Rjay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NOGAPS is the most suppressed model they run...when it is that amped...something is up. Idk if that's still true since it's big upgrade in 2013. Its been showing big solutions off and on since day 10. Rule of thumb for me if to autotoss the ggem, navgem (nogaps) and the NAM at all times. I really hope it's right though. Other models aren't too far off...it's all about the timimg of the northern and southern streams. Either the southern stream needs to slow down or the northern stream needs to speed up. So far all the other models have the phase occurring too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Idk if that's still true since it's big upgrade in 2013. Its been showing big solutions off and on since day 10. No one told me...what am I...12th girl on the deal team...last to know??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Idk if that's still true since it's big upgrade in 2013. Its been showing big solutions off and on since day 10. Rule of thumb for me if to autotoss the ggem, navgem (nogaps) and the NAM at all times. I really hope it's right though. Other models aren't too far off...it's all about the timimg of the northern and southern streams. Either the southern stream needs to slow down or the northern stream needs to speed up. So far all the other models have the phase occurring too late. All models phase the northern stream leftover piece with the sheared out energy in parts of the southwest. It's about how favorable of an interaction we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 All models phase the northern stream leftover piece with the sheared out energy in parts of the southwest. It's about how favorable of an interaction we get. I may be the only one...but I happen to agree with you...the clipper will surprise and likely overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I may be the only one...but I happen to agree with you...the clipper will surprise and likely overperform. But I wasn't talking about the clipper lol. The clipper is not looking good right noe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is coming in a lot more amped up with the potential system for this weekend through 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hour 105, surface low over Northern FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hr 111 near Jacksonville. Precip almost up to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hour 117 near Carolina Coast, precip almost up to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hour 120, much sharper and going negative tilt. This is going to be much better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hour 123, deepending surface low kissing OBX, precip almost up to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Going to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still about 4-5 days to go. I Agree with Isentropic, its better than 00z Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Closes off at hour 129, think this just misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yup, bombs away just offshore. 980's just SE of benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That trailing energy is causing all the problems, kicking it East at the last possible second and deamplifying the flow. Gets down to at least the 970's about 150 miles East of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That trailing energy is causing all the problems, kicking it East at the last possible second and deamplifying the flow. Gets down to at least the 970's about 150 miles East of Cape Cod. So we have 50/50 and a digging trough going negative tilt and bombing just Se of the BM. subtract the trailing energy and we are in business ladies and gents. Our first bonafide chance at a KU this this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 966 SE of the BM . That was very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If this storm was to happen when on Sunday does it look like morning noon or night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If this storm was to happen when on Sunday does it look like morning noon or night It would be a mostly Saturday into early Sunday event but the timing is nearly impossible to nail down at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro has the storm for Monday as well. Sort of develops right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The SW behind is on the GFS . Look for something to re form off the MA if the trough axis is not pulled too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Give credit where it is due. (NAVGEM FYI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Not sure what to think... If this pans out it will have to be on the NAVGEM's back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Seeing the changes on the GGEM and the Euro and having the NAVGEM which is normally the most supressed model tells me that the GFS is probably too far offshore. The GEFS members are all over the place in both timing and track, so it's no surprise that the mean is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 it needs to be kept in mind that the snow storm climatology for central and Southern Virginia as well as North Carolina is substantially different than it is for the big cities of I-95. Of course sometimes you get one of these massive systems which affects everybody... But most of the time that is not the case. In this setup we can see the European model has the southern shortwave with a distinct positive TILT at n 108 hours. There is also a 50 / 50 Low over southeastern Canada and the classic position but the POLAR branch of the Jetstream is not dropping in and phasing with the shortwave and the subtropical jet. Because the southern shortwave is already passed the lodge and two of the Mississippi delta -- 90 West Long -- it only has so much room before it can develop a neutral and then potentially negative tilt. On the European and Canadian models this southern shortwave eventually does develop a negative till but by that time the whole system is well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Jma is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hope we pull back a little after this. Will need to give the wallet a rest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This pattern can get pretty wintry if the MJO does indeed go into phase 8 which looks like it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Euro is getitng closer and closer with the system off the coast several days outl..beyond that I'm not thrilled with the where the trof axis is on most guidance, to me its too far east but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.