SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Someone said this before I think, but in this case I'd almost take my chances and go for the NRN stream interaction, if you don't get any at all its likely to be a miss...the end solution is probably going to be in between the Euro and GFS right now....the GFS does tend to perform better with the NRN stream but it also can be a phase loving model with the NRN stream in patterns that are not conduvice to big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The para GFS has zero chance of happening. What's your scientific reasoning behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Someone said this before I think, but in this case I'd almost take my chances and go for the NRN stream interaction, if you don't get any at all its likely to be a miss...the end solution is probably going to be in between the Euro and GFS right now....the GFS does tend to perform better with the NRN stream but it also can be a phase loving model with the NRN stream in patterns that are not conduvice to big storms. That would be me. Without the northern stream involvement it's going to be really difficult to get a system of any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Read my original post that you quoted a few times. Which one? The one about the SE ridge and the buzz saw? That northern stream energy was on all of the major guidance today, just a bit too slow to have any sort of impact. The GGEM and PGFS are quicker and so that lead shortwave doesn't outrun everything else as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 18z GFS is going to have a much more phased solution. It's slower and not nearly as sheared out as previous runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 one thing i do like to see on the 18z gfs is the fact you have a bombing near the 50/50 location which is keeping that high pressure closer to us. and seems like the gfs makes it a almost 1040 high over maine, things are starting to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Nice cutter this run and late secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice run-to-run consistency from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice run-to-run consistency from the gfs Youre looking for run to run consistency. On a storm 6 days out. In this type of pattern. Maybe stick to the banter threads for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice run-to-run consistency from the gfs Every model has Been like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Watch out for a storm around the 6-7. All of the models show a clipper coming down which bombs out near the coast. Too early to tell where it will bomb out but great model consensus on a storm this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Watch out for a storm around the 6-7. All of the models show a clipper coming down which bombs out near the coast. Too early to tell where it will bomb out but great model consensus on a storm this far outSMH 8-9 days out?Before focusing that far I would still consider the 3-4 system because the gfs op is clearly trending colder with secondary development. The high to the north is getting stronger and we are seeing more CAD. If the cold trend continues, then we would def see some wintry conditions. Low level cold is almost always underestimated in these setups so icy conditions could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 SMH 8-9 days out? Before focusing that far I would still consider the 3-4 system because the gfs op is clearly trending colder with secondary development. The high to the north is getting stronger and we are seeing more CAD. If the cold trend continues, then we would def see some wintry conditions. Low level cold is almost always underestimated in these setups so icy conditions could be a problem. The PGFS doesn't agree with the GFS. Not much CAD at all, big rain storm as the low tracks near Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 gfs- para combo http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123000/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_22.png that ain't pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hard to tell with the basic maps, but doesn't even look like UKMET has a storm. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hard to tell with the basic maps, but doesn't even look like UKMET has a storm. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif motor city madness NAVGEM third party opinion http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014123000/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_21.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Id take the Gfs . Front end snow to rain for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Id take the Gfs . Front end snow to rain for inland areas This run is mostly ice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This run is mostly ice for our area. If u want to get technical the soundings i have only go to hr 120 and it's all snow and would still most likely snow a few hrs after . It's so far out it does t matter at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The PGFS doesn't agree with the GFS. Not much CAD at all, big rain storm as the low tracks near Detroit. The PGFS already seems like garbage and it hasn't been proven to be any more accurate than the old gfs. It goes from a shredded system to a big cutter in a run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The PGFS already seems like garbage and it hasn't been proven to be any more accurate than the old gfs. It goes from a shredded system to a big cutter in a run or two. Is the euro garbage to ? It went from a cutter to snow storm for us and than a miss to the south . They all have been inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 the skinny on gfs para implementation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-46gfs_cca.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A big strong westerly cutter like the GGEM shows could be what the Xmas storm failed to do. Any storm that can potentially disrupt the NAO would be welcomed. However no solution could be made right now until there's more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A big strong westerly cutter like the GGEM shows could be what the Xmas storm failed to do. Any storm that can potentially disrupt the NAO would be welcomed. However no solution could be made right now until there's more consistency. I just think that type of solution won't verify, til the Euro jumps on board I'm skeptical, as bad as its been this year. Many of its ensembles are amplified but it has plenty of flat solutions too. The NavGEM rule would suggest this event may be far from settled...remember, often when its fairly close to other globals at Day 5-6 often times the globals make a major shift...its fairly rare to see a NavGEM idea at 120 plus hours verify and right now its damn close to everything but the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Elvis http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123000/ecmwf_mslpa_eus_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This one is a wrap . The only front end dumb you get with this looks like ...... Cold before and after . A true kick in the sack pattern . All wet zero white . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wash rinse repeat I think it is fairly obvious now that this will not be like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ...my thoughts going into any winter was to get a 2 week stretch that would be conducive for a colder, perhaps snowier period..maybe that should be our thinking here..and at this point that might be hard to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 The Euro was showing it's bias longer range on the earlier runs. Now we are getting closer and it sees the energy won't hang back over the SW and the SE Ridge forces the natural cut. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141230082828-15409-2392.gif Although its not what i want to see this winter, you have been dead on thus far compared to everyone pro and amatuer. Keep it up chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Can we keep the bickering in the banter thread please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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