSBURG 417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. * TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND NOON. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S...RISING INTO THE MID 30S AT MIDDAY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 VAZ027-028-030-031-505-506-WVZ055-221730- /O.EXB.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.141222T1500Z-141222T2300Z/ SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN-HARDY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...MOOREFIELD 417 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. * TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm fairly certain I'll see a few ice pellets then steady regular rain throughout the day. Welcome to a wet, RAW, wretched cold mizzly, drizzly, grizzly kind of a day with pockets of regular moderate rain thrown in for good measure. I should see a decent coating of rain on my car top. Its 32/31 right now, I should have no problem warming to above freezing soon after sunrise. I feel real sorry for the Appalachians and for communities farther north, which will see much more treacherous ice. Timing on the precip looks pretty good for a start after 9am for Dale City. At any rate, temps are already 32.9 and should bust out the cap at 33 degrees and we should be well out of this particular copse of treacherous icy woodland lol. The later we can get this precip to start, the better our chances of being spared a shellacking of horrific freezing rain on all of these chilly surfaces. EDIT!!! 33 degrees with a 33 degree dewpoint as of 724am!!! Couple more hours to precip inception - should be all plain rain!! GREAT NEWS FOR THE RUSH HOUR in the Washington metropolitan region. EDIT: 821am in Woodbridge - We have dodged the icy bullet here. Rain and 33 degrees, no freezing on any surfaces. Commuters at least here can breathe a HUGE sigh of relief! Should be just a light steady plain rain all day, and cold as heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I guess this system will create its own precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I guess this system will create its own precip Waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-222145- /O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-141222T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN... DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY... FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SLEET AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS MORNING SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-222145- /O.EXA.KLWX.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-141222T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN... DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY... FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 833 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SLEET AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS MORNING SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 overkill lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 overkill lol. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You need actual precip for an advisory correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You need actual precip for an advisory correct? I'm issuing a chilly shower advisory effective at 11a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You need actual precip for an advisory correct? I had a sprinkle. Cold sprinkle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Have had a little bit of ice in Spotsylvania, still 31 with a shower every now and then, no glaze on roads, just on colder surfaces and tree branches etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We are beginning to have some precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That was quick ============ Statement as of 11:29 AM EST on December 22, 2014 ... Freezing Rain Advisory is cancelled...The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington hascancelled the Freezing Rain Advisory.Temperatures will continue to rise above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We rock at pity and ultimately unnecessary advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 There was a time when LWX would wait quite awhile before raising watches, advisories and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Another ice threat that won't materialize. Yup. The theory holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 the only event threads that succeed here are rain threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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