PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Awesome..Euro gives us another rainstormy Yes, but then its on my man . The pattern after this is what we have been waiting for . Neg EPO - Pos PNA - Neg AO ( Hoping ) Neg NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Atleast the players we need are not in fantasy range. Right after the sunday rains should set the stage for legitimate storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 much more amplified than 0z... could be another day 5 hiccup in this +ao fast flow pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The Miller A storm for the 24th is OTS on the EURO. At least is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Soo in terms of sensible weather. .does it continue ...wash. Rinse..repeat ..cycle ...or after day 10 ...do we see real snow chances ?? Guess time will tell ..I don't believe any models just yet .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So was the 12z GFS today the same as what has been called the parallel GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 So was the 12z GFS today the same as what has been called the parallel GFS? Yes as of today's 12z GFS run its the new updated version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's great to see the higher ensemble and OP resolution showing up 192-384 with well defined ridge and trough areas on the 12z upgrade. Notice how everything looked all washed out long range on the 0z compared to the more defined 12z. Maybe we can get them to run the ensembles to 30 days a few days a week like the Euro. 0z http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html f384.gif 12z http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html f372.gif I am just happy with the higher res . I don`t want another bad weekly model ( the Euro weeklies ) . Its week 3 and especially week 4 are awful . At what range did the new GFS catch the Euro in the skill scoring ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's great to see the higher ensemble and OP resolution showing up 192-384 with well defined ridge and trough areas on the 12z upgrade. Notice how everything looked all washed out long range on the 0z compared to the more defined 12z. Maybe we can get them to run the ensembles to 30 days a few days a week like the Euro. Both maps are for 0z 1-30 0z http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html f384.gif 12z http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html f372.gif Only the operational GFS was upgraded today, the GEFS haven't been upgraded yet. Suppose to be Q1 of this year but will likely be pushed to Q2 or later, since no announcement has been made yet. See dtk's post: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44784-t1534-gfs-gfs-at-13km-along-with-other-upgrades-can-be-found-here/?p=3194213 Also NWS powerpoint: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fdatamgmt%2Fslide_show%2Flapenta_FOS_020614.ppt&ei=2dG2VOSuCPWLsQT-94DQCg&usg=AFQjCNHXexQk2DHZ037vmmSJQLOWHnLk1g&sig2=wz0-ZJAx5iVMZsDMmQx-BA&bvm=bv.83640239,d.cWc WMO pdf: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wmo.int%2Fpages%2Fprog%2Farep%2Fwwrp%2Fnew%2Fdocuments%2FWGNE29_MAR2014_NCEP_EKv3.pdf&ei=2dG2VOSuCPWLsQT-94DQCg&usg=AFQjCNFPf3uyWDjWDJwKYn4mH9pOr3MRrA&sig2=ayTtYJR4BgNoRei9JWMatg&bvm=bv.83640239,d.cWc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z ECM EPS continues the trend of looking excellent in the LR (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's okay to be skeptical if you are especially considering how things have gone but really things could only get better in the snow department. I'm on board the LR express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Strong support on the 12z EPS mean for a coastal storm on Sunday with a track near the twin forks and then up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Only the operational GFS was upgraded today, the GEFS haven't been upgraded yet. Suppose to be Q1 of this year but will likely be pushed to Q2 or later, since no announcement has been made yet. See dtk's post: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44784-t1534-gfs-gfs-at-13km-along-with-other-upgrades-can-be-found-here/?p=3194213 Also NWS powerpoint: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fdatamgmt%2Fslide_show%2Flapenta_FOS_020614.ppt&ei=2dG2VOSuCPWLsQT-94DQCg&usg=AFQjCNHXexQk2DHZ037vmmSJQLOWHnLk1g&sig2=wz0-ZJAx5iVMZsDMmQx-BA&bvm=bv.83640239,d.cWc WMO pdf: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wmo.int%2Fpages%2Fprog%2Farep%2Fwwrp%2Fnew%2Fdocuments%2FWGNE29_MAR2014_NCEP_EKv3.pdf&ei=2dG2VOSuCPWLsQT-94DQCg&usg=AFQjCNFPf3uyWDjWDJwKYn4mH9pOr3MRrA&sig2=ayTtYJR4BgNoRei9JWMatg&bvm=bv.83640239,d.cWc The ensemble mean 12z has better resolution than 0z did on PSU. Do you think that can be just from the operational alone making the mean more defined? http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html Ahead of this upgrade, each of the two operational supercomputers will first more than triple their current capacity later this month (to at least 0.776 petaflops for a total capacity of 1.552 petaflops). With this larger capacity, NOAA’s National Weather Service in January will begin running an upgraded version of theGlobal Forecast System (GFS) with greater resolution that extends further out in time – the new GFS will increase resolution from 27km to 13km out to 10 days and 55km to 33km for 11 to 16 days. In addition, theGlobal Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be upgraded by increasing the number of vertical levels from 42 to 64 and increasing the horizontal resolution from 55km to 27km out to eight days and 70km to 33km from days nine to 16. Ensemble mean before 12z GFS upgrade After 12z GFS upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Strong support on the 12z EPS mean for a coastal storm on Sunday with a track near the twin forks and then up into SNE. Good - need some rain to get rid of all the superfluous salt over everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18z GFS is OTS for the big storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18z GFS is OTS for the big storm next week. The synoptic pattern would favor the MA or a benchmark track right now, it'll change 10 times over but the models and ensembles have gravitated away from that period having the ridge further west and the cold dump into the west, hence I would lean away from a cutter idea for now but anything else is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The old motto . works for me ...you never want to be in the bulls eye so early in the game .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 1/18 - 1/19 Potential Coastal Storm Thread created http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45384-118-119-potential-coastal-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The storm is not totally out to sea in fact it is not going to be all liquid according to the 18Z GFS http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC Wrong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I am just happy with the higher res . I don`t want another bad weekly model ( the Euro weeklies ) . Its week 3 and especially week 4 are awful . At what range did the new GFS catch the Euro in the skill scoring ? I just wish all long range forecasts were as good as the JMA monthlies were for last winter. If an extended range model beyond 15 days gets just gets one or two major anomaly centers correct, then I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The EPS has very negative AO/EPO and moderately negative NAO at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The EPS has very negative AO/EPO and moderately negative NAO at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That has to be the best looking ENS map all season long. If that -NAO/AO/EPO verifies with the +PNA we're going to see some good chances in the future and possibly the coastals that we've been looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I just wish all long range forecasts were as good as the JMA monthlies were for last winter. If an extended range model beyond 15 days gets just gets one or two major anomaly centers correct, then I am happy. They went wire to wire last year. They aced that pattern . Glad the the resolution is getting better period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Some of those nice looking long range models and ensembles are really toying with us. Hopefully they're correct it would be nice to get something. I wonder how the new gfs will perform versus the Euro and if it's going to be the new sheriff in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here we go . Day 9 so take lightly . But still nice to look at regardless . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here we go . Day 9 so take lightly . But still nice to look at regardless . That is SECSy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015011412&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=266 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015011412/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png 1008mb will not get it done!!! 1010mb on the GEFS -ENS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015011418/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_37.png but the track is NICE opcorn: The mean is only that high because of the spread, it's 200+ hours out. The members that actually take a similar track to the mean are all sub 1000mb, at least on the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Just reviewed the 12z gfs model. No projected significant snow weather events for the next 10 days. ( strong odds of occuring) Possible rain event around day 13 or 14. (medium odds of occuring) This leave us a very small window for snow around the 22nd to 30th. I may hendge my bets that central park gets less than 3 inches of snow for the month at this point. If this occurs, we may need to start talking about chasing records for least snowfall in a season. Best GFS model has been perfoming the best in years imop. Checked out the 12Z model run today for a peak into the next 5-15 days. Rain event looks likely for this Sunday-Monday around the Big Apple. Possibly some snow in the burbs to the NW. After the storm passes, long range looks chilly and dry. Any chances of significant snow will now occur in the final 2-4 days of the month. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 For those who are interested, the least seasonal snowfall in NYC is: 1. 1972-73 2.8" 2. 2001-02 3.5" 3. 1918-19 3.8" 4. 1931-32 5.3" 5. 1997-98 5.5" 6. 2011-12 7.4" 7. 1877-78 8.1" 1988-89 8.1" 9. 1900-01 9.1" To date, NYC has seen 3.2" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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