IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 12z GFS has some northern stream involvment and it sends a slowly deepening surface low to the lakes with a retreating high pressure over southeast Canada. Pretty typical setup here for some snow to freezing rain to rain inland as low level cold air is usually under estimated in these setups. The moisture feed extends all the way down into the Bay of Campeche, which is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks like the 12z PGFS is going to have some northern stream involvment as well but not to the extent of the OP, which might actually be a bit better because the surface low takes a bit of a better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 PGFS actually develops a miller B near OBX at hour 168. The 1040mb high over NW Maine seems to holding better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 This is a pretty good solution for most of the area. The vort max runs out ahead of the northern stream so this never really has a chance of closing off an ULL that would help tug everything back towards the coast, but nevertheless it's a snowy solution. Looks like 0.25-0.50"+ liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The GFS may be handling this better than the Euro because of the NRN stream energy...its hard to say, the trend the last month has bveen S and E so I'm inclined to say the Op GFS is too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 GGEM? Only out to 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The GGEM sends a surface low to the Eastern Great Lakes but then develops a secondary surface low off the NJ Coast which eventually takes over as the main system. It would have been a great solution for this area if the redevelopment occured about 12 hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Very little support if any on the 12z GEFS individuals for a 00z Euro esque solution. Most of the members have either a cutter or a secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The good news is behind this cutter the GFS locks in the cold right through the end of the run with a few snow chances. Probably nothing major but at least cold air is around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Even if it cuts they'll likely be some wintry precip prior to any changeover. The airmass throughout is fairly cold I doubt it'll be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The good news is behind this cutter the GFS locks in the cold right through the end of the run with a few snow chances. Probably nothing major but at least cold air is around Also builds a stout -NAO in la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I thought the system that was origionally forecasted to impact the area today had a chance of being rather icey in spots and the same can be said about this next system. Anytime you have WAA undercutting a retreating cold high pressure system you open up the door for a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Even if it cuts they'll likely be some wintry precip prior to any changeover. The airmass throughout is fairly cold I doubt it'll be all rain. Maybe a little N&W. Temps are mid 30s at the onset and quickly rise into the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Maybe a little N&W. Temps are mid 30s at the onset and quickly rise into the 40s Low level cold air in these setups is almost always under estimated. Usually ice is a problem for the interior valleys where it's harder to scouer out the low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Even if it cuts they'll likely be some wintry precip prior to any changeover. The airmass throughout is fairly cold I doubt it'll be all rain. The 12Z old GFS is probably frozen to rain, the GGEM is likely mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Also builds a stout -NAO in la-la land.I'm not seeing a -nao on the op gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Thru 120 hours, it doesn't look like the Euro wants to cut and there are already signs of redevelopment off the SE Coast at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Euro develops a weak storm. Light accumulations for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 No cutter at least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks a lot like the PARA GFS fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks a lot like the PARA GFS fwiw No it doesn't. It's much weaker and further south and has zero northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 No it doesn't. It's much weaker and further south and has zero northern stream involvement. Compare the map u posted with the map I posted. 1015mb vs 1016mb. Same spot same strung out system. Maybe they get there slightly differently but the two solutions are similar. Quit acting like everything you say and post is gospel and everyone else is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Split the difference then and go from there. The long awaited pattern change has finally occurred though so things should get a lot more interesting. I won't speculate what happens mid month or if we see a true SSW event but for now expect colder weather with opportunities for snow/ice. Chilly NYE expected for those out and about and in Times Square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Compare the map u posted with the map I posted. 1015mb vs 1016mb. Same spot same strung out system. Maybe they get there slightly differently but the two solutions are similar. Quit acting like everything you say and post is gospel and everyone else is wrong. Look at what's going on at H5 and it's not even close. And the bolded statement is out of left field. I never said that anyone else was wrong. If you want to post bad information then have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I agree with this but im comparing surface lp and I even said they get there in a different manner. So we agree to disagree. At least the cutter idea is off the euro table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I agree with this but im comparing surface lp and I even said they get there in a different manner. So we agree to disagree. At least the cutter idea is off the euro table. If you get any northern stream phasing at all this is going to cut. And if you don't, it might get completely sheared out. It's threading the needle at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Hell yeah why would we have it any other way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Hell yeah why would we have it any other way? At least with a cutter you might pull off a front end dump and some ice. With a Euro esque solution most of this area would probably see a coating to an inch or two. The mid-atlantic would be much more favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The only two realistic options with south a strong SE Ridge is a cutter or a sheared out system that gets suppressed by ejecting form the SW too late. gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_25.png That's not entirely true. The key to this whole system is where, when and if we can get the northern stream involved. If not, then yes I agree, buzz saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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