JSantanaNYC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The surface is in the great lakes...Might end as some light snow. It's 100% rain for us verbatiam...take the snow goggles off. It's not all about that blue line! Sounds like a repeat from every storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 700mb is pretty cold and 850's are below freezing at the height of the event West of the city. The only warm layer is 925mb to the surface so it's a snow/rain mix profile or non accumulating snow profile, but you have some room for dynmaic cooling in there if you can get robust enough precip. Flow is a bit too fast to allow for a deep enough system to form. That is likely going to be a continued issue for this system over the next few days. However, the PAC may be devoid of strong enough energy to kick it OTS, so I do think this has a decent chance of being close to the coast. Airmass just kind of sucks unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well the 18z GFS is tucked right into the coast but doesn't throw back any moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ParA 996 into sne Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well the 18z GFS is tucked right into the coast but doesn't throw back any moisture. May need to keep an eye on this possible storm. Interior looks cold enough, just need some moisture. Not asking for much this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 ParA 996 into sne Sunday night Does it have precip here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The NWS has us in the low- to mid-40s on Sunday and Monday, so if anything falls, it'll be rain. Of course, this is almost a week away, the storm might not even be real, the temps could be higher or lower, etc. Seems to be the story of this winter so far, though. Whenever there's precipitation, it's 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Does it have precip here?Yes, rain. It's essentially the same track as the old GFS with a lot more moisture onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The NWS has us in the low- to mid-40s on Sunday and Monday, so if anything falls, it'll be rain. Of course, this is almost a week away, the storm might not even be real, the temps could be higher or lower, etc. Seems to be the story of this winter so far, though. Whenever there's precipitation, it's 40 degrees. and if the NWS was always right 6 days out with temperature profiles we wouldnt have such a headache forecasting most storms...smh some people man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and if the NWS was always right 6 days out with temperature profiles we wouldnt have such a headache forecasting most storms...smh some people man Maybe. They were right about yesterday's storm and the temps since last week. Then again, maybe they're wrong. Still, if I were a betting man, I'd bet rain and 40. (I hope I'm wrong, btw.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Cooling down nicely at 16 degrees after midnight high of 35.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Probably too extreme , but for all of us who agree how hard KNYC is to get to 0 or below this would do it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Do the new upgrades kick in at the 12z runs today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Do the new upgrades kick in at the 12z runs today? It's supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah, they are set to. The sign that the GFS has upgraded will be no decrease in resolution between 192 and 240 which will look obvious. Yes and it could make a world of difference in terms of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Anyone notice the December PDO? Wow. Highest Dec value on record at 2.51: 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 Very strong correlation for the maintenance of a mean +PNA state which would be conducive for our purposes going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The 12z GFS gives Western sections a little snow on Sunday afternoon. 1000mb near the twin forks but most of the precip stays offshore. The surface hangs back over NW NJ but the rest of the layers are cold until about the Suffolk County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And for it`s 1st day on the job , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And for it`s 1st day on the job , yes maybe this new upgrade will be the good luck charm we need - like I said previously 77 -78 still the top analog - may not have the same MJO or indicie levels but it may get there a different way... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011412&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=1198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The AAM spike coupled w/ the progression of convection eastward and downwelling of the recent SSW indicate to me that the Arctic height rises in the medium term are real; I'm less confident on a strong -NAO, though I think the neutralization of the index is likely and will be a vast improvement over the prior 60 days. By the way, the 15-20th period which was initially progged to be +AO is now -AO for the period. Today is the last progged +AO day on the ECMWF ensembles. Far cry from forecasts a week ago which suggested a +AO through the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The AAM spike coupled w/ the progression of convection eastward and downwelling of the recent SSW indicate to me that the Arctic height rises in the medium term are real; I'm less confident on a strong -NAO, though I think the neutralization of the index is likely and will be a vast improvement over the prior 60 days. By the way, the 15-20th period which was initially progged to be +AO is now -AO for the period. Today is the last progged +AO day on the ECMWF ensembles. Far cry from forecasts a week ago which suggested a +AO through the end of January. Tom, can you explain the recent wild forecast swings with the LR models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Our new real-time ENSO+MJO analogs for the next 30 days. Quite the pattern for US cold if right. Small N size though-WSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 not just 348 hrs euro ensemble in this winter or really bad Long range performance but the CONTROL RUN of the ECMWF ... which is run a much lower resolution ?Just wwow Probably too extreme , but for all of us who agree how hard KNYC is to get to 0 or below this would do it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 IF this drop into negative AO land does occur... it would be only the 2nd time since DEC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Tom, can you explain the recent wild forecast swings with the LR models? Nutley, I think the recent stratospheric warming has probably forced models to correct gradually more negative w/ the AO as we move forward. Additionally, the GFS and ECMWF were quite different in their forecasted MJO / tropical convection progression. For awhile, the GFS was propagating the wave further east / more bullish and thus initiating a more favorable high latitude regime. The ECMWF had been killing the tropical wave, and so held onto the +AO for longer. Now, the ECMWF and GFS are in virtual agreement on the tropical forcing and both develop the -AO signal. Funny, the ECMWF is more bullish on a medium term -NAO which may be transient for next week. However, it seems likely that the first half of winter strong +AO regime is generally over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 IF this drop into negative AO land does occur... it would be only the 2nd time since DEC 1 ao.sprd2.jpg It will be interesting to see if the drop occurs. So far, the lowest AO value since December 1 is -1.280 on December 28. Only 3 of the first 45 days of meteorological winter have seen the AO fall to -1 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Nutley, I think the recent stratospheric warming has probably forced models to correct gradually more negative w/ the AO as we move forward. Additionally, the GFS and ECMWF were quite different in their forecasted MJO / tropical convection progression. For awhile, the GFS was propagating the wave further east / more bullish and thus initiating a more favorable high latitude regime. The ECMWF had been killing the tropical wave, and so held onto the +AO for longer. Now, the ECMWF and GFS are in virtual agreement on the tropical forcing and both develop the -AO signal. Funny, the ECMWF is more bullish on a medium term -NAO which may be transient for next week. However, it seems likely that the first half of winter strong +AO regime is generally over. Maybe we will get that back loaded winter after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The Euro is a pouring heavy rain for Sunday and Sunday night. Inland runner. Gives the Poconos and portions of Upstate NY a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 996mb near Springflield, MA. Tries to give us some wrap around snows as it closes off near DC at H5. Yes...save your breath on the wrap around comments. We already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Bit of a dry slot just East of NYC because the low tracks overhead but it's still 0.75"+. NYC is 1.00"+ with some areas 1.50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.