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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range.

Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time

we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to

Greenland. But who knows for sure.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/

Huge fail by the weeklies

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attachicon.gifd6-7.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20150116%2000%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area

 

day 6-7

 

0Z gfs track pattern

 

someone ...

show me how the trailing system can turn the corner

with this set up in the Atlantic

and I will bite   :arrowhead: 

 

look where the Euro takes that sucker on the 0z run

 

hit refresh if image hangs up

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011600&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

keepin it real

dm

That's not the focus. No one is looking for a bomb on the EC.

Cold and active on the way. That can not be denied. This pattern is not defined by systems in fantasy land.

Most of us don't focus on them. There's a clipper next week and then a sea of cold.

Just keeping it real.

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Paul ...

Did i miss your election to group leader of this forum???? 

You set what the Focus is???   WOW

 

sorry ...I didn't get the memo   :lol: 

 

I am here to track snowstorms 

Its winter.... in the winter it gets cold

 

dm

 

fantasy range temp guidance 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f360_ussm.gif

You and I are free to post on whatever we want. I don't think I was attempting to set your agenda rather just pointing out there is a lot more to this pattern than any one storm .

hit or miss.

You have your focus I have mine. I am certainly cool with that. I just don't take day 6 thru 10 fantasy storms literally there is a bundling of energy on the EC on every long range model.

If they were right we would have Valdez Alaska snow amounts and not KNYC .

big pattern coming. Let's all hope it produces .

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Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows

this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking

that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the

month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing

with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses

in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come

here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many

notable posters have left here over the years.

Check out JMA monthly for Feb at 500 . It would be great if it's right.
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Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows

this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking 

that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the

month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing

with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses

in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come

here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many

notable posters have left here over the years.

Don't get discouraged. Everyone should know that the long-range is extremely difficult. If people think that such forecasts, be they seasonal or monthly, are good confidence scenarios, their confidence in such forecasts is overly high given what is known and what is not known when it comes to attempting to make such forecasts. IMO, long-range forecasts should be viewed probilistically, not deterministically.

 

Also, your point about the AO was spot-on. While there have been exceptions in the past, odds of below- to much-below normal snowfall in the NYC area (actually Mid-Atlantic to southern New England area) are elevated during predominantly  AO+ setups. That virtually all the January KU storms commenced with an AO- and a majority of NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms in January started when the AO was negative, provides a good illustration of the importance of the AO. An AO+ typically sees smaller events (the kind that have been witnessed so far this January).

 

To further illustrate the strong connection between the AO and January snowfall in NYC, January 2014 was very snowy with19.7" snow. All 19.7" fell when the AO was negative. For the past 5 years, 83% of January snowfall occurred when the AO was negative and 76% of February snowfall occurred when the AO was negative. The connection becomes weaker in February, as wave lengths begin to shorten (e.g., 49% of of last February's 29.0" snow fell when the AO was negative, but an additional 9.5" fell the day before the AO went negative as it was heading down).

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Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows

this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking 

that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the

month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing

with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses

in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come

here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many

notable posters have left here over the years.

Your input is greatly valued here, man. Don't let posters (including me when I get sassy) turn you off.

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Our winter pattern seems pretty stable especially regarding the AO, NAO. The EPO and PNA have been more erratic and we've alternated between cold and warm but that's our winter pattern in a nutshell.

I have zero confidence for anyone thinking the AO will average negative this February. Wouldn't that be considered a major pattern change over Dec-Jan considering the AO's stability since early December.

Also in bad winters the LR always shows the goods but the closer you get the more unfavorable things become. Our previous bad winters always showed LR promise only to never deliver and we may be falling into that trap again.

Clippers remain the best chance for snow at this time.

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It would be nice, but something is causing the NWS and other forecasting agencies to have Weds as near-40 with rain.

This is just 2"---if correct, on that  0Z EURO.   Scenario similar to the 1" earlier in the month?   The period 1/18-23 was to be generally above normal temps.  I go with 50/50 chances rain/snow here.   Colder looking runs have been the dry ones all month, at least when it comes to the southerly jet helping out.  Witness another GLC?, at the end of the month,  and an earlier bout with a system from deep south that misses completly but tags Cape Hatteras with a mix.

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Is the massive snowstorm shown for end of period, 1/31---2/01, in Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic make sense with the projected pattern expected at that time?    The coverage would seem to rival March, 1993.

 

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Is the massive snowstorm shown for end of period, 1/31---2/01, in Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic make sense with the projected pattern expected at that time?    The coverage would seem to rival March, 1993.

 

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

not sure if you're kidding, but models waffle within three days and you're looking at day 15?

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This wasn't the AO outcome that we wanted to see. But kudos to the upgraded GFS

for not jumping on the stronger blocking near Greenland that the Euro was showing

a few days ago. The recent ECMWF moved toward original GFS idea of stronger PV

near Greenland. The ECMWF 276 hr forecast was provided as a free sample by WSI a

few days ago on their twitter feed.

 

 Original GEFS vs. ECMWF ensemble means 276 hr forecast 0z 1-26

 

attachicon.gifEURO.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png

 

ECMWF ensemble moves to GEFS forecast  of stronger PV near Greenland 0z 1-26

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

Starting mid week the following 2 weeks are flat out cold . I said 2 days ago that from Tuesday on your precip going forward during this time is snow or no .

We probably get into a clipper pattern . I would not sleep on the EC as the vortex relaxes in between pulses as there is a lot of N branch energy being ejected east under the vortex  it will not take much to catch the backside of a southern stream system and energize it .

Right now that is not modeled with any certainty so I would look for smaller possibly frequent systems to ride through the flow .

 

The coldest air of the season may be ahead of us .

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Starting mid week the following 2 weeks are flat out cold . I said 2 days ago that from Tuesday on your precip going forward during this time is snow or no .

We probably get into a clipper pattern . I would not sleep on the EC as the vortex relaxes in between pulses as there is a lot of N branch energy being ejected east under the vortex  it will not take much to catch the backside of a southern stream system and energize it .

Right now that is not modeled with any certainty so I would look for smaller possibly frequent systems to ride through the flow .

 

The coldest air of the season may be ahead of us .

The gfs doesn't agree. It gives us seasonable to below but not greatly so. I haven't seen the Euro though.

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This wasn't the AO outcome that we wanted to see. But kudos to the upgraded GFS

for not jumping on the stronger blocking near Greenland that the Euro was showing

a few days ago. The recent ECMWF moved toward original GFS idea of stronger PV

near Greenland. The ECMWF 276 hr forecast was provided as a free sample by WSI a

few days ago on their twitter feed.

Original GEFS vs. ECMWF ensemble means 276 hr forecast 0z 1-26

EURO.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png

ECMWF ensemble moves to GEFS forecast of stronger PV near Greenland 0z 1-26

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

they both knocked down the amplitude of the pac ridge. the PV is very resistant to disruption this winter
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