atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This pattern can get pretty wintry if the MJO does indeed go into phase 8 which looks like it will. This shows we just entered the COD after being briefly in phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Jma is east. JMA has a low near the coast for the 27 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Control and Ensembles are really amplified with this weekends storm compared to past runs. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Euro is getitng closer and closer with the system off the coast several days outl..beyond that I'm not thrilled with the where the trof axis is on most guidance, to me its too far east but that can change. The Ensembles are there . This is the control . Solid step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Control and Ensembles are really amplified with this weekends storm compared to past runs. Wow. 23-24? Or 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 23-24? Or 26th 23-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles has another storm on mon night as well, seems there will be some chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Ensembles also love the 2nd storm for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Ensembles also love the 2nd storm for MondayAm I understanding correctly one for the weekend and another on Monday? Which is the one in the 970s near the benchmark? and if there are in d2 is the second one the one pushing the initial shortwave east of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Am I understanding correctly one for the weekend and another on Monday? Which is the one in the 970s near the benchmark? and if there are in d2 is the second one the one pushing the initial shortwave east of the benchmark Yes, one on Saturday and another one on Monday. The ensembles have a lot of members strong for the 1st low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Forgive my ignorance, but what is the COD? I know that being in phase 8 is good for winter weather but can someone explain what the COD is? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Forgive my ignorance, but what is the COD? I know that being in phase 8 is good for winter weather but can someone explain what the COD is? Sent from my iPhone Circle Of Death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Circle Of Death We've had some big snowstorms with the MJO in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We've had some big snowstorms with the MJO in the COD. From my understanding ( correct me if I am wrong) the cod just means the mjo is a non factor in the overall pattern especially if you have other driving forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 From my understanding ( correct me if I am wrong) the cod just means the mjo is a non factor in the overall pattern especially if you have other driving forces. From what I know, that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This could be a nice outcome if the major S/W can have enough room to itself over the SE at 120 hours, but there looks to be a kicker coming in behind on the Euro, which nudges the developing storm out to sea. The ridge out west looks to be in a good position, if anything a little too far west for a big east coast snow event, so hopefully the kicker can weaken some or be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This could be a nice outcome if the major S/W can have enough room to itself over the SE at 120 hours, but there looks to be a kicker coming in behind on the Euro, which nudges the developing storm out to sea. The ridge out west looks to be in a good position, if anything a little too far west for a big east coast snow event, so hopefully the kicker can weaken some or be slower.We need more northern stream involvement to get this more amplified so that it can turn the corner more. I think that's the main problem on the Euro not necessarily the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We need more northern stream involvement to get this more amplified so that it can turn the corner more. I think that's the main problem on the Euro not necessarily the kicker. The ridge position out west and amplitude IMO argue that this should come up the coast. This should also be a potent system with lots of rain-models print out up to a couple of inches of rain down here in Texas from this. So I think the main issue are the vorts following behind this which can kick this out and mess up the amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The ridge position out west and amplitude IMO argue that this should come up the coast. This should also be a potent system with lots of rain-models print out up to a couple of inches of rain down here in Texas from this. So I think the main issue are the vorts following behind this which can kick this out and mess up the amplification. I like the full latitude trough behind it . To me the set up just smells better . It would be a really cold system . Something comes out of the N branch and there is a secondary off OBX and it comes NE . Maybe they are back to back . But I like the 2nd one a bit better , but I will not complain if we manage both . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There's a ton of potential to work with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not sure about anyone else's but I am liking the feb-1st storm plenty of cold are right to the coast my only worry other than it being ten days out is I hope the cold doesn't suppress the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not sure about anyone else's but I am liking the feb-1st storm plenty of cold are right to the coast my only worry other than it being ten days out is I hope the cold doesn't suppress the storm Yeah I think all models have the storm on its radar, and I heard that the EPS has large support for it too at such long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah I think all models have the storm on its radar, and I heard that the EPS has large support for it too at such long leads. the ggem at 240 looks like its from the day after tommrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 the ggem at 240 looks like its from the day after tommrow I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol that's obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Via Ryan Maue Obscene for 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Via Ryan Maue Obscene for 96 hours His Euro low temps maps bust big time consistently during arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 His Euro low temps maps bust big time consistently during arctic outbreaks. They sure are pretty, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What's our monthly temp departure after almost the entire month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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