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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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Someone said this before I think, but in this case I'd almost take my chances and go for the NRN stream interaction, if you don't get any at all its likely to be a miss...the end solution is probably going to be in between the Euro and GFS right now....the GFS does tend to perform better with the NRN stream but it also can be a phase loving model with the NRN stream in patterns that are not conduvice to big storms.

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Someone said this before I think, but in this case I'd almost take my chances and go for the NRN stream interaction, if you don't get any at all its likely to be a miss...the end solution is probably going to be in between the Euro and GFS right now....the GFS does tend to perform better with the NRN stream but it also can be a phase loving model with the NRN stream in patterns that are not conduvice to big storms.

That would be me. Without the northern stream involvement it's going to be really difficult to get a system of any significance.

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Read my original post that you quoted a few times.

Which one?

 

The one about the SE ridge and the buzz saw?

 

That northern stream energy was on all of the major guidance today, just a bit too slow to have any sort of impact.

 

The GGEM and PGFS are quicker and so that lead shortwave doesn't outrun everything else as much.

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Watch out for a storm around the 6-7. All of the models show a clipper coming down which bombs out near the coast. Too early to tell where it will bomb out but great model consensus on a storm this far out

SMH 8-9 days out?

Before focusing that far I would still consider the 3-4 system because the gfs op is clearly trending colder with secondary development. The high to the north is getting stronger and we are seeing more CAD. If the cold trend continues, then we would def see some wintry conditions.

Low level cold is almost always underestimated in these setups so icy conditions could be a problem.

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SMH 8-9 days out?

Before focusing that far I would still consider the 3-4 system because the gfs op is clearly trending colder with secondary development. The high to the north is getting stronger and we are seeing more CAD. If the cold trend continues, then we would def see some wintry conditions.

Low level cold is almost always underestimated in these setups so icy conditions could be a problem.

 

The PGFS doesn't agree with the GFS. Not much CAD at all, big rain storm as the low tracks near Detroit.

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The PGFS already seems like garbage and it hasn't been proven to be any more accurate than the old gfs. It goes from a shredded system to a big cutter in a run or two.

Is the euro garbage to ? It went from a cutter to snow storm for us and than a miss to the south . They all have been inconsistent

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A big strong westerly cutter like the GGEM shows could be what the Xmas storm failed to do. Any storm that can potentially disrupt the NAO would be welcomed.

However no solution could be made right now until there's more consistency.

 

I just think that type of solution won't verify, til the Euro jumps on board I'm skeptical, as bad as its been this year.  Many of its ensembles are amplified but it has plenty of flat solutions too.  The NavGEM rule would suggest this event may be far from settled...remember, often when its fairly close to other globals at Day 5-6 often times the globals make a major shift...its fairly rare to see a NavGEM idea at 120 plus hours verify and right now its damn close to everything but the Euro

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The Euro was showing it's bias longer range on the earlier runs. Now we are getting closer and it sees the

energy won't hang back over the SW and the SE Ridge forces the natural cut.

get_legacy_plot-web248-20141230082828-15409-2392.gif

Although its not what i want to see this winter, you have been dead on thus far compared to everyone pro and amatuer. Keep it up chris!

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