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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The Euro is getitng closer and closer with the system off the coast several days outl..beyond that I'm not thrilled with the where the trof axis is on most guidance, to me its too far east but that can change.

The Ensembles are there . This is the control . Solid step in the right direction

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Am I understanding correctly one for the weekend and another on Monday? Which is the one in the 970s near the benchmark? and if there are in d2 is the second one the one pushing the initial shortwave east of the benchmark

Yes, one on Saturday and another one on Monday. The ensembles have a lot of members strong for the 1st low.

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This could be a nice outcome if the major S/W can have enough room to itself over the SE at 120 hours, but there looks to be a kicker coming in behind on the Euro, which nudges the developing storm out to sea. The ridge out west looks to be in a good position, if anything a little too far west for a big east coast snow event, so hopefully the kicker can weaken some or be slower. 

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This could be a nice outcome if the major S/W can have enough room to itself over the SE at 120 hours, but there looks to be a kicker coming in behind on the Euro, which nudges the developing storm out to sea. The ridge out west looks to be in a good position, if anything a little too far west for a big east coast snow event, so hopefully the kicker can weaken some or be slower.

We need more northern stream involvement to get this more amplified so that it can turn the corner more. I think that's the main problem on the Euro not necessarily the kicker.
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We need more northern stream involvement to get this more amplified so that it can turn the corner more. I think that's the main problem on the Euro not necessarily the kicker.

The ridge position out west and amplitude IMO argue that this should come up the coast. This should also be a potent system with lots of rain-models print out up to a couple of inches of rain down here in Texas from this. So I think the main issue are the vorts following behind this which can kick this out and mess up the amplification.

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The ridge position out west and amplitude IMO argue that this should come up the coast. This should also be a potent system with lots of rain-models print out up to a couple of inches of rain down here in Texas from this. So I think the main issue are the vorts following behind this which can kick this out and mess up the amplification.

 

I like the full latitude trough behind it . To me the set up just smells better . It would be a really cold system . Something comes out of the N branch and there is a secondary off OBX and it comes NE .

 

Maybe they are back to back . But I like the 2nd one a bit better  , but I will not complain if we manage both .

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Not sure about anyone else's but I am liking the feb-1st storm plenty of cold are right to the coast my only worry other than it being ten days out is I hope the cold doesn't suppress the storm

Yeah I think all models have the storm on its radar, and I heard that the EPS has large support for it too at such long leads. 

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