Allsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Those that went warm for January are going to fail...... Euro weeklies are Week 1 -2 Week 2 -8 So much for the warm sst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All the ens agree the -ao is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The latest Euro weeklies keep the +AO theme going until the end of the forecast range. Even the GEFS maintain the PV near Baffin Island through the 25th. Beyond that time we'll see if the -EPO ridge can build over the Pole and make it a little closer to Greenland. But who knows for sure. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/wild-gorge-wind-ski-areas-close-a-look-ahead/ Huge fail by the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice post Doorman. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 d6-7.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20150116%2000%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area day 6-7 0Z gfs track pattern someone ... show me how the trailing system can turn the corner with this set up in the Atlantic and I will bite look where the Euro takes that sucker on the 0z run hit refresh if image hangs up http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011600&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 keepin it real dm That's not the focus. No one is looking for a bomb on the EC. Cold and active on the way. That can not be denied. This pattern is not defined by systems in fantasy land. Most of us don't focus on them. There's a clipper next week and then a sea of cold. Just keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am. No expert bluewave; but I can tell from you posts you give the most accurate info possible keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Paul ... Did i miss your election to group leader of this forum???? You set what the Focus is??? WOW sorry ...I didn't get the memo I am here to track snowstorms Its winter.... in the winter it gets cold dm fantasy range temp guidance http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f360_ussm.gif You and I are free to post on whatever we want. I don't think I was attempting to set your agenda rather just pointing out there is a lot more to this pattern than any one storm . hit or miss. You have your focus I have mine. I am certainly cool with that. I just don't take day 6 thru 10 fantasy storms literally there is a bundling of energy on the EC on every long range model. If they were right we would have Valdez Alaska snow amounts and not KNYC . big pattern coming. Let's all hope it produces . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many notable posters have left here over the years. Check out JMA monthly for Feb at 500 . It would be great if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know that some people are going to be skeptical but the 00z ECMWF nailed the area pretty good overnight with the clipper on Wednesday. Plenty cold and plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many notable posters have left here over the years. Don't get discouraged. Everyone should know that the long-range is extremely difficult. If people think that such forecasts, be they seasonal or monthly, are good confidence scenarios, their confidence in such forecasts is overly high given what is known and what is not known when it comes to attempting to make such forecasts. IMO, long-range forecasts should be viewed probilistically, not deterministically. Also, your point about the AO was spot-on. While there have been exceptions in the past, odds of below- to much-below normal snowfall in the NYC area (actually Mid-Atlantic to southern New England area) are elevated during predominantly AO+ setups. That virtually all the January KU storms commenced with an AO- and a majority of NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms in January started when the AO was negative, provides a good illustration of the importance of the AO. An AO+ typically sees smaller events (the kind that have been witnessed so far this January). To further illustrate the strong connection between the AO and January snowfall in NYC, January 2014 was very snowy with19.7" snow. All 19.7" fell when the AO was negative. For the past 5 years, 83% of January snowfall occurred when the AO was negative and 76% of February snowfall occurred when the AO was negative. The connection becomes weaker in February, as wave lengths begin to shorten (e.g., 49% of of last February's 29.0" snow fell when the AO was negative, but an additional 9.5" fell the day before the AO went negative as it was heading down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We're really going to need some luck because the -AO does look temporary but its brief dip gives me hope for the clipper. As for beyond things remain uncertain. Have we had a lot of influence from the MJO and what would it going into the COD mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dude... the warmer SST's were indicative of the pattern in place with the the more +AO. Outside a few lighter clipper snows this month, all the heavy precip days have been rain due to that +AO ridge pattern . Now Late in December I was thinking that the +AO would cause it to be warmer than normal in addition to less snowy that normal. I knew early in the month when the temps dropped under 10 in NYC that wasn't going to work out. But the idea of the +AO messing with the major snow potential is on track. So I was only half right on my late December call. But the responses in this thread will lead me to never do monthly temperature forecasts here again since there are some that come here for a gotcha and don't have the courage to issue their own long range forecast. No wonder many notable posters have left here over the years. Your input is greatly valued here, man. Don't let posters (including me when I get sassy) turn you off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 todays ao forecast...not as good as yesterdays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know that some people are going to be skeptical but the 00z ECMWF nailed the area pretty good overnight with the clipper on Wednesday. Plenty cold and plenty of snow. Maybe this map will stay up . Clipper . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Our winter pattern seems pretty stable especially regarding the AO, NAO. The EPO and PNA have been more erratic and we've alternated between cold and warm but that's our winter pattern in a nutshell. I have zero confidence for anyone thinking the AO will average negative this February. Wouldn't that be considered a major pattern change over Dec-Jan considering the AO's stability since early December. Also in bad winters the LR always shows the goods but the closer you get the more unfavorable things become. Our previous bad winters always showed LR promise only to never deliver and we may be falling into that trap again. Clippers remain the best chance for snow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know that some people are going to be skeptical but the 00z ECMWF nailed the area pretty good overnight with the clipper on Wednesday. Plenty cold and plenty of snow. It would be nice, but something is causing the NWS and other forecasting agencies to have Weds as near-40 with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Maybe this map will stay up . Clipper . That explains it. A fight between the GFS and the Euro. Given the crappiness of this winter, I put my money on the crappiest outcome possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It would be nice, but something is causing the NWS and other forecasting agencies to have Weds as near-40 with rain. This is just 2"---if correct, on that 0Z EURO. Scenario similar to the 1" earlier in the month? The period 1/18-23 was to be generally above normal temps. I go with 50/50 chances rain/snow here. Colder looking runs have been the dry ones all month, at least when it comes to the southerly jet helping out. Witness another GLC?, at the end of the month, and an earlier bout with a system from deep south that misses completly but tags Cape Hatteras with a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Seems northeast is being machine-gunned with storms late in the current run, 12Z, but none of slugs are marked 'snowstorm' yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro shows some potential for that clipper next week. It's hard to tell by looking at the 24 hr intervals but I looks like it redevelos just SE of us, if we can get that to dig a bit more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Clipper tracks along I-78 on the euro...light mix/snow then dry slot...redevelops to late for us. Late week storm is back...nor Easter with a benchmark track...all snow Obv that's fantasy range on a op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is the massive snowstorm shown for end of period, 1/31---2/01, in Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic make sense with the projected pattern expected at that time? The coverage would seem to rival March, 1993. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is the massive snowstorm shown for end of period, 1/31---2/01, in Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic make sense with the projected pattern expected at that time? The coverage would seem to rival March, 1993. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false not sure if you're kidding, but models waffle within three days and you're looking at day 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Heights are building over Greenland over the next 24hrs. It's transient. But I think we need to watch the -NAO appear in the shorter-term. When a bigger storm (deeper ULL/trough) over SE Canada is more likely show up in the ensemble means: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This wasn't the AO outcome that we wanted to see. But kudos to the upgraded GFS for not jumping on the stronger blocking near Greenland that the Euro was showing a few days ago. The recent ECMWF moved toward original GFS idea of stronger PV near Greenland. The ECMWF 276 hr forecast was provided as a free sample by WSI a few days ago on their twitter feed. Original GEFS vs. ECMWF ensemble means 276 hr forecast 0z 1-26 EURO.png gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png ECMWF ensemble moves to GEFS forecast of stronger PV near Greenland 0z 1-26 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png Starting mid week the following 2 weeks are flat out cold . I said 2 days ago that from Tuesday on your precip going forward during this time is snow or no . We probably get into a clipper pattern . I would not sleep on the EC as the vortex relaxes in between pulses as there is a lot of N branch energy being ejected east under the vortex it will not take much to catch the backside of a southern stream system and energize it . Right now that is not modeled with any certainty so I would look for smaller possibly frequent systems to ride through the flow . The coldest air of the season may be ahead of us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 not sure if you're kidding, but models waffle within three days and you're looking at day 15? I was not kidding. I was trying to determine if any expert thinks the model is kidding us! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Starting mid week the following 2 weeks are flat out cold . I said 2 days ago that from Tuesday on your precip going forward during this time is snow or no . We probably get into a clipper pattern . I would not sleep on the EC as the vortex relaxes in between pulses as there is a lot of N branch energy being ejected east under the vortex it will not take much to catch the backside of a southern stream system and energize it . Right now that is not modeled with any certainty so I would look for smaller possibly frequent systems to ride through the flow . The coldest air of the season may be ahead of us . The gfs doesn't agree. It gives us seasonable to below but not greatly so. I haven't seen the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It seems to me that both GEFS and EPS have some agreement on the cold moving forward. Hopefully, we can keep this look moving forward and add some well timed storms in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The gfs doesn't agree. It gives us seasonable to below but not greatly so. I haven't seen the Euro though. Do you just make S$%^ up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This wasn't the AO outcome that we wanted to see. But kudos to the upgraded GFS for not jumping on the stronger blocking near Greenland that the Euro was showing a few days ago. The recent ECMWF moved toward original GFS idea of stronger PV near Greenland. The ECMWF 276 hr forecast was provided as a free sample by WSI a few days ago on their twitter feed. Original GEFS vs. ECMWF ensemble means 276 hr forecast 0z 1-26 EURO.png gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_47.png ECMWF ensemble moves to GEFS forecast of stronger PV near Greenland 0z 1-26 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png they both knocked down the amplitude of the pac ridge. the PV is very resistant to disruption this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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