January Forecast Discussion

[Mophstymeo]

For those who are interested, the least seasonal snowfall in NYC is:

 

1. 1972-73 2.8"

2. 2001-02 3.5"

3. 1918-19 3.8"

4. 1931-32 5.3"

5. 1997-98 5.5"

6. 2011-12 7.4"

7. 1877-78 8.1"

    1988-89 8.1"

9. 1900-01 9.1"

 

To date, NYC has seen 3.2" snowfall.

Yikes.

[donsutherland1]

Also, to illustrate how the AO is important for the pattern, even as the EPO- has supplied cold, the following is a table I posted earlier in this thread:

 

 

Notice how the bad AO (AO+) early in the month, especially following a low snowfall December, skews the probabilities in favor of below normal January snowfall.

[uncle W]

For those who are interested, the least seasonal snowfall in NYC is:

 

1. 1972-73 2.8".....1.8"...January 29th

2. 2001-02 3.5".....3.0"...January 19th

3. 1918-19 3.8".....1.4"...March 28th

4. 1931-32 5.3".....2.0"...November  27th

5. 1997-98 5.5".....5.0"...March 22nd

6. 2011-12 7.4".....4.3"...January 21st

7. 1877-78 8.1".....8.0" est...January 31st-Feb 1st

    1988-89 8.1".....5.0"...January 6th

9. 1900-01 9.1".....4.0"...February 3rd-4th

 

To date, NYC has seen 3.2" snowfall.

I added the largest snowfall...I still think this year will end up acceptable...

[SnoSki14]

For those who are interested, the least seasonal snowfall in NYC is:

1. 1972-73 2.8"

2. 2001-02 3.5"

3. 1918-19 3.8"

4. 1931-32 5.3"

5. 1997-98 5.5"

6. 2011-12 7.4"

7. 1877-78 8.1"

1988-89 8.1"

9. 1900-01 9.1"

To date, NYC has seen 3.2" snowfall.

We're definitely not going to be in the bottom 5 the pattern alone seems to argue against that. Even the bottom 10 will be difficult to get into unless we're extremely unlucky even with probably the best snow pattern of the winter beginning late January.

[donsutherland1]

We're definitely not going to be in the bottom 5 the pattern alone seems to argue against that. Even the bottom 10 will be difficult to get into unless we're extremely unlucky even with probably the best snow pattern of the winter beginning late January.

I agree. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about February. Then we'll see what happens in March, as well.

[PB GFI]

I agree. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about February. Then we'll see what happens in March, as well.

 

The Euro is coast to coast cold once past Monday .

[Isotherm]

The Euro is coast to coast cold once past Monday .

 

 

Yeah, not sure why the second half of this month is being ignored.

[PB GFI]

Yeah, not sure why the second half of this month is being ignored.

 

KNYC probably  finishes -4 for Jan . ( maybe a tick lower )  

 

And for what everyone cares about ( SNOW )   IT`S ON .

 

There are certainly a few low end SW on the map . The high end one is there too , we just need to get lucky for it to drop .

 

The pattern is there . Now we wait .

[uncle W]

Yeah, not sure why the second half of this month is being ignored.

13 el nino years had some snowfall after the 20th...1966, 2004, 2005, 1987, 1952 were most notable...

[PB GFI]

it is not

but hey ...its the CPC 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

i bet them maps get humped 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015011512&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=430.6667

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015011512&fh=288&xpos=0&ypos=273.3333

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/15/two-week-outlook-seasonal-then-a-temperature-plunge-and-increased-odds-of-snow/

 

Wes is with us ....

[PB GFI]

day-10-prog.gif

 

Day Ten

Storm Track Guidance - ATM

 01/25 same time frame as the Euro Eye Candy 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015011512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

from the  GEFS-spag 12z run

 

let see how this goes

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20150115%2012%20UTC&param=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f216_us.html

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f240_us.html

Dude , no one is looking at a day 9 storm seriously .

[PB GFI]

I wonder if the best snow threat the next few weeks comes when the Arctic

cold begins to relax in early February? In any event that is a nice Arctic outbreak

being advertised day 11-15.

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_57.png

Our biggest storms like to trail the vortex out and come at the end of cold patterns .

 

So I would not disagree if I was going to look for it , it could be the caboose .

[PB GFI]

There is a day 5 -6 Clipper I would watch . Ignore stuff in the LR . Those day 9 -10 storms are on every run .

There could be something in front of it .

[H2Otown_WX]

Things just got a lot more interesting for the clipper next week: 

[JSantanaNYC]

The late week storm is OTS on the GFS, that's good to see at this range.

[PB GFI]

The -EPO has absolutely been crushing it in recent years. The ensembles agree on a strong Arctic HP

sliding down from Alaska late in the month. Maybe when that retreats to the east something tries to

run into the departing cold. 

You take that jet of Asia force that cold into Canada and build a POS PNA the cold air has no where to go but slide thru the lakes .

[NEG NAO]

Yeah, not sure why the second half of this month is being ignored.

Beause folks get the false impression that it is later in the month then it actually is because of reading longer range models and believing them - storms do pop up in the shorter range - we still have 16 days left in January

[JC-CT]

well then shame on me

for reading to much into your

its on for snow post----

 

Anyone can post a 10 day op surface run and stir things up

 

I just showed you how the GEFS  guidance

strongly disagrees with the euro threat for that timeframe

on multiple layers of the jet 

 

that's it plain and simple

 

dm

 

Can you explain to us weenies why a 564 track around 32.5N would result in a surface track south of the benchmark?

[PB GFI]

well then shame on me

for reading to much into your

its on for snow post----

 

Anyone can post a 10 day op surface run and stir things up

 

I just showed you how the GEFS  guidance

strongly disagrees with the euro threat for that timeframe

on multiple layers of the jet 

 

that's it plain and simple

 

dm

FULL POST

 

KNYC probably  finishes -4 for Jan . ( maybe a tick lower )  

 

And for what everyone cares about ( SNOW )   IT`S ON .

 

 

 

There are certainly a few low end SW on the maps . The high end one is there too , we just need to get lucky for it to drop .

 

The pattern is there . Now we wait .

 

 

 

And a clipper shows up at 18z for day 5 - Go figure .

[Nygmen]

day-10-prog.gif

 

Day Ten

Storm Track Guidance - ATM

 01/25 same time frame as the Euro Eye Candy 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015011512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

from the  GEFS-spag 12z run

 

let see how this goes

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20150115%2012%20UTC&param=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f216_us.html

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f240_us.html

i was seeing on other subforums that most of the GEFS were hits for that timeframe...

[PB GFI]

Check out these BL on the 18z in the LR KNYC could go  below 0 .

[JC-CT]

JC

 

is not just one 564 line

 of the gudance 

its the whole cluster that is south

along with the cluster of 200mb jet location

its deep ( digging south)

 

maybe a bit simple minded for ten days out

but it is what I use to rough out a sketch

in regards to storm tracks vs op run surface low progs 

 

it works for me

and I will follow it up for ya

 

dm

 

I didn't ask if it was just one 564 line that was south...I asked why you think the surface track should go over the 564 contour and not a few hundred miles north of it.

[JC-CT]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

[PB GFI]

My suggestion is , if you are on the warm train get off . Its over and what is coming on the back end of the month is flat out cold

KNYC is -3.7 through yesterday .

 

You have a 1 day warm up this weekend  ( THAT IS IT ) and we said that this was going to be muted even though some METS who crashed the board only a week ago said it was  a 5 to 7 day warm up if not longer .

 

KNYC should finish - 4 and if it ends up colder this poster will not be shocked .

Now as far as snow ...  I wish I knew for sure  but my best guess is when a pattern like this develops ( and its always possible ) you would have to be really unlucky not to snow with it .

 

This is probably a 15 day window to some damage, lets hope it does .

[stlirish]

My suggestion is , if you are on the warm train get off . Its over and what is coming on the back end of the month is flat out cold

KNYC is -3.7 through yesterday .

You have a 1 day warm up this weekend ( THAT IS IT ) and we said that this was going to be muted even though some METS who crashed the board only a week ago said it was a 5 to 7 day warm up if not longer .

KNYC should finish - 4 and if it ends up colder this poster will not be shocked .

Now as far as snow ... I wish I knew for sure but my best guess is when a pattern like this develops ( and its always possible ) you would have to be really unlucky not to snow with it .

This is probably a 15 day window to some damage, lets hope it does .

Thanks, PB! Really enjoy your insights and posts. The pattern we are getting into is definitely the best shot we'll have at a significant snow to date. Let's hope it all lines up.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mophstymeo]

The sad trend this winter has been that every time there's moisture around, the cold air recedes. The NWS has Wednesday next week at 40 degrees with, you guessed it, a chance at precipitation. Unless there's a real shift some time soon, Doorman will probably be proved frustratingly correct.

And before people pooh-pooh the NWS temperature forecast a week out, please remember they pegged Sunday's temps accurately from the same distance.

[Mophstymeo]

Thanks, PB! Really enjoy your insights and posts. The pattern we are getting into is definitely the best shot we'll have at a significant snow to date. Let's hope it all lines up.Sent from my iPhone

It's probably the best shot, but this is the winter of opposites.

[Superstorm93]

ECMWF keeps trending stronger with the projected negative NAO. The ECM Ensembles are also coming in colder and colder for the next 15 days as well with signs of a cross-polar flow setting up in tandem with the EPO once again crashing. By the look on them, January could end up much colder than most believed when the threat of a thaw was looking likely.  

 

Things are gradually transitioning from the doldrums of winter to some possibly exciting times towards the later part of this month with an enhanced threat of snow along the East. 

[Yanksfan]

ECMWF keeps trending stronger with the projected negative NAO. The ECM Ensembles are also coming in colder and colder for the next 15 days as well with signs of a cross-polar flow setting up in tandem with the EPO once again crashing. By the look on them, January could end up much colder than most believed when the threat of a thaw was looking likely.  

 

Things are gradually transitioning from the doldrums of winter to some possibly exciting times towards the later part of this month with an enhanced threat of snow along the East. 

Like I mentioned earlier today on another forum, If the pattern doesn't produce as far as significant snow is concerned within the mentioned time frame, I will have serious doubts that it ever will.

[SnoSki14]

It's no problem getting the cold. Latest gfs shows some of that arctic air in the LR but agree that timing precip with the cold has been a failure thus far. I like the consistency with that big miller A like storm though. Models can be very good at sniffing out major storms even at days 8-10.