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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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700mb is pretty cold and 850's are below freezing at the height of the event West of the city. The only warm layer is 925mb to the surface so it's a snow/rain mix profile or non accumulating snow profile, but you have some room for dynmaic cooling in there if you can get robust enough precip.

Flow is a bit too fast to allow for a deep enough system to form. That is likely going to be a continued issue for this system over the next few days. However, the PAC may be devoid of strong enough energy to kick it OTS, so I do think this has a decent chance of being close to the coast. Airmass just kind of sucks unfortunately.

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The NWS has us in the low- to mid-40s on Sunday and Monday, so if anything falls, it'll be rain. Of course, this is almost a week away, the storm might not even be real, the temps could be higher or lower, etc. Seems to be the story of this winter so far, though. Whenever there's precipitation, it's 40 degrees.

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The NWS has us in the low- to mid-40s on Sunday and Monday, so if anything falls, it'll be rain. Of course, this is almost a week away, the storm might not even be real, the temps could be higher or lower, etc. Seems to be the story of this winter so far, though. Whenever there's precipitation, it's 40 degrees.

and if the NWS was always right 6 days out with temperature profiles we wouldnt have such a headache forecasting most storms...smh some people man

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and if the NWS was always right 6 days out with temperature profiles we wouldnt have such a headache forecasting most storms...smh some people man

Maybe. They were right about yesterday's storm and the temps since last week. Then again, maybe they're wrong. Still, if I were a betting man, I'd bet rain and 40. (I hope I'm wrong, btw.)

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Anyone notice the December PDO? Wow. Highest Dec value on record at 2.51:

 

2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51

 

 

Very strong correlation for the maintenance of a mean +PNA state which would be conducive for our purposes going forward.

 

anomnight.1.12.2015.gif

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And for it`s 1st day on the job , 

yes maybe this new upgrade will be the good luck charm we need - like I said previously 77 -78 still the top analog - may not have the same MJO or indicie levels but it may get there a different way...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011412&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=1198

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The AAM spike coupled w/ the progression of convection eastward and downwelling of the recent SSW indicate to me that the Arctic height rises in the medium term are real; I'm less confident on a strong -NAO, though I think the neutralization of the index is likely and will be a vast improvement over the prior 60 days.

 

By the way, the 15-20th period which was initially progged to be +AO is now -AO for the period. Today is the last progged +AO day on the ECMWF ensembles. Far cry from forecasts a week ago which suggested a +AO through the end of January.

 

eps_ao_00.png

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The AAM spike coupled w/ the progression of convection eastward and downwelling of the recent SSW indicate to me that the Arctic height rises in the medium term are real; I'm less confident on a strong -NAO, though I think the neutralization of the index is likely and will be a vast improvement over the prior 60 days.

 

By the way, the 15-20th period which was initially progged to be +AO is now -AO for the period. Today is the last progged +AO day on the ECMWF ensembles. Far cry from forecasts a week ago which suggested a +AO through the end of January.

 

 

Tom, can you explain the recent wild forecast swings with the LR models?

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 not just   348 hrs  euro ensemble in this  winter or really  bad   Long range  performance  but the  CONTROL  RUN of the  ECMWF  ... which is  run a   much  lower resolution ?

Just  wwow 

 

 

Probably too extreme , but for all of us who agree how hard KNYC is to get to 0 or below this would do it .

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Tom, can you explain the recent wild forecast swings with the LR models?

 

 

Nutley, I think the recent stratospheric warming has probably forced models to correct gradually more negative w/ the AO as we move forward. Additionally, the GFS and ECMWF were quite different in their forecasted MJO / tropical convection progression. For awhile, the GFS was propagating the wave further east / more bullish and thus initiating a more favorable high latitude regime. The ECMWF had been killing the tropical wave, and so held onto the +AO for longer. Now, the ECMWF and GFS are in virtual agreement on the tropical forcing and both develop the -AO signal. Funny, the ECMWF is more bullish on a medium term -NAO which may be transient for next week. However, it seems likely that the first half of winter strong +AO regime is generally over.

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IF  this   drop into  negative  AO   land  does occur... it would be only the 2nd time  since DEC 1

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.jpg

It will be interesting to see if the drop occurs. So far, the lowest AO value since December 1 is -1.280 on December 28. Only 3 of the first 45 days of meteorological winter have seen the AO fall to -1 or below.

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Nutley, I think the recent stratospheric warming has probably forced models to correct gradually more negative w/ the AO as we move forward. Additionally, the GFS and ECMWF were quite different in their forecasted MJO / tropical convection progression. For awhile, the GFS was propagating the wave further east / more bullish and thus initiating a more favorable high latitude regime. The ECMWF had been killing the tropical wave, and so held onto the +AO for longer. Now, the ECMWF and GFS are in virtual agreement on the tropical forcing and both develop the -AO signal. Funny, the ECMWF is more bullish on a medium term -NAO which may be transient for next week. However, it seems likely that the first half of winter strong +AO regime is generally over.

Maybe we will get that back loaded winter after all. :snowing:

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