Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We aren't really in a warm pattern. We had a neutral/negative departure until just before Christmas. That is a very fair statement...the last 5 days have seen double digit DFN at Central Park...and they are still only +3.0 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That is a very fair statement...the last 5 days have seen double digit DFN at Central Park...and they are still only +3.0 for the month. The first 20 days were normal at knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The fact that you are bnailing is telling....not sure this is really a pattern change but rather a breakdown of the warm pattern which then simply reloads after a brief breakLucky this thread is only 4 pages long. Please start on page 1 and see if I ever say longer than 2 weeks. You extrapolate everything you read into something epic pls go back to page 1 and see what's inconsistent or " bailing " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The first 20 days were normal at knyc That was what I was implying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That was what I was implying... I was agreeing with. No sarcasm implied. The writings could be curt at times because my eyes are bleeding from reading the crying of other postersPB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We are def going to be colder with the -epo but with a +nao and se ridge we are not going to have much snow around here... I think we warm up mid-month also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Our only hope is that everyone here is wrong again. Like when everyone said Dec 15-1 Jan was going to have our first snow event..or when we were suppose to have a torch in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We are def going to be colder with the -epo but with a +nao and se ridge we are not going to have much snow around here... I think we warm up mid-month also... We're warming up, I thought we've already been warmed up JK. Pending a January 2005 style reversal if there's nothing by mid January and the forecast calls for warm beyond through nearly the end of the month then it's gonna be time to close the books on this winter. I'm sticking with a 06/07 type evolution where January is above average, little snow and February ends of being the coldest and snowiest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 i think we could get a few inches before changing to rain next weekend depending on how long the high holds on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I wonder if left over energy after the cutter along with the SE ridging could get something going right afterwards. This cutter isn't one of those big cold front like rushers that flood us with cold and dry right after because there's a lot of SE ridging still in place. So if I had to bet on a snow event prior to any thaw it would right after the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 i think we could get a few inches before changing to rain next weekend depending on how long the high holds on I'd be surprised the way it looks now...to me there are a few issues, one being the high is malpositioned and stale...also models are now seeing some sort of vort or primary low near the Lakes, so even if the southern wave were to stay flatter giving us an overrunning snow chance the primary vort by the Lakes ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The PV splitting is not an indication?The pv splits almost every year.....doesnt mean we see any changes with our apparent weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z GGEM for next weekend Lol and the ggem has been on a hot streak too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We're warming up, I thought we've already been warmed up JK. Pending a January 2005 style reversal if there's nothing by mid January and the forecast calls for warm beyond through nearly the end of the month then it's gonna be time to close the books on this winter. I'm sticking with a 06/07 type evolution where January is above average, little snow and February ends of being the coldest and snowiest month. Why would you close the books on winter in January when you just said you think February will be our snowiest month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Snowstorm on the Euro next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Don't think it will end up that way but Euro has a snowstorm for us Sunday...no phase with the northern stream...so it ends up going south of the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Snowstorm on the Euro next weekend I was just getting ready to post the images .. Don't exactly trust these models and individual storm solutions past day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Lately storms have trended weaker as we got closer so a big strong cutter could very well be exaggerated. Still going with a mix to rain though as it seems like the more likely option. Models lacking any consistency right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 From what im hearing from other meteorologist is we will have a January thaw around mid month that will last around 10 days then we go back into a cold pattern. Not sure if it actually happens but hope so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 From what im hearing from other meteorologist is we will have a January thaw around mid month that will last around 10 days then we go back into a cold pattern. Not sure if it actually happens but hope so... Well be close to +10 next weekend so well before mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_atlantic_180_500_522_564_ht.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f168_us.html Guidance that will hold water---imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Snowstorm on the Euro next weekend Hopefully this isn't one of those phantom D6-7 snowstorms the Euro loves to show: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Hopefully this isn't one of those phantom D6-7 snowstorms the Euro loves to show: The ensembles argue it is, they are predominantly cutter type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The ensembles argue it is, they are predominantly cutter type storms. And we know the euro ensembles haven't been stellar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The mean looks more like a swfe, gives the area some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Para has the pv is set canada....no way it cuts into that on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Fwiw para is going to show a solution similar to the Euro..pv is se canada...forcing it under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yep ParA ends up.giving us a snowatorm...tons of options still on the table for.this...but if the Pv is in se canada it will be hard for.it.to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Gfs op meanwhile has back to back cutters but we're talking a week or so out and it seems to be trending weaker with that first system meaning more front end mix/snows. How that system evolves will affect the left over energy/system behind it. It's far from a clear cut set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The mean looks more like a swfe, gives the area some snow I'll believe it when snow flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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