January Forecast Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

Gfs op meanwhile has back to back cutters but we're talking a week or so out and it seems to be trending weaker with that first system meaning more front end mix/snows. How that system evolves will affect the left over energy/system behind it.

It's far from a clear cut set-up.

It wouldn't surprise me if both waves end up flat, it's really been the trend as of late although with the pattern changing slightly that may come to an end.

[PB GFI]

If you are seeing weaker systems that a by product of the actual low level cold press with the PV getting established near Hudson Bay .

Jan 1 - 10 are colder than just a few days of below normal.

You have to take 2 weeks at a time.

You now have a NEG EPO and it's stays neg for the next 15 days. That matters. As the models adjust to the cold air in the pattern so may the solutions. The way this does not cut is if the system is weaker ejecting out if the panhandle staying pos tilted and have it sneak E of the MISS. If the confluence is strong it will belly under. If the vortex ends up further N the ridge will pop and this will cut.

Patience.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The ensembles argue it is, they are predominantly cutter type storms.

This is not correct. 80% of the ensemble members give us accumulating snow of some kind, with a good 5 or 6 giving us SECS events. This number has been steadily increasing since the absurd MECS run two night ago. A growing number of the members are showing SWFE with Miller B redevelopment rather than cutters.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The Para GFS had a lot going for it today and just missed showing a big solution. Do not count this system out. It is far from over.

[SnoSki14]

It wouldn't surprise me if both waves end up flat, it's really been the trend as of late although with the pattern changing slightly that may come to an end.

That's a good thing if you want snow. I'm feeling much better about the next two weeks for snow chances than before.

And yes agree about the pattern and how it can affect storms but we're also starting a pattern that is far colder and far more likely to give us wintry conditions than the pattern for most of December.

[rossi]

That's a good thing if you want snow. I'm feeling much better about the next two weeks for snow chances than before

And yes agree about the pattern and how it can affect storms but we're also starting a pattern that is far colder and far more likely to give us wintry conditions than the pattern for most of December.

You post all the time and change your opinion after each model run. I do not claim to be knowledgeable poster but you are like a cold front - shifting opinions constantly much like the wind!!

[SnoSki14]

You post all the time and change your opinion after each model run. I do not claim to be knowledgeable poster but you are like a cold front - shifting opinions constantly much like the wind!!

It would be nice if models were more consistent then it wouldn't have to be such a guessing game. This winter is just tough to figure out bottom line even respected mets are having trouble.

[donsutherland1]

It would be nice if models were more consistent then it wouldn't have to be such a guessing game. This winter is just tough to figure out bottom line even respected mets are having trouble.

We've just gone through a period where the guidance--even the ECMWF and its ensembles--had very poor run-to-run continuity. One often sees such situations during the autumnal and vernal transitions when the wave lengths are changing. Whether the recent model volatility was the result of a dramatic transition remains to be seen. However, the guidance does seem to have become more consistent in recent runs and there is also growing consensus with regard to an Arctic shot after January 5.

[SnowGoose69]

We've just gone through a period where the guidance--even the ECMWF and its ensembles--had very poor run-to-run continuity. One often sees such situations during the autumnal and vernal transitions when the wave lengths are changing. Whether the recent model volatility was the result of a dramatic transition remains to be seen. However, the guidance does seem to have become more consistent in recent runs and there is also growing consensus with regard to an Arctic shot after January 5.

 

The one thing the ECMWF did get right was the SE ridge dominating from 12/23-12/30 or so, I did not buy it at all at Day 8-10 when it was showing that idea, as a whole the GFS was way flatter with the SE ridge.

[Absolute Humidity]

You post all the time and change your opinion after each model run. I do not claim to be knowledgeable poster but you are like a cold front - shifting opinions constantly much like the wind!!

I'd say that has to do with the models shifting from awesome to terrible from on run to the next and vice versa - like variable winds.

[donsutherland1]

The one thing the ECMWF did get right was the SE ridge dominating from 12/23-12/30 or so, I did not buy it at all at Day 8-10 when it was showing that idea, as a whole the GFS was way flatter with the SE ridge.

On the SE ridge, it did well. It will be interesting to see how that feature evolves over the next 7-14 days. I suspect that it will be dented, but won't disappear. As a result, the Southeast could be spared from any Arctic intrusions during that timeframe.

[WeatherFox]

It would be nice if models were more consistent then it wouldn't have to be such a guessing game. This winter is just tough to figure out bottom line even respected mets are having trouble.

We should keep in mind that the parameterization of the models are not perfect and our national observational network has some gaping holes.   So among other reasons the models will not always be consistent.

[MJO812]

The ggem.is now on board for next weekend

[Ralph Wiggum]

The ggem.is now on board for next weekend

As is the para gfs

[Absolute Humidity]

long time away but it's good to see threats popping up in the LR as we near Jan.

Para is near MECS btw.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro on board!

[delijoe]

And of course the GFS has a cutter....

The lesson this winter so far is if its more then 3 days out its a fantasy regardless of model

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

Are you talking about oz run of the gfs or the gfs para ?

[JSantanaNYC]

Are you talking about oz run of the gfs or the gfs para ?

I think gfs has a cutter and para, ggem, and euro have snow for us.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z ECMWF still had the storm but it was well South. Per the high res Euro maps, liquid is only 0.10-0.20" for NYC, Long Island and New Jersey between the Turnpike and 78. Less than that North. You have to go almost to Ocean County in order to get into 0.50"+ territory.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Gfs is also losing the cutter idea.

[brooklynwx99]

Does anybody feel as if this storm may do the same thing as the one that could have happened today, and get sheared out, like in the 00z ECMWF? I don't think it's too likely, but you never know.

[SnowGoose69]

Does anybody feel as if this storm may do the same thing as the one that could have happened today, and get sheared out, like in the 00z ECMWF? I don't think it's too likely, but you never know.

 

Yes, very much so, it won't get sheared to the extent of being a nothing event but it may end up as mostly a MA storm.  The only reason I remotely see to still have a well NW idea is some ensembles showing it and some progressive models like the NavGEM having a well inland solution.  I'm not enamored with the chances for snow though even if this event is somewhat suppressed.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Does anybody feel as if this storm may do the same thing as the one that could have happened today, and get sheared out, like in the 00z ECMWF? I don't think it's too likely, but you never know.

Absolutely. It's the most likely scenario. PAC jet is still on roids.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yes, very much so, it won't get sheared to the extent of being a nothing event but it may end up as mostly a MA storm. The only reason I remotely see to still have a well NW idea is some ensembles showing it and some progressive models like the NavGEM having a well inland solution. I'm not enamored with the chances for snow though even if this event is somewhat suppressed.

VERY tough winter thus far. Suppression due to sheared out messes or cutters, we just cant get a break in the NYC metro area. If we can get some decent N/S interaction in the MS valley area we could see this deliver a decent sized snowstorm on the EC. We need some well timed northern stream interaction to get this to our latitude with some respectable moisture to throw into out arctic air mass

[IsentropicLift]

You can see the grinder coming down on the 00z ECMWF looking at the 500mb vorticy maps. We would be much better off getting some type of northern stream phasing but without a mechanism to disrupt the PV that seems highly unlikely for this event.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Absolutely. It's the most likely scenario. PAC jet is still on roids.

Still have the Pacific firehose BUT we now have an EPO ridge building which we didn't have before. Most guidance doesn't keep this feature for long though as the pac jet destroys it in about 6-8 days so enjoy it while we have it. Who knows, maybe we can get this to hit DCA-BOS for a change. Looks like it has ample moisture to work with as well. I am much more confident in this system than the past few that were progged and fell apart.

[Ralph Wiggum]

You can see the grinder coming down on the 00z ECMWF looking at the 500mb vorticy maps. We would be much better off getting some type of northern stream phasing but without a mechanism to disrupt the PV that seems highly unlikely for this event.

The models had the northern stream interaction though and they were cutters. Another thread-the-needle event it seems. Imo we want a little interaction but clearly not a full phase.

[IsentropicLift]

The models had the northern stream interaction though and they were cutters. Another thread-the-needle event it seems. Imo we want a little interaction but clearly not a full phase.

Would rather take my chances with a more organized system trying to undercut the PV in Canada.

[REDMK6GLI]

Would rather take my chances with a more organized system trying to undercut the PV in Canada.

Agreed, IF we dont deliver the goods through the first two weeks of january the chance of another snow opportunity from mid month on currently are paltry. In all seriousness we may have to start banking on february to deliver or this winter will be in the books as a clunker. This is ALL hedged on if we dont start seeing established -EPO/AO regime during the remainder of this winter.

With the -QBO at record low levels and the pacific flow pretty much ruling the pattern and with ZERO cooperation from the NAO it really is threading the needle. Thats pretty much it until further notice